Following 2,000 — What Will Saquon Barkley Do For An Encore?

The Philadelphia Eagles’ rushing attack in 2024 was nothing short of spectacular. They led the league in attempts with 621, finished second in total rushing yards with 3,048, and tied for second with 29 rushing touchdowns.

Oh, and the offense featured only the ninth person ever to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season.

Saquon Barkley’s 2,000-yard season was one for the history books. He managed to top 2,000 yards in 16 games, sitting out Week 17 in preparation for the playoffs. Considering the opponent was his former team, the New York Giants, many were left unsatisfied that he wouldn’t break the single-season rushing record against the team that famously decided not to re-sign him in free agency.

Sitting out the final game proved worth it. Barkley would help lead the Eagles to their second-ever Super Bowl win, while setting the single-season record for rushing yards in a season, regular and postseason combined.

The statistical feats are extremely impressive. But after playing 19 games and logging 436 rush attempts (including another 46 receptions), it’s fair to wonder what kind of season Barkley can muster in 2025. With this being Barkley’s first season over 300 carries, how much will his production decline?

Can Saquon Barkley Repeat His 2024 Success?

Wear and Tear

For a long time, there was a common belief in fantasy football circles of “The Curse of 300.” It was simple: while fantasy football managers love a workhorse RB, logging over 300 carries often proved to be too much for a running back to sustain over multiple seasons at top-end production. Their stats inevitably suffered, whether due to injury or increased workload.

I went all the way back to 2007 to chart RBs who topped 300 carries. Between 2007 and 2024, there were 48 RBs who logged 300 or more carries in a season. Of those, 91.67% saw their workloads decrease the following year. A further 87.5% saw their production dip. The data that I found most interesting was seeing what kind of production these RBs had in their follow-up seasons:

• 35 RBs produced at least 55% of their previous yardage totals
• 27 produced at least 70% of their previous yardage totals
• 15 produced at least 85% of their previous yardage totals

In short, 72.9% of RBs since 2007 have rushed for at least 55% of their previous season’s rushing totals.  While a decline seems inevitable, these stats also show that 8-13% didn’t see less work or worse production. So, it’s not unheard of for a running back to improve after logging 300 or more carries in a season. That’s a promising start when trying to predict Saquon Barkley’s future production.

Age is also a factor

Age is a running back’s worst enemy. For a position with arguably the shortest shelf life in the NFL, RBs seemingly take the most hits, thus shortening their career output.

The age range of RBs who have handled more than 300 rushing attempts in a season looks like a Jackson Pollock painting: they’re all over the place. However, the worst follow-up seasons have skewed to RBs 28 and older.

Barkley had his spectacular 2024 at the age of 27. Which means he’s playing 2025 at the age of 28. So, how well did RBs at age 28 or older perform after logging over 300 carries?

From 2007 to 2024, 16 RBs had a season with 300+ carries at 27 or older. That’s one-third of all 300-carry backs in that span. The good news? Only four of them produced less than 55% of their output from the previous season.

• 12 of 16 produced at least 55% of their rushing output
• 8 of 16 produced at least 70% of their rushing output
• 6 of 16 produced at least 85% of their rushing output

This further shows that Barkley has an excellent chance of at least topping 1,100 rushing yards in 2025. But on how many carries?

If we use the same 16 RBs during their age 28 or older season, here’s where their workloads fit:

• 11 of 16 handled at least 70% of their workload
• 6 of 16 handed at least 85% of their workload
• 1 of 16 exceeded their workload from the previous year

While 300 carries is a strong possibility for Barkley in 2025, the data shows he’s more likely to finish in the 70% range for carries, putting him closer to 250 than 300.

How did the 2,000-yard rushers fare?

Let’s shrink the player pool some. While the 300+ carry mark gives us a great benchmark in trying to predict Barkley’s encore season, there’s one more benchmark we’ve yet to discuss: 2,000-yard rushers.

As previously mentioned, Barkley is only the ninth RB ever to eclipse 2,000 yards. Of the eight 2,000-yard rushers before Barkley, six of them rushed for over 1,000 yards the following season. That’s a good thing!

Only three running backs followed up their 2,000-yard season with a greater than 60% of their 2,000-yard season. The good news? Two of those three were 28 years or older.

So what does it all mean?

What will Saquon do for an encore?

When the data looks promising, it’s easy to get sucked into the hype.

The history of 300-carry rushers suggests that Barkley is very likely to eclipse 1,100 yards in 2025. That’s obviously a huge dip in production from last year, but still a very good season for a running back in today’s NFL. When you couple that with the small sample size of the history of 2,000-yard rushers, the data is backed up.

History also suggests that it’s not unheard of for 28-year old RBs to have quality seasons one year removed from a 300-carry season.

Let’s also not forget that the Eagles sport an offensive line that is arguably the best in football, and a QB who has rushed for over 600 yards in each of the last four seasons. These are all factors that help keep defenses honest, creating rushing lanes.

I think Barkley is a good bet to hit 300 carries again simply because of the way the Eagles have used their RBs over the last four seasons. But for those who think he sniffs 2,000 again, even 1,500 yards, might be in for a rude awakening. No 2,000-yard rusher has hit 1,500 yards in their follow-up season. You’d be betting on an outlier, and that’s not smart money early in your fantasy drafts.

Saquon Barkley’s ADP currently sits as RB1. Is this because people think he can replicate 70% of his 2024 production and outpace all the other RBs in the league? Or do people just view him as the safest bet for 300+ carries when only six RBs have even sniffed 300 carries in the last two seasons?

Whatever the reason, you should join me in fading Barkley at his current RB1 ADP. Bet on some of the younger RBs who had outstanding 2024 seasons, or just pivot and take a WR.

And I say all this as an Eagles fan. Just know, it’s still GO BIRDS.

---

Do you think Saquon Barkley can repeat his 2000-yard season? Feel free to @ me on X/Twitter, Instagram, or Blue Sky and let’s discuss! You can also find more great content from Club Fantasy here!