Confidence Plays | Fantasy Football Week 15

Start Em Sit Em Week 15

Man, has this season been brutal or what? Unfortunately, our fantasy squads have been negatively affected between league-wide low-scoring and poor offensive line and quarterback play. But regardless of your confidence in your playoff squad, it’s time to try and bring that hardware home. I know I may have let you down after catching a nasty respiratory virus and missing the last few weeks, but I am back to try and help you snag that first-round W this week.

As I will do every week for this article, I am using the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings to bring you, players, in ranges where the start/sit conundrums exist. Your RB2, WR3, and FLEX positions. Here are the ranges in which I will try to live when writing this column each week:

QB ECR: 10-20 | RB ECR: 20-40 | WR ECR: 20-40 | TE ECR: 10-20

With that, I will bring you my confidence plays and fades for this week. Again, my goal here is to give you plays and fades beyond just your obvious studs & duds. Good luck!

Week 15 Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em

PLAY

QB Deshaun Watson ECR QB#14, vs BAL

Waston has been lackluster, to say the least, scoring just 20 fantasy points between his two starts back from suspension. He did, however, improve from Week 13 to Week 14, tossing for 276 yards vs 131 yards in his first game back. I like Watson’s production to spike even more this week against a Baltimore Ravens secondary that has allowed the 12th most points per game to enemy quarterbacks. 

RB D’Onta Foreman ECR RB#26, vs PIT

Foreman has been one of this year’s waiver wire darlings after the Christian McCaffrey trade earlier in the season. Since that transaction, Foreman has seen 20 or more carries in about half his games. I understand that kind of volatility is hard to trust, but I like Foreman this week quite a bit. Not only are the Steelers just a middling defense at this point, but Foreman has seen 87 opportunities in his last four games. Those opponents? Atlanta, Baltimore, Denver, and Seattle. Given that Pittsburgh is not an opponent we are afraid of by any stretch of the imagination, I am confidently firing up Foreman this week.  

RB Jerick McKinnon ECR RB#36, at HOU

If you have been asleep at the wheel the last two weeks, you might have missed that Jerick McKinnon has been the RB3 over these previous two games. I know it is a small sample size, but I like this one-two punch that has been forming between Isiah Pacheco and McKinnon. This week both backs have an incredibly enticing matchup against the league’s worst team, the Houston Texans. Only the Seahawks allow more points to fantasy running backs this season. As of this writing, the Chiefs are 14-point road favorites. Look for both of these backs to be heavily involved this week. 

WR Christian Kirk ECR WR#20 vs DAL

This honestly feels like cheating. Kirk is the WR11 in nearly all formats and is being ranked outside the Top 15. Enough already! The guy hasn’t had less than seven targets in a game since Week 5. He has double-digit Half-PPR points in four of his last six games. This week, the Jags face a tough Dallas defense that is opportunistic but also allows big splash plays. Look for a red-hot Trevor Lawrence to attack this Dallas secondary that will have to fly cross-country to Jacksonville for Sunday’s tilt. 

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones ECR WR#32 vs BAL

Baltimore has been a secondary worth targeting this year for our fantasy wide receivers, and I like that to continue to be the case this week with DPJ. The WR31 in PPR is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Bengals. He was targeted a season-high 12 times, caught the most balls of the season with eight, and racked up his highest in-game total for 2022 with 114 receiving yards. With Cooper and Njoku nursing injuries and the Browns promising to have Watson push the ball down the field more, I really like DPJ this week. 

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo ECR TE#13 at LAC

Everyone’s favorite sleeper tight end, Chig Okonkwo, has been heating up over the last couple of weeks, averaging 9.7 half-PPR points over his previous three contests. Last week was his coming out party, catching all 6 of his targets for 45 yards and an impressive helmet catch touchdown. This week Chig plays the Chargers, who aren’t the softest matchup for tight ends but could be without Derwin James again this week and have had their share of defensive struggles this season.

Don’t forget to check out where Travy’s picks fall in our Week 15 rankings!

FADE

QB Jared Goff ECR QB#16, at NYJ

Say it with me, “Jared Goff is a QB1.” He is QB12 in some formats, and we still have some weeks to go, but credit goes to Goff for another quietly solid campaign. A lot of his success this season comes on the back of four games over 25 fantasy points. What’s unique about those games? They have all come while at Ford Field. In fact, Goff averages 21.04 fantasy points in his eight home games versus just 9.32 fantasy points in his five road games. Not only do we have these splits to worry about, but the Jets’ defense has been borderline elite against fantasy QBs, allowing just 15 points per game on average. Avoid Goff at all costs.  

RB Leonard Fournette ECR RB#30, vs CIN

It has been a tale of two seasons for Lenny as he has begun to battle some nagging injuries and has dealt with the emergence of rookie running back Rachaad White. We are a far cry away from the days of Fournette seeing 15 or more carries, and I just can’t trust him in this timeshare, behind a bad offensive line, on an inefficient offense. However, I think you can find a better alternative to Lombardy Lenny this week.   

RB Samaje Perine ECR RB#38, at TB

Perine didn’t entirely disappear on you last week, given that he scored a touchdown on one of his five touches. If you snagged Perine on waivers and you are having a hard time letting go, this is the matchup to do it. Five touches inspire close to zero confidence, and the Buccaneers have allowed just the 6th fewest points to enemy running backs this year. With Mixon back in the fold, look for Perine to fade into the distance. 

WR Mike Evans ECR WR#24 vs CIN

I swear I am not trying to pick on the Buccaneers, but they have been really bad. Perhaps the worst of the former reliable studs has been Mike Evans. It pains me to report that Evans hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 9, hasn’t eclipsed 75 yards since Week 8, and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4. He isn’t someone I want to trust in a “win or go home” scenario this week, especially with Cincinnati allowing the 4th fewest points to opposing wideouts this season.  

WR Adam Thielen ECR WR#35 vs IND

Thielen’s production has been a yo-yo this season. Just look at his last four week’s fantasy points. He had 3.5 points in Week 11, 16.6 in Week 12, 3.7 in Week 13, and 16 last week. At this point, he is a touchdown-dependent WR3 and will play a Colts defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest touchdowns to wide receivers in 2022. You can look to other WRs this week with so much on the line. 

TE Cole Kmet ECR TE#12 vs PHI

Kmet finally popped for us this season with the emergence of Justin Fields, and although this take scares me the most of my fades this week, I cannot trust Kmet in Week 15. Before the bye week, Kmet had two games of five or fewer points and two double-digit half-PPR points. Not only is Kmet volatile, albeit like most tight ends, but he faces a Philly defense that is bottom eight in points allowed to TEs and has given up just three touchdowns to tight ends on the year

Good luck this week. If you need some advice replacing some of Travy’s Fades, we have Ryan’s Streams of the Week to help you get that Week 15 win!


If you still have questions, Join us tomorrow and every Saturday at 11 AM EST for Start Sit, Different Day. We spend an entire hour devoted to answering your Week 15 questions!