Hey everybody — we made it! We have survived the longest week in NFL history and I welcome you all into Week 13 of the NFL season. Lucky number 13… I mean, what could go wrong? Did you know that at least 10% of the US population has a fear of the number 13? Not us! No chance in hell are the people reading my article living life in fear. We are going headfirst every week into the DFS pool and deep-sea diving, kickin’ ass, and takin’ names. My articles are not for the faint of heart so if you came here to play it safe then I would advise you to fast forward to the wide receiver section of this article and pick Sterling Shepard over TY Hilton. It’s time to take risks people; not only is it potentially a push for your playoffs this week in season-long fantasy, but it’s also only three short weeks away from the end of the season. Scared money don’t make no money! I’m keeping it short and sweet here this week because it’s Saturday morning, and we got places to go, and people to see — with our masks on, geared up, six feet away from each other — before we all sit glued to the TV on Sunday, watching to see how our teams and lineups fare. I wouldn’t have it any other way, so let’s enjoy it while we can! To the 90%-ers out there that’s still fearlessly listening to me, let’s go kash out!
Looking for more help building DFS lineups? We’ve put together our DFS Matchup Report for Week 13, showing who has the best (and worst) matchups.
Aaron Rodgers (Draftkings: $6,800 / FanDuel: $8,500)
It’s not every day that you can get a player who’s making a case for league MVP at a value in Week 13 of DFS, but here we are with Aaron Rodgers. It must be the matchup, seeing as the Philadelphia Eagles are ranked 25th against opposing team’s quarterbacks in fantasy points scored. Hm… well, I guess it’s a good thing Rodgers has been completely matchup-proof all season long, still recording at least 3+ passing touchdowns versus teams that were considered hard matchups, such as the 49ers, Colts, and Bears, now isn’t it? I don’t think it’s going to take much for me to sell you on Aaron Rodgers, so let’s just take it for what it’s worth and plug in the guy who’s the 4th best fantasy quarterback on the season while he’s still the least expensive option in the top tier echelon of quarterbacks; only a $400 difference from our next quarterback listed at value on Draftkings. Sorry to those looking for the value over on FanDuel… I know it’s not really the deal you were looking for since they have him priced much higher in comparison to what Draftkings set his value at, so just proceed to the next group of guys listed down below.
Ryan Tannehill (Draftkings: $6,200 / FanDuel: $7,800)
Initially, this matchup may seem disguised as a tough matchup for the quarterback position, seeing as over the last couple of weeks, quarterbacks haven’t particularly fared well against the Browns. You also may be hesitant on Tannehill because of his low number of pass attempts and their unwavering love to get Derrick Henry the football. We just haven’t seen the stellar fantasy performances of last season out of Tannehill much this year. But, it’s all about to change folks, and don’t let any of this hogwash distract you from the fact that winter is coming, and Tannehill is about to regain his form from last season. The Browns have been stuck in a weather rut, playing in a handful of games getting rained out or winded to death, resulting in low scoring and low passing attempts. They have not all of a sudden had a turnaround and became a tough defense to pass on. (I think Mike Glennon, of all people, proved that last week.) Glennon went for 235 yards with two touchdowns, and the Browns passing defense also made guys like Collin Johnson, a 5th round rookie, look like an absolute stud, putting up a stat line of four receptions for 96 yards and a score. The Browns tote a much better rushing defense than they do a passing one, and while I don’t think anyone is good enough to necessarily stop Derrick Henry, especially as it gets colder, his efficient running also helps Tannehill get in good field position to score. Sounds like a plan, considering Tannehill has thrown for at least two touchdowns in all but two games this season. I like the 54.5 over/under that Vegas put out, and it gives plenty of room for fantasy points to be scored. Tanny is a safe option this week if you’re looking for a discount QB.
Honorable Mention: Ryan Fitzpatrick (Draftkings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $7,400)
Deep Sea Dive: Derek Carr (Draftkings: $5,800 / FanDuel: $7,200)
Miles Sanders (Draftkings: $6,700 / FanDuel: $7,200)
Oh yes, I have dreamed of the day I get to talk about the Philadelphia Eagles players in one of my articles as a valuable fantasy football asset. However, I swear on everything that I love when I say, I am not biased in suggesting this pick. It is absolutely criminal that Doug Pederson has not established his run game when he has a player like Miles Sanders and keeps forcing his struggling quarterback to throw the ball. I would like to believe head coaches are smart men who know that they need to get the running game going in these circumstances, especially when facing the Green Bay Packers, who are the league’s 3rd worst defense against the run. Teams have found very little success moving the ball through the air versus Green Bay. It’s also reassuring to know that Green Bay has allowed a running back to score a touchdown or gain over 100 total yards in every game this season. I know the idea of the game script also may seem scary, seeing as we’ve seen Sanders sometimes phased out recently in negative game scripts. But shockingly, despite their poor offensive play, the Eagles have kept themselves in games even when facing much better opponents. If Doug Pederson wants to keep his job, then he needs to make changes to his offense because what it has been is not working. He absolutely needs to unleash a heavy dose of Sanders in this game and we all know Sanders has the talent to feast, so really, it’s just on Pederson. Worth the gamble if you ask me!
David Montgomery (Draftkings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $6,200)
I may be alone on this take when I say that I think David Montgomery is a good running back that is just stuck behind a poor offensive line and on an offense that doesn’t help his case to make the most of his fantasy football value. He has taken us on some highs, and yes, mostly lows, throughout the season, but this matchup is too juicy not to exploit. The Detroit Lions allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, while also ranking 5th in rushing yards allowed and 1st in touchdowns allowed to the position. They have allowed 21 touchdowns to running backs this season, while no other team in the league has allowed more than 16. Sheesh! Even with a negative game script for Chicago last week, Montgomery made the most of his 11 attempts, finishing with 103 rushing yards and five receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown. It was nice to finally see Montgomery break out and he will find himself in a similar position this week against their divisional rivals. I think Montgomery makes a fine value pick!
Honorable Mention: Kareem Hunt (Draftkings: $5,400 / FanDuel: $6,300)
Deep Sea Dive: Frank Gore (Draftkings: $4,400 / FanDuel: $5,300)
Allen Robinson (Draftkings: $6,700 / FanDuel: $6,900)
Speaking of Chicago Bears in bad situations… is there anyone else in the league who deserves a real quarterback more than Allen Robinson? I mean, come on! Whether it was at Penn State with Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenburg, Jacksonville with Blake Bortles, or in Chicago with Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky — somebody come freakin’ free this guy of his quarterback hell next season! The man is an absolute stud and target monster where he ranks number three in the league with his 108 targets! Similar to last week where I talked about Robby Anderson having all these targets and being priced so cheap that it won’t last for long, the same is to be said for Allen Robinson. We should take advantage of his price point here! The Detroit Lions are not just bad at stopping the run, but they are also the league’s worst graded team in coverage. Not to keep stacking the negatives against them, but they also face a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball this week at the cornerback position. I’m not quite sure why Robinson finds himself at such a value here but shhh! Let’s not bring it to their attention and plug him into our lineups this week. Robinson has notoriously torched the Lions defense in his tenor with the Chicago Bears and it’s not stopping this week. He’s a no-brainer pick for me!
Sterling Shepard (Draftkings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $5,600)
Ya know, I really do hate to put him here in the context that I’m about to but, honestly, for me, Sterling Shepard is the league’s safest play. Especially this week, going up against the Seattle Seahawks, who allow the league’s most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Shepard is safe because he does not give you weeks of extreme lows to pair with massive highs… he just presents a safe floor. At this price point, maybe that’s something to lean on to build other high upside players into your lineup. Shepard has now seen at least six targets in 22 straight games. That is some serious consistency. I know it was a small sample size but of Colt McCoy’s 10 pass attempts… Shepard saw four of those. I expect to see the trend of consistent targets continue to goShepard’s way. In this plus matchup, where the New York Giants are expected to play from behind, it should only help Shepard continue to rack up the targets, yards, and opportunity for fantasy production in this one.
Honorable Mention: Corey Davis (Draftkings: $5,100 / FanDuel: $6,100)
Deep Sea Dive: T.Y. Hilton (Draftkings: $4,300 / FanDuel: $5,600)
Mike Gesicki (Draftkings: $4,200 / FanDuel: $5,700)
I like Geisicki a lot this week for the same reason I like any tight end I post here playing against the Bengals. They see a ton of the target share! With how bad the tight end position has been at predicting this season… if I could just get a guy who’s getting a ton of opportunity, then I will take that! The Bengals are one of just four teams in the league who’ve allowed four 15+ fantasy point performances to tight ends this year. They have continually bled points to opposing tight ends all season. Gesicki has been rather up and down for us this year, but he presents himself with upside this week. I like him even more if Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start. If Tua is the starter, I am a lot more hesitant about playing Geisicki, and would instead pivot to any of the three listed below. I personally prefer Robert Tonyan the best of everyone listed here.
Austin Hooper (Draftkings: $3,800 / FanDuel: $5,300)
The Tennessee Titans are allowing the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. They have also allowed a league-high seven tight ends score at least 10.6 PPR points against them. The risk we run in rolling out Austin Hooper is his lack of targets recently. Since his return from surgery to remove his appendix, we have seen his targets dwindle down from 7,10, and 6 to 2, 5, and 2, which is obviously not very good. I’m willing to place blame on a lot of that being because of the bad weather games and the return from surgery. I think he is in a spot to get right this week. The Browns don’t have a ton of passing options on the field right now, and for the price they paid to sign Hooper, they should start pushing to make him a focal point on the passing side of the ball once again.
Honorable Mention: Robert Tonyan (Draftkings: $3,700 / FanDuel: $5,900)
Deep Sea Dive: Trey Burton (Draftkings: $3,500 / FanDuel: $5,500)
Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants (Draftkings: $3,300 / FanDuel: $4,700)
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (Draftkings: $3,100 / FanDuel: $4,200)
Honorable Mention: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans (Draftkings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $4,600)
Deep Sea Dive: Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams (Draftkings: $2,900 / FanDuel: $3,800)
Looking for more great Week 13 content? Check out Josh’s Confidence Plays and Ryan’s Streams of the Week!