Every year, there is seemingly one late-round running back that takes the league by storm. Chase Brown was among those who outperformed expectations. After a slow start, Brown made his way to an RB10 finish in PPR leagues, thanks in part to Zack Moss missing most of the season with a neck injury.
We have seen many breakout running backs come and go over the years. The likes of James Robinson and Dameon Pierce won championships, only to lose those championships the very next year. Predicting repeat performances is one of the keys to sustained fantasy success.
Right now, Chase Brown is being drafted as if he will repeat his 2024 success. He is RB11 on Underdog Fantasy, just ahead of Breece Hall. Can he pay off that value, or will he get Mossed?
Chase Brown 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
A Look Behind
Brown’s sophomore year was a tale of two seasons. During Weeks 1 through 8, he was barely a Top-30 option. But after ranking as the RB28 through Week 8, he became the RB5 from Week 9 through 17. If you told anyone they would get the RB5 at RB11, they would smash the draft button every time.
But there is another key consideration when looking at those splits. During those first eight games, when Zack Moss was healthy, Brown only achieved a 60% snap share once. From Week 9 on, he was on the field at least 80% of the time.
Because Moss got hurt, we never got to see if Brown would have naturally become a three-down back. What we did see is that he can handle the load, for the most part.
Brown did miss the final game of the season with an ankle injury. He suffered an ankle sprain during the fourth quarter of his final start of the year. Current indications suggest he is healthy, but it is worth paying attention to training camp reports as draft season progresses.
Regardless, that leaves us with two questions. First, will the Bengals welcome Zack Moss back into the fold? And second, can Brown handle a full load?
Follow the Money
As reported by Sports Illustrated, the Bengals restructured Zack Moss’ contract this offseason. While Moss had another year on his contract, the fact that they did not move on from him and eat the $1.5 million dead cap hit either means the Bengals want Moss on their team or that they are cheap. Probably a little bit of both.
In addition to keeping Moss on the team, Cincinnati went and added Samaje Perine to the team and acquired two rookies, one via the draft and one as an undrafted free agent. They did not spend a ton at the position, indicating they are largely happy with their running back room and just needed to build depth.
With that in mind, it is fair to assume that Chase Brown is still set to be the Bengals’ lead running back. The only outstanding question is what kind of snap share that will entail.
Before Moss’ exit, the Bengals had largely shifted to a 60/40 split in favor of Brown. Heading into 2025, that is surely the floor. The ceiling will largely have to do with Zack Moss. Outside of Moss, the return of Perine could take limited snaps away from the primary duo, as Perine is a solid pass blocker and pass catcher.
Regardless, Brown should expect around 70% of the load. Given his efficiency and pass-catching prowess, that will make him a solid running back, albeit in an offense that runs the ball less than almost the entire league. But can he continue to manage that hefty of a load?
The NPI crew broke down the Bengals is this mini episode!
How Many Touches Can Chase Brown Handle?
In 2025, Brown finished with 283 touches, approaching that magical 300 mark that defines true workhorse running backs. While we have yet to see him accomplish that in back-to-back years, he did manage a more impressive feat during his final year in college.
Let’s rewind to 2022 for a moment. Brown was then playing for Illinois and touched the ball on a whopping 355 occasions that season. That translates to nearly 30 touches per game.
Now, there are the usual caveats that it was against college talent, and 300 touches in the NFL is a different story. But at a minimum, that lets us know that his legs can handle the toll of 300 carries. There will always be room for less predictable injuries, but it is encouraging that he was able to manage a significant uptick in usage.
That said, he is being drafted as an RB1, so we need to be sure we can rely on him.
Is RB11 Too Much?
The issue with drafting Chase Brown as the RB11 is less about how he stacks up against the other running backs and more about what you are giving up in the process. If I know I am drafting a running back and my choices are Brown, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, and James Cook, it is largely a coin flip.
However, by drafting Brown, you will not be drafting any of Marvin Harrison, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. All that to say, I prefer taking a receiver at this portion of the draft. The potential floor for Brown if he fails to repeat an 80% snap share is prohibitive enough that I would rather wait for cheaper running backs that are more likely to garner significant touches.
Plus, given the fact that Brown is being drafted at the beginning of the third round, you could already have one of Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, or Jahmyr Gibbs, all of whom have way better floors and ceilings than Brown. That said, I will be keeping a close eye on training camp to see if there are any last-minute changes that shift further in Brown’s favor.
Looking for your favorite team? This link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Cincinnati Bengals
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on Chase Brown in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Bengals from Josh Hudson.
Joe Burrow
Only two QBs since 2000 have thrown for 40 or more TDs in back-to-back seasons. That’s the hurdle Burrow faces to potentially return his QB5 value. With the range of outcomes for QBs that don’t possess high rushing floors being so wide, Burrow’s not really a value in fantasy drafts. That said, any QB tied to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins has upside, so his price makes sense.
Zack Moss
Moss wasn’t the most effective RB prior to his neck injury. Then Chase Brown took off to end the season. Then the team brought in Samaje Perine (again) as another veteran RB. Then the team added two rookie RBs. You catching the vibes? No need to draft Moss.
Samaje Perine
Perine can catch passes and pass block. He’s also a 235-pound bowling ball. He’s played in this system before and is still an effective player. If Chase Brown falters, it’s Perine you want instead of Moss.
Ja’Marr Chase
Don’t overthink it — he’s the WR1 and has a case to be fantasy’s 1.01.
Tee Higgins
His draft price is his ceiling. He’s always dealing with hamstring issues, and while he’s hit 1,000 yards and crossed 10+ TDs, he’s never done both in the same season. And he’s never exceeded 110 targets in a season. So really, he’s a better version of Mike Williams. I’m fading at cost because his draft cost suggests Joe Burrow is likely to throw for 4,500+ yards and 40+ TDs again.
Andrei Iosivas
Ryan Weisse’s favorite player, Iosivas, as the third WR in this offense, will have value. And if Higgins misses time, that value increases. He’s not a weekly starter, but his red zone prowess makes him a Flex option.
Jermaine Burton
Burton’s rookie season was lost for many reasons, and his attitude played a major part in it. With the team re-signing Higgins and TE Mike Gesicki, Burton’s best hope is to overtake Iosivas as the team’s WR3. His talent suggests he should be, but don’t bet on it.
Mike Gesicki
The running joke last season was that Gesicki was only playable when Tee Higgins was out. With Higgins re-signing, same as Gesicki, the same joke will run for the next couple of seasons. He’s a streamer and that’s about it.
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