Plenty of fantasy analysts were quick to jump aboard the hype train when Evan Engram signed with the Broncos this offseason. A veteran tight end with recent fantasy success joins a Sean Payton offense. What’s not to love, right?
Well…maybe a few things.
The optimism is rooted in two beliefs. First, the idea that Sean Payton is a “tight end whisperer” thanks to the dominance of Jimmy Graham a decade ago. Second, Evan Engram is still the guy we saw in 2023. But if you take a step back, both assumptions start to fall apart.
Evan Engram Fantasy Football Outlook
Jimmy Graham Isn’t Walking Through That Door
Let’s start with Payton. Yes, he coached Jimmy Graham to elite fantasy finishes in New Orleans, but Graham is really the only tight end who ever broke out under Payton. And that was a long time ago.
Engram, for all his athleticism, isn’t Jimmy Graham. Graham was a 6-foot-6, 265-pound, former basketball-playing, redzone monster. Engram is 6’3, 240 lbs, and basically a big receiver who struggles to score touchdowns. Their play styles are different, their usage has always been different, and Graham was 27 years old and in his prime when Payton coached him. Engram turns 31 this season and is coming off his worst fantasy showing in years.
In 2024, Engram battled through hamstring issues before a shoulder injury ended his season. He played just nine games and averaged 9.9 PPR points per game, his lowest mark since 2021. His 7.8 yards per catch were a career low. That’s not a trend you want to see as a player enters his thirties.
A Volume Trap
The other thing propping up Engram’s fantasy value is his 2023 season, where he finished as one of the more consistent tight ends in the league. But let’s not forget how he got there: volume. That year, he saw 143 targets. That’s more than most wide receivers see in many years. Looking back, Engram has three top-10 seasons in his career, and was never under 98 targets in any of those seasons.
Engram needs volume because he isn’t a touchdown scorer. Since his rookie season in 2017, he hasn’t hit more than four touchdowns in a single year. Jimmy Graham scored 26 touchdowns in two years with Payton. Engram has 25 in his career. So for fantasy purposes, if the volume dries up, so does Engram’s value. And Denver could be a rough spot for volume.
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The Broncos TE Black Hole
Sean Payton took over the Broncos in 2023. Since then, every tight end on the roster combined for 131 targets. That’s 65 targets per year, for the whole position group. To put that in perspective, Engram saw 64 targets in just nine games last season. The Broncos would need to nearly double their tight end usage for Engram to even sniff 100 targets again.
And this isn’t new. Even in Payton’s final years in New Orleans, long after the Jimmy Graham era, his tight ends rarely broke the 100-target mark. The offensive philosophy just doesn’t lean that way unless he has a generational mismatch at the position.
Engram, at this stage of his career, probably isn’t that.
Is There a Path to Relevance?
Okay, let’s be fair, there is a world where Engram turns in a usable fantasy season.
Denver doesn’t have a locked-in WR2, though Marvin Mims has looked good. And their pass-catching back situation is murky at best, unless rookie RJ Harvey steps up big in his first year. This means Engram could slot in as the second-best option behind Courtland Sutton. If Payton tweaks the scheme, if Engram stays healthy, and if the targets funnel his way, we might see solid fantasy numbers.
Let’s say he lands 85 targets, which would require a moderate philosophical shift. Using his career averages (67% catch rate, ~10 yards per reception), that’s:
- 57 receptions
- 570 yards
- Maybe five touchdowns
That’s roughly 144 PPR points, which would’ve ranked as TE13 last year. And that might be his ceiling.
Conclusion
Evan Engram’s move to Denver has created more buzz than it probably should. He’s aging, coming off an injury-riddled season, and walking into an offense that hasn’t prioritized the tight end position in years. While he’s talented enough to carve out a role, the volume he needs to be fantasy-relevant just might not be there.
If everything breaks right, he could be a fringe TE1. But if you’re banking on a Jimmy Graham revival… you’re probably looking at the wrong tight end.
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A Look Inside the Denver Broncos
Editor’s Note: While this article focused on Evan Engram in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Broncos from Joshua Hudson.
Bo Nix
Bo Nix was arguably the biggest surprise among QBs last season. And it wasn’t because of his arm. His 430 rushing yards shocked many because it was almost double what he provided during his final season in college. But a potential 4,000-yard passer with 400+ rushing yard upside is an easy top-8 QB in fantasy. As the current QB8 off the board, there’s an argument he’s a value in fantasy drafts.
J.K. Dobbins
Not signing until June kind of tells the story on Dobbins. If you take out the first two weeks of his 2024 season, he didn’t have a single 100-yard game and averaged 3.8 yards per carry. But the Chargers’ offensive line isn’t as good as the Broncos, so there’s a chance a healthy Dobbins has a good start to 2025. But once rookie RJ Harvey grasps the offense, he might be on the outside looking in. Still, his RB40 price tag is laughable.
RJ Harvey
Harvey has been the most polarizing rookie RB of the offseason when you consider the situation he’s walking into. No Broncos RB had more than 139 rushing attempts, and Javonte Williams finished as the RB30 with 70 targets. Sean Payton loves throwing to RBs, and he did so only 20% of the time last season. There’s a world where Harvey can finish as a top-15 RB if everything comes together. How much Dobbins has left will ultimately decide that.
Courtland Sutton
Sutton is the safest bet in this Broncos offense. His role is established, as is his target share. He’s a top-24 guy who gets knocked because of Sean Payton’s love for spreading the ball around.
Marvin Mims
I can sing the praises of Marvin Mims all day long. (And I did on the Broncos A Look Inside episode.) Very few WRs in his range have the potential for 80+ targets. Add in his big-play ability, and you have a player who can approach 800 yards and 7+ TDs. Give me that value at WR56 prices all day.
Pat Bryant / Devaughn Vele / Troy Franklin
This is your “under 50 targets” group that elevates if injuries occur. But they’ll have breakout games that make you think you should blow your FAAB on them, only to disappoint you for the next three weeks. These guys are why fantasy managers loathe Sean Payton.
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