There aren’t many teams more intriguing in 2025 than the Houston Texans. The young franchise quarterback is in place in C.J. Stroud, alongside a clear top target in Nico Collins. Exciting rookies exist in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and the team added a weapon out of the slot in Christian Kirk. Veterans round out the rest, with a tandem of Joe Mixon/Nick Chubb running the backfield while Dalton Schultz provides solid reliability at tight end. Yet little went as planned in 2024.
Injuries to incumbent starters Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell didn’t help, but the shortcomings alongside the offensive line left Stroud scrambling for his life. Houston recognized this and will enter 2025 with at least two new starters and potentially up to four. Stroud suffered under constant pressure that resulted in a sophomore slump, absorbing the second-most sacks in the league with 63.
As a result, Stroud’s ADP has plummeted into mid-QB2 ranges. Has the pendulum swung too far?
Let’s dive in.
C.J. Stroud 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
What Went Wrong in 2024?
Taking 63 sacks isn’t just an unusual amount. It’s a standout figure dating back to 2003, when TeamRankings first began tracking the stat. Aside from Stroud, only six other QBs absorbed 63+ sacks in a season:
- Caleb Williams (68, 2024)
- Sam Howell (65, 2023)
- Joe Burrow (70, 2021)
- Deshaun Watson (65, 2018)
- Jon Kitna (63, 2006)
- David Carr (68, 2005)
The first place to blame, of course, is the offensive line. No team had a worse pressure rate (34.5%) or clean pocket rate (59.8%) than the Texans, per PlayerProfiler. As a result, Houston let left tackle Laremy Tunsil and left guard Shaq Mason walk while signing tackle Trent Brown and guards Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram.
This wasn’t just a byproduct of poor offensive line talent, where pass-rushers simply won. Houston struggled with the simple things as penalties constantly put Stroud in uncomfortable drop-back situations. Tunsil led all offensive linemen in flags (17), which included a league-high 12 false starts. It’s realistic that the addition of Cam Robinson could be an upgrade at left tackle.
Houston also struggled in the red zone, ranking 28th in RZ scoring percentage as points were consistently left on the table. Stroud isn’t immune to criticism. He struggled against zone looks and held the ball too long given the circumstances, with only four signal callers having a longer time to throw than Stroud’s 2.98.
But the problems surrounding the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year are far bigger than the player himself.
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Why Stroud Can Bounce Back in 2025!
When the product looks abhorrent on the field, changes have to be made. The Texans did just that this offseason.
They began by firing offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, whose failures to adjust the scheme with a constantly crumbling offense led to Stroud’s pain in the pocket. ESPN also reported Houston’s players gave less-than-stellar reviews of Slowik’s offense. The team also fired offensive line coach Chris Strausser.
Houston followed by trading Tunsil and releasing Mason, two veteran starters, and replaced both with Robinson and Tomlinson. There should be some hope that 2024 second-rounder Blake Fisher can grow after a rough rookie season, and the additions of Brown, Ingram, and Jake Andrews should provide alternative depth options the team didn’t have a year ago.
Simply put, and for good reason, Houston threw out what people knew as the 2024 Texans offense. Expecting the same despite such significant changes is rash.
New OC Caley comes from the promising coaching tree of Sean McVay. Before that, he spent seven years from 2015 to 2022 as part of the Patriots dynasty under Bill Belichick. The resume is both strong and promising, and while there are concerns with a 42-year-old coordinator who’s never called plays in the NFL, there are more reasons to expect a bounce-back.
It also cannot be forgotten how good Stroud was in 2023, battling to the Divisional Round with the third-most passing yards ever by a rookie quarterback. This isn’t about revitalizing a promising yet underwhelming prospect like Bryce Young. This is about elevating a quarterback with superstar potential.
Expecting a top-10 leap might be premature, but Stroud could contend for low-end QB1 value with a higher floor than many expect. As the QB16 off the board, often taking even later than that, Stroud is set to return good value.
Consider him as your late-round shot in single-QB leagues and a steal as a QB2 in Superflex.
Looking for your favorite team? This link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Houston Texans
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on C.J. Stroud in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Texans from Ryan Weisse.
Joe Mixon
Houston brought in Mixon to be the guy, and that’s exactly how they used him last season. He’s not the most efficient back, but he’s still trusted at the goal line and involved in the passing game enough to make a difference in PPR fantasy scoring. While Nick Chubb at this stage of his career and rookie Woody Marks aren’t exactly fierce competition, Mixon is already battling injury. The Texans could look to lessen his workload this season. Mixon is probably still a solid RB2, but there are red flags.
Nick Chubb
Even after the injuries, I don’t believe Chubb is cooked, but he’s no longer the focal point of an offense either. Barring a major injury to Mixon, the Texans seem likely to keep Chubb in a rotational role, and while the efficiency might still be there, the volume we’re used to won’t be. But that does not mean Chubb has no fantasy value. With his efficiency, he can do damage on 150 touches. Plus, Mixon is already hurt. Chubb could easily score in the Top 36, and at his current cost, that makes him a value.
Woody Marks
Marks brings some juice to the backfield but looks buried behind Mixon and Chubb for now. He’s the kind of player who could climb the depth chart with a few strong outings, but unless injuries hit, his role will be limited. Worth a dynasty stash, but not much value in redraft.
Nico Collins
The breakout is behind him; now Collins is just a star. He’s the alpha in this offense and Stroud’s go-to guy in every situation. Big plays, red zone work, consistent targets, it’s all there. As long as he stays healthy, Collins is a legit WR1, but at his current draft cost, you may be drafting him at his ceiling.
Christian Kirk
Kirk quietly steps into the WR2 role here and brings a steady veteran presence to the offense. The target share will be inconsistent behind Collins, but Kirk has always found ways to stay fantasy-relevant, especially in full PPR scoring. He’s more of a Flex piece than a locked-in starter, but Kirk is one of my favorite WR3s in fantasy right now.
Jayden Higgins / Jaylin Noel
Both Higgins and Noel are talented, but they’re expected to begin the year behind Collins and Kirk. Higgins profiles as the future outside threat, while Noel could carve out a slot role in time. For now, though, they’re more “next man up” than must-roster. If injuries strike, they’ll be hot waiver wire commodities. With Tank Dell still recovering and unlikely to play this season, Higgins could start the year as the WR3 and see the field when the Texans run out 11-personnel.
Dalton Schultz
Schultz was what he’s always been in 2024, quietly dependable. He’s not flashy, and he won’t win you weeks, but he’s one of the few tight ends to see 80+ targets last year. With all the additions to the WR corps this season, projecting Schultz is complicated. He’s likely to remain a steady red-zone option for Stroud. That role should make him a decent streamer who’s probably better in best ball than weekly lineups.
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