NFL Touchdown Props: Learning from Last Season and Adjustments for 2025

Last September, I published an article diving into one of my favorite NFL futures markets: season-long touchdown props. You can read the article here, but the goal was simple: identify player props that were either undervalued or destined to bust. I went 4 for 8. A coin flip. Not a disaster, but not quite the edge I was hoping for either.

With the 2025 season around the corner, it’s time to not just revisit the picks but dissect what went right, what went wrong, and, more importantly, how I’m adjusting to improve this year.

2024 Recap: My 8 NFL Touchdown Props

Bijan Robinson – Over 6.5 Rushing TDs

Result: 14 TDs — Win

Takeaway: Arthur Smith’s exit and a real offensive coordinator unlocked Bijan’s scoring upside. I believed in the talent and projected a role increase correctly.

Tyreek Hill – Over 9.5 Receiving TDs

Result: 6 TDs — Loss

Takeaway: I underestimated how TDs could swing in Miami’s high-octane but egalitarian offense. Hill saw monster yardage, but TDs weren’t as concentrated.

Derrick Henry – Over 10.5 Rushing TDs

Result: 14 TDs — Win

Takeaway: Fading King Henry in scoring formats? Not on my watch. The usage near the goal line never disappeared. A textbook power-run bet.

Ja’Marr Chase – Over 9.5 Receiving TDs

Result: 17 TDs — Win

Takeaway: When Joe Burrow is healthy, Chase is a red zone monster. This was a bet on talent + chemistry, and it paid off.

Christian McCaffrey – Over 5.5 Receiving TDs

Result: Missed due to injury — Loss

Takeaway: Betting on receiving TDs for an RB, even one as dynamic as CMC, is a fragile proposition. Add in injury volatility, and this felt forced in hindsight.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Over 8.5 Receiving TDs

Result: 12 TDs — Win

Takeaway: Bankable target share and red zone usage. This was a sharp call and aligned with Detroit’s offensive surge.

Jake Ferguson – Over 5.5 Receiving TDs

Result: Dud season — Loss

Takeaway: Chased a breakout, ignored surrounding offensive risk. Dak didn’t lock onto Ferguson in the red zone the way I hoped.

Lamar Jackson – Over 5.5 Rushing TDs

Result: 4 TDs — Loss

Takeaway: Todd Monken’s offense reduced Lamar’s designed runs, especially near the goal line. A bet on old tendencies that didn’t align with new realities.

What I Learned

Volume Still Rules, but Role is King

I got caught up in projecting total volume (targets, carries) without fully understanding how and where those opportunities occurred. Lamar still ran, but not in scoring areas. Hill still dominated, but wasn’t the red zone favorite.

Stay Skeptical of Receiving TD Props for RBs

Even for elite pass-catching backs, receiving TDs are high-variance. CMC’s 5.5 line was steep and relied on perfection. I won’t fall for that again in 2025.

Injury Volatility Is Real—Account for It

CMC and Ferguson weren’t 100% for long stretches. Targeting durable players or building in volatility buffers is a must.

Familiarity with Offensive Schemes Matters More Than You Think

I underestimated the impact of the new coaching staff and playcallers on usage, especially in red zone schemes (see: Lamar & Ferguson).

Target Concentration & Scoring Distribution

Not all elite WRs are equal. Hill had the yards, but not the TDs. In 2025, I’m weighing team scoring distribution heavily in my process.

Adjusting for 2025

• Favor Rushing TDs Over Receiving for Props
  They’re easier to project and less volatile year to year.

• Lean Into Role Clarity & Red Zone Usage
  Who’s being schemed near the goal line matters more than who racks up yards. TDs are often manufactured.

• Fade the Flash. Embrace the Boring
  Ferguson was sexy. Henry was boring. The boring guys often have more defined, stable TD roles.

• Diversify Prop Types
  Consider mixing in combo TDs (rushing + receiving), or even look for alternate totals at better odds if you have conviction.

Closing Thoughts

While winning 4 of 8 wasn’t a disaster, this isn’t about batting .500. The goal is to build smarter bets, rooted in role, scheme, and usage without ignoring risk. This year, I’ll be attacking these props with a refined process. Less “what could be,” more “what is.”

I’ll be dropping my 2025 NFL Touchdown Props soon—hopefully with a better than 50% win rate and a few cash tickets to celebrate in January.

Until then—bet smart, bet responsibly, and trust the role.

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Hopefully, you enjoyed this look back on our 2024 NFL Touchdown Props! Be sure you’re following Jay on X/Twitter! You can also find more great fantasy football content from Club Fantasy here!