Hello, and welcome back to Saturday morning DFS and chill, with me, Kyra Wiaterowski — your friendly neighborhood fantasy football analyst. We all know what this week was, and believe me when I say that Thanksgiving and Black Friday are one tough act to follow, so I’m going to do my best here to bring you some excitement and the deals that no doorbuster could ever beat. I should probably circle back here and give you all the laundry list of things that I’m thankful for, seeing as this week is all about the spirit of giving and appreciation and blah blah blah. But, I know you aren’t into the sappy stuff so just really quickly, I want to say that I am thankful for Club Fantasy giving me the ability to get myself on a platform where I vicariously communicate with the world through DFS and fantasy football articles. I have so much crap to say and it’s just been building for years and years and I’m super thankful that Josh and company have given me the opportunity to do so. They rock, you guys rock, and we all just want to be big rock stars living in hilltop houses, drivin’ fifteen cars. So with that said, there is not much time to waste on giving these “what I’m thankful for” speeches today. So, I digress.
It’s Week 12 baby, and we are just rollin’ through the fantasy football season. We only have a few short weeks to really hit on these cash games and tournaments — it’s crunch time! I know I don’t touch on the Thursday game or games, like this past week, but damn those were some action-packed Turkey day showdowns. We got to treat ourselves to a fantasy explosion between the Houston Texans and Washington Football Team’s offenses that did just enough to keep us entertained. After losing the Steelers and Ravens Thursday night game, I thought, “there’s no F’in way I’m going to survive not taking a nap after dinner and make it to watch football all day,” but they surprised us! I’m looking for a couple more surprises here on this Sunday slate. I’m also hoping that these DFS picks are feeling just as giving and generous as the Lions offense was this past Thursday and that we all score mondo points and we all become the big rock stars we were meant to be. Sorry, I know, I mean how long can I drag out this song as a reference to so many things in one short intro? It’s getting old and time is money so to help get you some nickel’s back, I would like to present to you the best article you’ll read this weekend. Let’s kash out!
Looking for more help building DFS lineups? We’ve put together our DFS Matchup Report for Week 12, showing who has the best (and worst) matchups.
Cam Newton (Draftkings: $6,400 / FanDuel: $7,700)
Now look, I’m talking values here. So I just want to put out a disclaimer on the fact that I don’t necessarily think Cam Newton is a top-5 quarterback this week. If you are looking to pay down at the position, then he has a safe-ish floor as a low-end QB1 with projected low ownership from his lackluster fantasy output that’s worth considering. Alright, so now that I’ve talked you out of picking Newton this week, let me bring you back into it. Here’s what I tend to look at when I see what has caused Cam Newton to have high passing yard games this season (because he only had his 2nd just this past weekend): when he’s faced another mobile quarterback who could really sling the rock and doesn’t have a good enough defense to keep them in games either so they just start slingin’ it… it’s brought out his best. One of Cam Newton’s 300+ yard passing games came versus Seattle and Russell Wilson, while the latter was versus Houston and Deshaun Watson. This week, he faces Kyler Murray, who has a similar skillset and style to the last two quarterbacks, along with, you guessed it… a not-so-great defense. Murray should shine in this one, which could bring out the dog in Newton that he wanted to be this year to prove his doubters wrong. Cam has been averaging nearly 20 points per game since Week 8 and has himself nine rushing touchdowns on the season. That being said, the Arizona Cardinals are giving up the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. So with a defense that has been averaging nearly 20 points per game and the third-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks… sounds like a good spot for Super Cam.
Derek Carr (Draftkings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $7,100)
Get in the Carr, loser, we’re going shopping for nicely valued DFS quarterbacks. Week in and week out, Atlanta provides us an easy target to pick up lowly priced quarterbacks to put up major fantasy points against them. It’s a thing of beauty, and it’s something we should target, as far as matchups go, when you’re looking for a cheaply priced quarterback. They made Taysum Hill, a guy who hadn’t thrown for more than 64 yards in a single season, look like an absolute all-star last week. Hill came away completing 18-of-23 passes for 233 yards, and although no touchdown (he rushed for 2 because that is who he is), it was still pretty impressive (and I don’t think that’s due to the fact we are underestimating Hill as a passer). It is 100%, in my opinion, the fact that the Atlanta Falcons have a horrific passing defense, allowing the MOST fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed a league-high 25.9 fantasy points per game and with Carr coming in, fresh off his red-hot performance versus the Kansas City Chiefs, I’m intrigued. With Cam Newton, we get rushing upside, which is always a nice perk to have with our fantasy quarterbacks. But, the good news for immobile “Stay in the Carr” Derek Carr — so many vehicle references, I can’t stop — is that the Falcons have allowed more fantasy points through the air than any other team in the league. No other team in the league can say they allow quarterbacks to outscore running backs against them. It’s really a no brainer for me. I think at this price point, he’s a safe bet to provide you with a decent enough floor to build around him at other positions.
Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones (Draftkings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $7,200)
Deep Sea Dive: Baker Mayfield (Draftkings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $6,900)
Jonathan Taylor (Draftkings: $5,900 / FanDuel: $6,400)
It is time that the Indianapolis Colts unleash the beast and feed him so he can reach the full potential that we hoped for and dreamed of all offseason. As a JT truther, I will stand my ground and believe that talent will always win out (eventually), and I think we are on the brink of the Jonathan Taylor breakout. PLEASE, Frank Reich, don’t be the Sean McVays and Bill Belichicks of the world, who make us play a guessing game of who gets the majority of snaps this week. You drafted this guy in the friggin’ 2nd round — traded UP to get him, even — so show us some damn initiative and let him take the reigns. Last week, Taylor received 26 touches while almost fully phasing out a pesky Jordan Wilkins. The last time the Colts and Titans met, it was Nyheim Hines who put up a stellar performance and stole the show, but he’s an outlier here considering he’s mostly a pass-catching running back, and the only running back who’s accumulated more than 29 yards through the air against them. Most of the damage running backs do to the Titans is done on the ground. I think we’ll see a changing of the guard here this week and I’m absolutely ready to get hurt again and put JT into my lineups. The Titans aren’t stopping a guy like him a second time while presenting the 5th easiest matchup to opposing running backs this season. **Editor’s Note: Jonathan Taylor was ruled out for Sunday’s game after being placed on the COVID/IR list.**
Kareem Hunt (Draftkings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $6,600)
Kareem Hunt! What are you doing down here at a value? I’m honestly not sure but I’m not even mad! Maybe it’s because Nick Chubb is back and he’s been churning out the points while technically leading the backfield. Even with Chubb back in the lineup over these last two games, Hunt has still received 37 opportunities. Yes, I realize a lot of that may be due to the fact the Browns can’t stop playing through absolute trash weather conditions and are forced to run the ball more, but honestly, that’s still just kind of their thing. They want to run the offense through their run game and not Baker Mayfield. This game may not give us bad weather vibes, but it will most likely give us some bad competition with Mike Glennon under center for Jacksonville. The Browns should have no issue sticking to the script and running all over this Jacksonville defense, who give up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If you don’t want to pay up for Chubb, don’t. You can get nearly the same player for $1,500 less. Just sayin’!
Honorable Mention: Wayne Gallman (Draftkings: $5,000 / FanDuel: $5,700)
Deep Sea Dive: James White (Draftkings: $4,500 / FanDuel: $5,400)
Robby Anderson (Draftkings: $6,100 / FanDuel: $6,400)
Here are some things we need to know about Robby Anderson and his matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend: Anderson has been letting us down because of his lack of touchdown production. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since many moons ago, dating back to Week 1 of the season. But, here is some good news for you about that. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed 17 wide receivers touchdowns within these last 11 weeks. They’ve also allowed a touchdown every 12.1 targets, which ranks as the second most often in the league. Did you know that Robby Anderson ranks 9th among wide receivers in targets just behind Keenan Allen? Anderson is averaging 8.6 targets per game — he’s a target monster! We just need to see the touchdowns and yards to go along with it, and as a field stretcher, I think Anderson has plenty of opportunity to have a productive day against the Vikings. I believe this is the week he has a chance to totally redeem himself and get the score we’ve been looking for. Fire him up because after he has this great game, a guy with that many targets won’t be this cheap again!
Christian Kirk (Draftkings: $5,800 / FanDuel: $6,100)
Yeah, this guy has fizzled out in back-to-back weeks after putting on an absolute clinic Weeks 6-9. You’ll have that when you have a guy like DeAndre Hopkins on the other side of you making other-worldly catches in the end zone, with guys draped all over him, and an MVP-caliber quarterback like Kyler Murray, who can take the ball and run it around himself to win games. But this week projects to be a Christian Kirk kind of experience we have grown to love. We don’t want dudley Christian anymore. This guy is too good to be held down for too long with his big-play ability, and this week, he faces the league’s worst defense in explosive pass-play rate allowed. While Hopkins is DeAndre-freakin’-grown-ass-man-Hopkins, you have to realize every team is planning and plotting to slow him down. This week, he’ll be finding himself up against Stephon Gilmore, who we know to have a 99 madden rating, so look the frig out! I’m just kidding (kinda)… he’s a really good corner! He can shut down your WR1, or at least keep them busy enough that it gives the WR2 on the opposing offense a lot more looks. I know what you’re thinking (or maybe not thinking at all) — WELL, doesn’t that leave Kirk with that one McCourty brother who absolutely went the hell off last season? Yeah, we aren’t scared of the Pats anymore, man. As per Fantasypros.com, of the 88 cornerbacks who’ve played at least 175 snaps in coverage, McCourty has allowed the second-most PPR points per target in coverage this season. Other WR2’s have had some great success going up against the Patriots such as Tim Patrick, Breshad Perriman, and Brandin Cooks. I think Kirk is a good enough wide receiver to take on this task. There’s also no Larry Fitzgerald this week. I’m also not worried about Kyler’s shoulder injury. This guy is an elite quarterback and baseball player, don’t you forget it, so don’t you doubt his arm. As far as everything I’ve heard from fantasy football doctors on Twitter, no one is overly concerned.
Honorable Mention: Cole Beasley (Draftkings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $5,400)
Deep Sea Dive: Darius Slayton (Draftkings: $4,900 / FanDuel: $5,900)
Hunter Henry (Draftkings: $4,800 / FanDuel: $5,900)
I love Hunter Henry this week. You want to know why? Because he’s tied to the up-and-coming, soon-to-take-the-league-by-storm, Justin Herbert. Any offensive weapon tied to this guy right now should have a fantasy manager licking their chops. But, hey, I get it. It’s been a bit boring as a Henry manager, seeing as he’s been having the same week every week, finishing with exactly four receptions in five of his last six games, and also posting no more than 50 yards in each of his last eight games. Touchdowns have saved him the last two weeks. But, that’s boring, so why the hell am I so excited about Hunter Henry? Because he’s another player who’s going to have his redemption game this week to win our hearts over again, duh! The Los Angeles Chargers take on the Buffalo Bills, who keep bleeding points to the tight end position. Henry has scored a touchdown and put up 13+ fantasy points in two straight games. So share the love, Keenan Allen, you can’t be the only guy on this team getting all the targets! Buffalo’s defense has allowed six touchdowns to the tight end position and the third-most fantasy points. I don’t know how many games of Justin Herbert’s or Josh Allen’s you’ve seen this season, but I think these guys will put on a show and have plenty of fantasy goodness to go around in this one.
Evan Engram (Draftkings: $4,500 / FanDuel: $5,600)
It seems Evan Engram and I meet here every Saturday morning now, I guess. I mean, it’s with good reason. He seemed to be trending up with 29 targets from Weeks 7-9 and finally getting used more in the offense. But, then comes Engram’s kryptonite, who seems to be no one else’s kryptonite, in the Philadelphia Eagles, who typically give up a lot of points to the tight end position. Both times Engram has faced them, he’s put up absolute stinkers and luckily, there will be no more chances for that as the Giants no longer face the Eagles this season. But, we’re over that and onto bigger and better things. We get one of my favorite matchups to target for tight ends in the Cincinnati Bengals, who might be just the opponent we’re looking for to relinquish some of these targets back Engram’s way. The Bengals allow opposing team’s tight ends to be targeted 23.1% of the time, which ranks third-highest in the league. There also have been seven tight ends that totaled double-digit PPR points against them. So why not Engram this week? Do we really have a plethora of options at the tight end position at this point? I mean, I don’t think so. No one seems wildly productive outside of Travis Kelce, so take your chances on the guy with a good opportunity to help give you a nice fantasy day.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Reed (Draftkings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $5,00)
Deep Sea Dive: Trey Burton (Draftkings: $3,200 / FanDuel: $5,400)
New York Giants vs Cincinnati Bengals (Draftkings: $3,200 / FanDuel: $4,300)
Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Draftkings: $3,100 / FanDuel: $4,900)
Honorable Mention: Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans (Draftkings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $4,700)
Deep Sea Dive: Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots (Draftkings: $2,900 / FanDuel: $4,000)
Looking for more great Week 11 content? Check out Josh’s Confidence Plays and Ryan’s Streams of the Week!