The news of the Titans releasing former 1st round pick Treylon Burks made me smile. And not because I’m happy Burks was cut. (That’s cruel. I don’t root for people to lose their jobs unless they’re terrible people.)
No, it made me smile because on draft day in 2022, the Eagles traded their 1st round pick to the Titans – the same pick that they used to draft Burks – for A.J. Brown. And that trade has vaulted my Philadelphia Eagles to the top of the NFC, having reached two Super Bowls in Brown’s three seasons in Philly, winning one just last year.
It’s clear that Brown has helped transform the Eagles’ passing game. And as a result, he’s been a top fantasy receiver as well. But after the Eagles ran the ball a league-high 621 times, while attempting a league-low 448 pass attempts, Brown seems to be a forgotten asset among the hierarchy of fantasy football wide receivers.
I’m here to tell you why that’s a mistake.
A.J. Brown 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Brown’s Career in a Nutshell
In three seasons with the Eagles, A.J. Brown has averaged 133 targets, 87 receptions, 1344 receiving yards, and 8 TDs per season. His 85.8 receiving yards per game ranks 6th in the NFL over that time, and he has the highest yards per reception among qualified receivers with 15.4. He also has the fourth-most receiving yards and 7th seventh-most receiving TDs over the last three seasons.
We can even look at some of the advanced analytics to further prove the point. In his six seasons in the NFL, Brown has never finished lower than ninth in the NFL in yards per route run. According to the Utilization Report over on Fantasy Life, Brown had the highest percentage of WR targets on his respective team and the highest percentage of team air yards.
Long story short, Brown is one of the ELITE wide receivers in the NFL. So, can someone explain to me why so many people are choosing not to take him as a top-10 WR?
Run-Heavy Offense
Last season, there were six teams that had over 525 rush attempts. These are the teams I would call “run-heavy.” Some of these teams sport some pretty awesome WRs that are getting drafted high, guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Terry McLaurin, and DK Metcalf.
The common thought is that if a team runs a lot, they throw the ball less often. And seeing as how three of these top six teams in rushing also threw the ball less than 500 times, it’s not a misleading thought.
In fact, four teams had fewer than 500 pass attempts – the Eagles, Ravens, Packers, and Steelers. A.J. Brown was the highest-scoring WR in fantasy PPG among those teams at WR13. Next closest was his teammate, DeVonta Smith, at WR17. You have to go all the way down to WR35 before you get to Ravens WR Zay Flowers. So, while the notion that running more hurts the ceiling of WRs, the proof is in the pudding that it doesn’t hurt A.J. Brown (and DeVonta Smith, for that matter).
What Can Brown Do For You
It’s less about what he can do for you and more about what he does for you. In Brown’s three seasons in Philly, the Eagles have ranked 23rd, 21st, and 32nd in pass attempts. Yes, they’re in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts, but if you can’t look at these finishes and see that last year was an anomaly, you may as well stop reading.
In each of the last three seasons, Brown’s target share among Eagles WRs has been 28%, 30%, and 35%. Brown averaged 8.5, 9.3, and 7.5 targets per game over those three seasons. His total target share percentages were 27%, 28.1%, and 21.6%. He’s also averaged 17.0, 13.7, and 16.1 yards per reception.
If we use the middle ground of a 25% target share and a minimum of 500 pass attempts, that’s only 125 targets. His low number of targets per game over the last three seasons gets him around 128 targets. You know who had fewer targets than that and is being drafted only 1 spot behind A.J. Brown? Ladd McConkey. You know what else is funny? The Chargers threw the ball the fifth-fewest times in the NFL last year. AND YET, there are plenty of people who think McConkey can outproduce AJ Brown in fantasy this year. BuT hE’s In A rUn-FiRsT oFfEnSe.
Just tell me you’re biased against the Eagles without telling me you’re biased against the Eagles.
Don’t miss our final team preview of the 2025 Season, as we break down the Eagles!
2025 is a New Year
Look, Saquon Barkley isn’t going to have 345 rushing attempts in 2025. If he does, his legs might fall off in 2026. A.J. Brown will be an essential piece of the Eagles’ passing attack (and their offense as a whole) in 2025. If he played all 17 games last season, his pace would’ve netted him 88 catches, 1,411 yards, and 9 TDs. He would’ve finished as the WR4. And that would’ve only been on 126 targets.
In 2022 and 2023, Brown combined for 303 targets. I don’t know how many ways I can tell you that Brown is going to see in excess of 140 targets over a full 17-game season. And considering his career average of 15.8 yards per reception and the fact he’s eclipsed 16 yards per reception in two of his three seasons in Philly, Brown is a good bet to maintain pace with some of the youngsters that are being drafted inside the top 8 – Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, and Brian Thomas Jr. to name a few.
But if you’re someone who thinks Ladd McConkey or Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be top-12 receivers, just remember that they too find themselves in offenses that will be running the football a ton, with not a lot of passing volume. And remember who outscored them both in PPG in 2024 on far fewer targets.
Good things happen when you draft A.J. Brown. So remember THAT on draft day.
Looking for your favorite team? This link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Philadelphia Eagles
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on AJ Brown in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Eagles from Ryan Weisse.
Jalen Hurts
Over the last four seasons, Hurts has 52 rushing scores to go along with his 79 passing touchdowns. He finds the endzone plenty, but the lack of passing volume does seem to cap his upside from falling into that “Elite” category. He’s usually being drafted as the QB4 or 5 in fantasy drafts, and that is probably right where he belongs. Some see him as the bottom of Tier 1; I see him as the top of Tier 2. No knock on Hurts, I just don’t see a world where he beats Allen, Jackson, or Daniels for fantasy purposes.
Saquon Barkley
I could sit here and tell you why his 2024 volume is a huge red flag heading into 2025, but Josh Hudson already did that. Barkley is a great back; there is no point in arguing that. But betting on him to repeat in fantasy feels like a mistake, and that is exactly what you are doing at his current ADP. We’re not saying he’s falling off the planet, just that RB10 production is a lot more likely than RB1.
Will Shipley
With the history of injury for 2000-yard backs and 350+ carry backs, Saquon Barkley’s backup could be interesting. Shipley will have to beat out AJ Dillon, which shouldn’t be too hard. He also has some receiving chops, too, so he could be used in more of a change-of-pace role this season if the team wants to preserve their lead back. Basically, if you drafted Saquon Barkley with your first pick, Will Shipley should be your last pick.
DeVonta Smith
Smith is one of the few WR2s in the league that could still be a WR1 in fantasy. The difference between Smith and the others in this category is that he is doing it in spite of a low-passing-volume offense. Smith had 1000-yard seasons in 2022 and 2023. He missed four games last year and still hit 833 yards, meaning he was pacing for 1088 yards. He’s also scored seven, seven, and eight TDs in those three seasons. He is just about as consistent as they come and the perfect WR2 on your fantasy team.
Dallas Goedert
The emergence of Brown and Smith has turned Goefert into “Just-A-Guy” for fantasy. Over the last three seasons, he has just eight TDs, and his total yards have declined every year. As with most tight ends, he’s more of a streaming option than a weekly start.
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Before you go, see where AJ Brown and the rest of the Eagles land in our 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings!
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