Like the chicken and the egg, the Steelers’ backfield has been one of life’s great thought experiments. Was Jaylen Warren everyone’s favorite 1-B running back because he was that good, or because Najee Harris was everyone’s least favorite 1-A running back?
Now that Najee Harris has moved on from Pittsburgh, we’re set to find out if Jaylen Warren has another level, or if he’s destined to be a less-and-less popular 1-B running back.
Jaylen Warren 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
2024 Review
Heading into 2024, Jaylen Warren was the darling of Best Ball, Zero-RB drafters. Then, like pretty much everything Zero RB in 2024, it all went to s**t. Warren’s pulled hamstring in the Steelers’ preseason game with Buffalo cast a pall over his outlook. He would return in time for the season opener, but perhaps he shouldn’t have.
The hamstring injury was a precursor. He also dealt with injuries to his ribs, back, and knee that cost him practice and game time. That litany of injuries almost certainly contributed to Warren’s disappointing season, as he bled over 333 yards from scrimmage, three touchdowns, and 22 receptions from his 2023 numbers.
2025 Look Ahead
The organization that’s had one head coach since the end of the last Bush administration just went and completely overhauled their team, specifically their offense. George Pickens, out; D.K. Metcalf, in. Najee Harris, out; rookie Kaleb Johnson, in; Minkah Fitzpatrick, out; Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith, in. And, probably most importantly, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, out; attention black hole Aaron Rodgers, in.
If you’re anything like me, and I know I am, you’re sick and tired of hearing about the new Steelers quarterback, but everything in this offense will revolve around how he wants to play. Rodgers hates pre-snap motion, play action, playing under center, and snapping the ball with more than 01 on the play clock. You know, things that are good for offense generally and fantasy production. He wants to be able to see the defense at all times and for as long as possible.
The good thing for Warren is that Rodgers, for whatever faults he has, supports his running backs in the passing game. Breece Hall saw 76 targets last year. Aaron Jones saw 72 in 2022 and was on 70+ target full-season paces in the three seasons prior. The question then becomes, how will the Steelers deploy their running backs in 2025? The default assumption would be that Kaleb Johnson would handle the between-the-tackles work, and Warren would be the change-of-pace and passing-down back.
There’s no way Rodgers and the Steelers would trust the rookie, who barely played on passing downs in college at Iowa (where they barely threw the ball), in pass protection. The problem with this logical assessment is that Jaylen Warren is also an atrocious pass-blocker. Sure, he has more time in Arthur Smith’s system than Johnson, but if that time wasn’t well-spent, what good is it?
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Conclusion: A Lot of Ifs
If Arthur Smith dials up a bunch of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends, one wide receiver formation) max-protect isolation routes, Jaylen Warren could be the check-down option. That’s where the addition of Jonnu Smith comes in.
Now, Jonnu’s not a great (or good) blocker either. And neither is holdover tight end Pat Freiermuth. Other holdover tight end Darnell Washington is a good pass blocker. He’s basically a right tackle with a receiver-eligible uniform number. It may not be quality, but it is quantity. In this case, that may be all they need.
The tight ends block, Rodgers waits on D.K. Metcalf to get open, if he can’t, Warren gets the ball. Throw in that Art will probably call run plays whenever it’s humanly reasonable, and there’s a big opportunity for Jaylen Warren to get a lot of touches in 2025 and regain favored 1-B status.
Looking for your favorite team? This link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Pittsburgh Steelers
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on Jaylen Warren in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Steelers from Joel Wirth.
Rodgers was not efficient in 2024. His fantasy production was all volume-based. He’s unlikely to see that volume level in Pittsburgh. You can’t count on more than 100 yards rushing for the season for him. Any volume regression could make him useless for fantasy.
A zone-based runner at Iowa, he’s a much better fit for Arthur Smith’s offense than Najee Harris was. He’s not physically similar to Nick Chubb, but he could be statistically similar if the quarterback allows it.
Metcalf isn’t the nuanced route-runner that Davante Adams is. Rodgers’ deep ball still can be sublime, but the consistency is long gone. I’m a D.K. fan, but I’m nervous about this pairing, even if he should absolutely dominate receiver targets.
Calvin Austin, Jr.
The Smurfs movie opens this weekend. Austin has a minor role as Steeler Smurf.
Wilson’s rookie season was a literal complete wash. There’s almost no chance he can develop a rapport with Rodgers that would get him enough work to make him fantasy relevant.
Other than Jermichael Finley in 2011 and Robert Tonyan’s rando 11 TD season, Rodgers hasn’t supported elite fantasy tight ends. Jonnu’s fantasy effects will be third order. Disastrous trade for his personal fantasy value.
The fact that the Steelers felt they needed to take on the entirety of Jalen Ramsey’s contract to bring in Jonnu Smith should tell you all you need to know about what they think of Freiermuth.
One of my favorite players in the league. No fantasy value.
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