As the 2024 NFL season kicks off, one of the most exciting ways to engage with the action is through season-long touchdown prop bets. These wagers allow bettors to forecast the scoring prowess of key players over the course of the entire season, adding a layer of excitement that extends beyond individual games.
Whether you’re betting on a superstar’s consistency or predicting a breakout campaign for emerging talent, touchdown props offer a thrilling way to blend strategy with anticipation. In this article, we’ll dive into eight intriguing season-long touchdown props. Each prop spotlights a player poised to make waves in 2024. From high-profile running backs to wide receivers and a quarterback, these bets provide a snapshot of the potential scoring leaders who could define the season.
2024 NFL Prop Bets
Derrick Henry: 10.5 Rushing Touchdowns
(2023 Season- 280/1167/12TDs)
Baltimore has consistently been one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams, even with a dynamic quarterback like Lamar Jackson. This aligns well with Henry’s style of play. The Ravens built their offense to control the clock and pound the ball on the ground. This style will give Henry plenty of opportunities to score.
Given his size and power, Henry would likely be the primary option near the goal line. The Ravens often run the ball in close, and Henry will easily become their go-to back in these situations. This opportunity should lead to a high touchdown count.
While Lamar Jackson’s ability to run is a factor, it could actually open up opportunities for Henry. Defenses must account for Jackson’s mobility. That focus could lead to fewer defenders keying on Henry, especially in the red zone, giving him cleaner looks to punch it in.
Baltimore traditionally has a strong offensive line, which would benefit Henry greatly. Running behind a solid line would give Henry the blocking he needs to make explosive plays and reach the end zone.
The Ravens’ offense, with a more balanced attack between the run and pass compared to the Titans, could keep defenses guessing. This unpredictability should make it easier for Henry to find the end zone. Teams wouldn’t be able to stack the box as consistently.
While the AFC North has some tough defenses, the physical nature of the division could play into Henry’s hands. He’s known for wearing down defenses over the course of a game. Henry could thrive in a division where teams win games in the trenches.
Derrick Henry could certainly still surpass 10.5 total touchdowns. The Ravens’ offensive system and his role as a lead back would provide ample opportunities for him to find the end zone. I’m taking the over on this prop bet.
Bijan Robinson: 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns
(2023 Season – 214/976/4TDs)
As the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bijan Robinson was supposed to be the focal point of the Falcons’ rushing attack. We all thought the Falcons drafted him to be their workhorse, meaning he’d get the bulk of the carries, particularly in the red zone, where rushing touchdowns are most likely. That did not happen. Why will the 2024 season be different?
The Falcons’ offense will likely emphasize power running, giving Robinson numerous opportunities to punch the ball into the end zone.
Robinson’s size, vision, and power make him a natural fit for goal-line situations. The Falcons will likely lean on him in short-yardage scenarios, especially near the goal line. That’s where he can capitalize on his physicality to score rushing touchdowns.
The Falcons have invested in their offensive line, aiming to create a strong foundation for the running game. A solid offensive line is crucial for a successful rushing attack, particularly in the red zone. With better blocking up front, Robinson should have ample space to find the end zone.
Robinson is a versatile back who can run effectively between the tackles and bounce outside. His ability to excel in various rushing schemes allows the Falcons to get creative with how they use him. This creativity will increase his chances of finding the end zone through different types of running plays.
The presence of other offensive threats like Drake London and Kyle Pitts helps prevent defenses from stacking the box against Robinson. With defenses having to account for the Falcons’ passing game, Robinson will face fewer eight-man boxes. That should give him a better chance to score on his rushing attempts.
The NFC South features several teams with defenses that have struggled against the run. Robinson will have multiple opportunities to take advantage of these matchups, potentially leading to multi-touchdown games that help him surpass 6.5 rushing touchdowns for the season.
The Falcons should be competitive in most of their games. That should allow them to maintain a balanced offensive approach. If the Falcons are frequently in close games or leading, they’ll rely on Robinson to control the clock and finish drives with rushing touchdowns.
Bijan Robinson is well-positioned to surpass 6.5 rushing touchdowns in the 2024 season. His role as the centerpiece of the Falcons’ ground game, his talent, and the team’s offensive philosophy make this a very achievable goal.
Amon Ra St. Brown: 8.5 Receiving Touchdowns
(2023 Season – 119/1515/10TDs)
St. Brown is the clear No. 1 receiver for the Lions. He has consistently been Jared Goff‘s go-to option, especially in crucial situations like third downs and in the red zone. With this volume of targets, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to score.
St. Brown is an elite route runner with a knack for getting open, particularly in the short to intermediate areas of the field. This skill set is often critical in redzone situations. His ability to create separation and find soft spots in coverage makes him a reliable target for touchdowns. Under coordinator Ben Johnson, the Lions’ offense has been dynamic and creative. They are always finding ways to maximize St. Brown’s skill set. They utilize a mix of short passes, screens, and quick slants, where St. Brown excels, giving him frequent opportunities to score.
This offense has been improving, with a strong offensive line, a balanced attack, and an emerging young core. They should find themselves in the red zone more often. St. Brown will naturally see more chances to score as the primary weapon.
With other offensive weapons like Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, defenses can’t afford to focus solely on St. Brown. This should create more favorable matchups, especially in the redzone. Teams can’t double-cover him without risking giving up big plays elsewhere.
St. Brown and Goff have developed a strong connection over the past few seasons. Goff trusts St. Brown in critical situations. This is key for converting touchdowns in tight spots. Their established chemistry means Goff will likely look for St. Brown often when the Lions are near the goal line.
St. Brown has shown consistent improvement each year in the league. With his work ethic and determination, he’s likely to continue that upward trajectory in 2024, especially in terms of finding the end zone.
Considering his role, skill set, and the overall improvement of the Lions’ offense, Amon Ra St. Brown has a strong chance of surpassing 8.5 touchdowns in the 2024 season.
Jake Ferguson: 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns
(2023 Season – 71/761/5TDs)
Ferguson is stepping into a role that historically sees a fair amount of targets, particularly in the red zone.
The Cowboys will utilize their tight ends effectively in the red zone. With CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks drawing attention from defenders, Ferguson will have opportunities to capitalize on mismatches against linebackers and safeties. This makes him a prime candidate for redzone targets and touchdowns.
Prescott has shown a strong connection with his tight ends throughout his career. As Ferguson continues to build rapport with Prescott, he’ll likely become a trusted target in key situations, particularly when the Cowboys are near the goal line.
Under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys’ offense should to remain balanced, with a mix of passing and running plays that keep defenses on their toes. Ferguson will be a crucial part of this scheme as the starting tight end, especially in play-action scenarios where tight ends often find themselves open for scoring opportunities.
Ferguson has shown he can be a versatile and reliable pass catcher. His ability to run routes, catch in traffic, and make plays after the catch gives him multiple ways to find the end zone. His athleticism allows him to create separation, which is crucial for scoring touchdowns. Given their potent offense and the nature of the NFC East, the Cowboys will likely be involved in several high-scoring games. This game flow will create more passing opportunities, including in the red zone, where Ferguson can thrive.
With defenses focused on stopping the Cowboys’ top weapons like Lamb, Cooks, and yes, even Zeke, Ferguson will often face single coverage or be overlooked. That should give him more chances to score, particularly in the red zone.
Jake Ferguson has a solid chance to surpass 5.5 touchdowns in the 2024 season. His role as the primary tight end, coupled with the Cowboys’ offensive structure and scoring opportunities, makes this a realistic target.
Christian McCaffrey: 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns
(2023 Season – 67/564/7TDs)
McCaffrey is one of the most versatile players in the NFL, excelling both as a runner and receiver. He’s a matchup nightmare for defenses because he can line up anywhere on the field out of the backfield, in the slot, or even split wide. This versatility gives him ample opportunities to catch touchdown passes.
The 49ers’ offense will get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space. McCaffrey is a focal point. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is known for his creative play-calling, which often involves screens, swing passes, and quick routes that allow McCaffrey to leverage his speed and elusiveness to score.
McCaffrey is heavily involved in the red zone, not just as a runner but also as a receiver. Shanahan frequently designs plays specifically for McCaffrey in these situations, such as wheel routes or option routes. McCaffrey can exploit mismatches against linebackers or safeties.
McCaffrey will remain a trusted target for Brock Purdy. In Shanahan’s system, running backs are often safety valves, especially in the red zone, where a quick pass to McCaffrey can easily turn into a touchdown.
With players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk drawing significant defensive attention, McCaffrey often finds himself in favorable one-on-one matchups. Defenses have to pick their poison, and McCaffrey is frequently the beneficiary when they focus on the 49ers’ other weapons.
The 49ers’ offense is excellent at executing screen plays and short passes, both of which are strengths for McCaffrey. These types of plays often lead to touchdowns, especially in situations where McCaffrey can make defenders miss in the open field.
While McCaffrey has had injury issues in the past, he was healthy throughout the 2023 season. If he can maintain his health in 2024, he’ll be on the field enough to accumulate the touchdowns needed to surpass 5.5 receiving touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey has a strong chance of surpassing 5.5 receiving touchdowns in the 2024 season. His role as a primary offensive weapon, combined with Shanahan’s play-calling and the 49ers’ overall offensive efficiency, makes this a realistic goal.
Tyreek Hill: 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns
(2023 Season – 119/1799/13TDs)
Tyreek Hill is one of the NFL’s most dynamic and explosive receivers. His speed and agility make him a constant deep threat, and he’s capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. Hill’s ability to take the top off of defenses is a key factor in him reaching double-digit touchdowns.
Hill developed excellent chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa during the 2023 season. Tua’s accuracy, especially on deep passes and quick throws, plays perfectly into Hill’s strengths. With another year together, their connection should only improve, leading to more scoring opportunities.
Under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins run a highly creative and aggressive offensive scheme that maximizes Hill’s abilities. The offense often puts Hill in motion, uses him in various alignments, and gets the ball to him in space. This allows him to use his speed to create big plays and score touchdowns.
Hill is the clear No. 1 option in the Dolphins’ passing game. While Jaylen Waddle is also a significant threat, Hill consistently draws a high volume of targets, especially in scoring situations. The Dolphins design plays specifically to get Hill the ball in the red zone and on deep shots, increasing his chances of surpassing 9.5 touchdowns.
Tua has shown he can effectively throw the deep ball, and Hill’s ability to track and catch those deep passes is elite. Hill’s speed allows him to consistently get behind defenses. Tua’s improving deep accuracy will be key to converting those opportunities into touchdowns.
Hill isn’t just a deep threat; he’s also a master at gaining yards after the catch. On short and intermediate routes, Hill can turn a routine catch into a long touchdown with his speed and elusiveness. This versatility makes him a threat to score on any given play, not just deep balls.
The presence of other offensive weapons like Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and DeVon Achane helps take some defensive attention away from Hill. When defenses can’t double-team Hill on every play, he gets more favorable matchups, leading to more touchdown opportunities.
The Dolphins should be one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL in 2024. With a potent offense and an aggressive play-caller in McDaniel, Hill will be in a position to score often, both on designed plays and on broken plays, where his improvisational skills come into play.
Tyreek Hill has a strong chance of surpassing 9.5 receiving touchdowns in the 2024 season. His role as the focal point of the Dolphins’ passing attack, his unique skill set, and the offensive environment in Miami make this a realistic and achievable target.
Ja’Marr Chase: 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns
(2023 Season – 100/1216/7TDs)
Chase is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, with a rare combination of speed, strength, and route-running ability. Like Tyreek Hill, he’s a nightmare matchup for any defender. Chase is capable of scoring from any area on the field, whether it’s deep, intermediate, or in the red zone.
Chase is Joe Burrow’s favorite target, especially in critical situations like third downs and the red zone. The Bengals’ offense is built around Burrow’s connection with Chase. He will continue to see a significant share of the team’s targets, especially in scoring situations.
The Bengals have one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. With Burrow at the helm, they are a pass-heavy team that isn’t afraid to push the ball down the field. This offensive style plays directly into Chase’s strengths as a deep threat and playmaker. This leads to numerous touchdown opportunities.
The connection between Burrow and Chase dates back to their college days at LSU. They even won a national championship together. This chemistry has translated seamlessly into the NFL, making Chase the go-to option for Burrow, particularly in the red zone and on deep passes.
Chase is a proven redzone weapon. His ability to win contested catches and his knack for finding openings in tight spaces make him a prime target for touchdowns when the Bengals are near the goal line. Even with defenses keying on him, Chase’s physicality and strong hands make him a reliable option for scoring.
The Bengals are likely to be involved in several high-scoring games. In the AFC North, shootouts are common. The nature of these games will lead to more passing attempts and opportunities for Chase to find the end zone.
Chase has been relatively durable and consistent since entering the NFL. Assuming he stays healthy, he will have plenty of chances to exceed 9.5 touchdowns over the course of an entire season.
Ja’Marr Chase is well-positioned to surpass 9.5 receiving touchdowns in the 2024 season. His elite skill set, the Bengals’ pass-heavy offense, and his strong connection with Joe Burrow make this a very attainable goal.
Lamar Jackson: 5.5 Rushing Touchdowns
(2023 Season – 148/821/5TDs)
Lamar Jackson’s ability to run the ball is a crucial element of the Ravens’ offense, particularly in the red zone. Even with Derrick Henry in the backfield, Jackson’s mobility creates unique challenges for defenses. The threat of Jackson running often forces defenses to hesitate. This opens up lanes for him to score on designed runs or scrambles.
The Ravens have consistently used designed quarterback runs and read option plays that take advantage of Jackson’s speed and elusiveness. They will use these plays in goal-line situations, where Jackson has excelled in finding the end zone. The presence of Henry might even enhance these opportunities. Defenses will be keyed in to stop the powerful running back, potentially leaving Jackson with open lanes.
With Derrick Henry commanding attention in the backfield, play-action fakes become even more effective. This allows Jackson to exploit defenses that over-commit to stopping Henry. Jackson can easily pull the ball down and run it on these plays, particularly when defenses are spread thin or off-balance.
Offensive coordinator Todd Monken designed plays specifically to maximize the unique combination of Jackson and Henry in the backfield. These could include misdirection plays. Jackson can keep the ball for a designed run, taking advantage of defenses focused on stopping Henry.
Henry is a dominant short-yardage back. However, Jackson will use his ability to quickly accelerate and find gaps in situations where defenses fully expect Henry to get the ball. Jackson’s quickness and ability to get to the edge of the defense make him a potent weapon near the goal line, even with Henry in the lineup.
Jackson is one of the best improvisational runners in the NFL. Even when a play breaks down, his ability to escape pressure and turn a broken play into a touchdown run is unmatched. This skill will still be a significant factor in Jackson’s touchdown production, regardless of Henry’s presence.
The Ravens’ offense could become even more efficient with Henry in the backfield. This should lead to more redzone opportunities. More opportunities naturally lead to more chances for Jackson to run in touchdowns, especially when defenses are more concerned about stopping Henry.
Jackson has consistently been one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the league. His track record of finding the end zone with his legs is strong. His role as a dual-threat quarterback means he will always have opportunities to score, even if Henry takes on a large portion of the running workload.
Given these factors, Lamar Jackson has a solid chance to surpass 5.5 rushing touchdowns in the 2024 season. His unique skill set, combined with the strategic advantages provided by Derrick Henry’s presence, makes this an achievable goal.
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