The A List at DFS Academy | NFL DFS Week 14

NFL DFS Week 14

Anyone else still buzzing off the thrill of Thursday Night Football? Well, probably not if you are a Raiders fan. In that case, my condolences. 

If you missed it, Baker Mayfield essentially made a crash landing in Los Angeles and, less than 48 hours later, led the Rams to a game-winning 98-yard drive. These are the types of stories that make us love the NFL. Mayfield has bounced from team to team over the past year, seemingly setting himself up as a career backup. But in one week, he has piqued the interests of the NFL and fantasy players alike.

Are you coming off a rough couple of DFS weeks? Or maybe it’s been an up-and-down season for you? Well, perhaps this is your Baker Mayfield week. And I’m here to help lead you to DFS success this week. Don’t forget, if you had some down weeks, don’t panic. Trust the process, cut back your contests, try some new ones, and don’t go trying to win back all your money in one week. We’re aiming for season-long success in Cash. And as Baker Mayfield showed, everything can change in the course of a week. 

As always, my DMs are open for feedback and questions, , both on Twitter and Instagram,

Cash is in session.

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NFL DFS Week 14

NFL DFS Week 14

Teacher’s Pet

Joe Mixon (DraftKings: $6,900 / FanDuel: $8,500)

This pick, of course, comes down to whether Joe Mixon is healthy to play. If he is ruled out, I’m slotting in Samaje Perine, who has been as close to a one-for-one replacement as you could want. Either way, the Bengals matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who have been awful defending the run this year. Since Week 10, the Browns have given up the fifth most points to opposing running backs. Further, Joe Burrow has been consistently throwing the ball to his running backs, so whoever gets the run should have a big day in what could be a blowout. 

NFL DFS Week 14

Honor Roll NFL DFS Week 14

Josh Allen (DraftKings: $8,300 / FanDuel: $8,700)

Remember when the Buffalo Bills lost to the New York Jets? DFS players may look to avoid Jose Allen this week because of how this game played out earlier this season. The primary highlight from that game is that he threw two interceptions and gave up two fumbles. Further, the Jets’ secondary had the Bills’ number, holding Allen to just 200 yards. 

Despite this, he still scored nearly 27 DraftKings points, thanks to a terrific day on the ground. And that’s the thing with Josh Allen. He is always a threat to score 30 points. And in particular, I anticipate this being a revenge game where the Bills come out to assert their dominance. Remember what they did to the Patriots last year after losing their first matchup? That’s the type of energy I’m expecting on Sunday, and Allen will be the one to lead them there.

Tony Pollard (DraftKings: $6,700 / FanDuel: $7,500)

I could honestly make a case for starting either Dallas Cowboys running back. However, I completely support it if you want to take the cheaper player (Elliott on DraftKings, Pollard on FanDuel). With them facing the Houston Texans, they honestly could both run for 100 yards each with two touchdowns. However, I slightly lean towards Pollard because of the explosive play opportunity in what is a dream matchup.

DeVonta Smith (DraftKings: $6,300 / FanDuel: $7,000)

This one snuck up on me, but Devonta Smith has been getting consistent targets over the past four weeks. I have tended to categorize Smith as a Tyler Lockett-type, who gets limited targets, but those targets are high-value opportunities. But I’m updating my data, as Smith has at least eight targets in each of the last four games. The Eagles have been making a concerted effort to make him part of their offense. Additionally, the New York Giants are in the league’s bottom half against opposing receivers. And with this being a divisional matchup, I anticipate either a close battle or the Eagles running up the score. Both scenarios will benefit Devonta Smith.

T.J. Hockenson (DraftKings: $5,100 / FanDuel: $6,500)

The only reason I’m avoiding Travis Kelce this week is that I’m uncertain how much he will draw coverage from Pat Surtain. With that uncertainty, we’re left picking through the leftovers of tight end targets. T.J. Hockenson fit into this Minnesota offense like a glove once he got traded. 

While no tight end outside of Kelce excites me, Hockenson has averaged six catches per game since Week 9, which is more than you will get from most tight ends. Plus, this game against the Lions is poised to be a shootout, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Hockenson to get in the endzone. 

Before you set your Week 14 NFL DFS lineups, be sure to check out Austin and Ryan’s weekly rankings!

Check the Chalkboard

Justin Jefferson (DraftKings: $9,000 / FanDuel: $9,300)

Building on the conversation around T.J. Hockenson, the Minnesota Vikings have a 25-point implied total on Sunday and are 2.5-point underdogs. That says to me they will be playing from behind and passing the ball to stay competitive. And while the Vikings’ defense is better than the Jaguars, we saw last week how the Lions could get out to an early lead and render opposing run games useless. Justin Jefferson is still among the best players in the NFL, so I’m not overthinking this in what should be a close battle. 

Participation Grade

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (DraftKings: $4,000 / FanDuel: $5,500)

Speaking of the Jaguars, we also saw how poorly they defended the pass last week against the Detroit Lions. Now, the Tennessee Titans get this favorable matchup in what should be a bounce-back week. With Treylon Burks likely out in the concussion protocol, the receiving options are down to Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. And while Westbrook-Ikhine is not a consistent fantasy starter, he has been a consistent target when filling in for injured players. With this being a favorable matchup, I’m looking for him to finish with four or five catches and 40 to 50 yards. I’ll take that at this price and pay up elsewhere.

NFL DFS Week 14

Back of the Classroom Studs NFL DFS Week 14

Ryan Tannehill (DraftKings: $5,200 / FanDuel: $6,700)

There are several cheap quarterback options that intrigue me, including Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff. But I also want to highlight Ryan Tannehill, who has been consistently mid-tier, with a few high-end ceiling performances sprinkled in. He has been very matchup and game-script-dependent this season, which should play in our favor this week. The Titans are only 3.5-point favorites in this matchup, so they will need to continue to pass to stay ahead in this matchup. Further, the Jaguars have given up the second most points to opposing quarterbacks since Week 10. Therefore, Tannehill is a great money-saving play in this favorable matchup.

D’Andre Swift (DraftKings: $5,800 / FanDuel: $7,200)

I’m treading lightly with this pick. D’Andre Swift got back to leading the snap share in the Lions’ backfield last week, but he has still been riding on the injury report. If we get news that Swift is still limited, I’ll be pivoting away from him and starting Jamaal Williams instead. But every indication currently points to Swift being the lead back once more, and with his value still bottomed out on DraftKings, this may be the best chance we get to play him for the remainder of the season. 

D’Onta Foreman (DraftKings: $5,400 / FanDuel: $6,900)

D’Onta Foreman has been on the injury report this week, so there is a decent chance he doesn’t play, and instead, we have to pivot to Chuba Hubbard. Either way, I feel great about the Panthers’ running back room going against a Seahawks defense that has been awful against running backs.

How awful? The Seahawks have given up the most points to opposing running backs since Week 10. But even worse, they are giving up 9.32 points per game more than the New York Giants, who have given up the third most points during that span. That is larger than the gap between the Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who gave up the 20th most points during that time. Talk about a favorable matchup. 

DJ Chark Jr. (DraftKings: $4,300 / FanDuel: $5,700)

At this point, I feel obliged to point out that I have named four potential starters from this matchup. I certainly wouldn’t start all four in the same lineup (although several of these options are great tournament options) in case this game completely folds and hits the under. But overall, I feel comfortable about these players’ opportunities to return at value. 

D.J. Chark has been a sneaky player this season. He hasn’t done enough to be on the radar of most fantasy players, but he has been consistently showing up when healthy and is coming off his best game of the season with nearly 100 receiving yards. I’m looking for that to continue this week against a Minnesota Vikings defense that cannot defend the pass.

Austin Hooper (DraftKings: $2,900 / FanDuel: $4,900)

Honestly, pick your favorite tight end in this matchup and go for it. My favorite option is Austin Hooper, who has recorded at least three catches in each of the past four matchups. But if you decide you prefer Evan Engram or Chigoziem Okonkwo, I support it. This is your punt play, and all three of these players have the chance to get into the endzone and pay at value.

Dallas Cowboys (DraftKings: $3,800 / FanDuel: $5,200)

How can you not be enticed by this matchup? The Houston Texans have averaged a defensive touchdown allowed per game over the past four weeks. So now you get one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league? As much as I want Dak Prescott and Tony Pollard to feast, there’s a real scenario where the Cowboys’ defense scores two touchdowns and bench their starters halfway through the third quarter.

Carolina Panthers (DraftKings: $2,200 / FanDuel: $3,600)

The thinking here is simple: how little can I reasonably spend on my defense? On DraftKings, the Panthers are the second cheapest defense against a Seattle Seahawks team that may be without Kenneth Walker this week. Further, this is a defense that has only allowed 28 total points over the past three weeks. The Panthers seem to be getting their defense on track, and all we need is for them not to get blown out this week.

Report Card

Scoring System

  • A: Scored over three times their price
  • B: Scored over two times their price
  • C: Matched their price
  • F: Scored lower than their price

DraftKings

Player Price Points Grade
Travis Kelce $7,900 8.6 C
Trevor Lawrence $5,900 16.36 B
David Montgomery $6,200 16.7 B
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,100 37.6 A
Deebo Samuel $6,600 12.3 C
Austin Ekeler $8,500 14.2 C
Kyren Williams $5,200 0.9 F
Mike White $5,400 22.46 A
Antonio Gibson $5,200 7.9 C
Garrett Wilson $5,300 27.2 A
Christian Kirk $6,300 19.4 A
Pat Freiermuth $3,400 10.6 A
Denver Broncos $2,400 12 A
Tennessee Titans $2,200 -2 F
Overall $77,600 204.22 B
Season Long $1,001,100 2582.66 B

*Left early due to injury

FanDuel

Player Price Points Grade
Travis Kelce $8,400 5.6 F
Trevor Lawrence $7,500 16.36 B
David Montgomery $7,000 14.7 B
Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,000 29.1 A
Deebo Samuel $6,800 9.3 C
Austin Ekeler $9,200 10.7 C
Kyren Williams $5,500 0.9 F
Mike White $6,900 19.46 B
Antonio Gibson $6,100 6.9 C
Garrett Wilson $6,600 20.2 A
Christian Kirk $7,500 13.4 C
Pat Freiermuth $5,900 9.1 C
Denver Broncos $3,700 12 A
Tennessee Titans $2,200 -2 F
Overall $91,300 165.72 C
Season Long $1,197,300 2243.66 C

*Left early due to injury


Looking for more Week 14 NFL DFS plays with the best possible matchups? Our Weekly Matchup Report gives you that info every Wednesday.