As we push into the fantasy football playoffs, it’s unfortunate to say that your season might be over. What now? Spend time with your family? No, thank you. It’s time to try your hand at NFL player props. At Underdog, you can combine 2-5 player prop bets for payouts up to 20x your money. You’re choosing over or under a player statistic, and if you get them all right, or just one wrong with insurance, you win. It’s fun, and you should try it. To help, here are my Top-5 picks for Week 14.
Week 14 NFL Player Props
Jared Goff – 274.5 Passing Yards
We’re starting with a HIGHER in this game. No team in the NFL gives up more passing yards than the Minnesota Vikings. Betting on Goff is always dangerous, but that kind of defense makes it an easier pill to swallow. The Vikings have allowed 299 yards per game, and eight QBs have hit this 275-yard mark against them. In fact, each of their last four opponents has hit the target and has averaged almost 340 yards per game. For his part, Goff has hit this mark four times this year, and he registered 277 yards when he faced Minnesota back in Week 3.
If you’re worried about Goff, or some of my more sketchy picks later in this article, take a long look at Amon-Ra St. Brown, HIGHER than 88.5 receiving yards, and Justin Jefferson, HIGHER than 94.5 receiving yards. I expect this to be a high-scoring game, and both of these great WRs should have their way with a sub-par secondary.
Miles Sanders – 65.5 Rushing Yards
Another HIGHER for Pick #2. The Giants have allowed over 118 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, and Sanders is the lead back in Philly. While it is true that backup Boston Scott tends to have his way with the Giants, there is plenty of work to go around here, and Sanders only needs about half of what New York typically allows. This number feels too low, with 11 different RBs hitting at least 66 yards against New York on the year. Sanders has crossed this mark seven times in 2022.
Looking for some fantasy advice? You’ll find what you’re looking for in Austin’s DFS A-List.
Deshaun Watson – 222.5 Passing Yards
Our first and only LOWER of the slate. With all due respect to our friends at Underdog, but what the actual F— were we thinking with this line? In his first game back, Watson managed just 131 yards, which was a revenge game against Houston. This week, he faces a surging Bengals team that would like nothing more than to wipe the floor with Cleveland. The Bengals only allow 224 passing yards per game, the 10th-fewest in the league, and have held seven QBs under 222 yards this season.
Demarcus Robinson – 30.5 Receiving Yards
Now things get weird, and if you want to pivot to the ARSB or JJeff props I mentioned earlier, I get it. We’re going HIGHER here. Robinson has turned into the de facto WR1 in Baltimore while they battle injuries at the position. With just 50 targets over 12 games, that role has not netted much success. To make matters murkier, the Ravens will be playing with a backup QB in Week 14. The saving grace is their opponent: The Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers allow the 4th-most receiving yards in the NFL and 185 yards per game to WRs. A whopping 24 WRs have hit this 31-yard mark against Pittsburgh in 12 games. Robinson has only achieved this goal three times, but they have all occurred in his last five games. I trust Tyler Huntley to get Robinson the ball against this suspect secondary.
Jack Stoll – 9.5 Receiving Yards
Our last pick is another HIGHER, though I might want to start by answering, “Who TF is Jack Stoll?” When Dallas Goedert went to the IR, there was no direct backup to replace him in Philadelphia. Instead, they’ve used a committee of Stoll, Grant Calcaterra, Noah Togiai, and Tyree Jackson. None of them has done anything of note. The good news is that to hit this prop, we don’t need a heroic performance; we basically need one catch. Last week, Stoll caught all three of his targets for 41 yards. That momentum should continue into Week 14, with the team’s WR3, Quez Watkins, being hurt and the Eagles take on the New York Giants. The Giants give up 58 yards per game to tight ends. Stoll needs 10. With 14 TEs hitting 10+ yards against New York, you can feel good about betting on Stoll, even if you do not know who he is.
As always, I practice what I preach. If you win, I win. If you lose, I lose. So here is my betting slip for this week’s picks.