Few players entered the league with more hype than Kyle Pitts. Yet, after four seasons, fantasy football managers enter the summer far more concerned and confused over the tight end than ever.
The Atlanta Falcons underwhelmed in 2024. Kirk Cousins all but concluded his career with a whimper after struggling for 14 weeks following his Achilles injury the year prior. But Pitts, who was supposed to explode following the exit of Arthur Smith’s conservative offense, was just as bad. He stumbled to a 47-602-4 line playing all 17 games.
His 1,026-yard rookie season in 2021, where he scored only one touchdown, left fantasy football managers excited for positive regression. But it feels like a distant memory. Will a contract year and lower expectations mean a post-hype breakout for the Florida product?
Here’s what to know.
Kyle Pitts 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
How Kyle Pitts Got Here
A promising rookie season has since spiraled into disappointment and doubt. That spiral began in 2022 for his sophomore season in large part due to the shortcomings of Marcus Mariota. That season effectively closed the door on Mariota’s chances as a starter due to his shortcomings, and he has yet to start a game since the 2022 season with Atlanta.
But Week 11 of 2022 also saw Pitts leave with a torn meniscus and PCL, an injury that seems to have had a larger impact in hindsight than originally believed. Pitts averaged 6.2 targets per game with seven games of 70+ yards through his first two years (27 games). Since the injury, Pitts has averaged 4.8 targets per game with four games of 70+ yards (34 games).
Quarterback play has been consistently inconsistent across all four years for Pitts — from Cousins to Desmond Ridder to Marcus Mariota to Matt Ryan’s final season in Atlanta — so it’s hard to blame one signal caller over another.
The offensive scheme did change from Smith to Zac Robinson for the 2024 season, two years removed from Pitts’ injury, which also resulted in the franchise’s highest scoring offense and its most yards since 2019.
Yet the now 24-year-old tight end still struggled. Pitts entered the 2025 offseason sidelined in OTAs and June minicamp due to a strained muscle in his foot, while trade rumors circled like vultures in the sky.
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What To Expect in 2025
A contract year has brought the best out of countless players before, and the opportunity still exists for Pitts to take the leap many expected him to.
Darnell Mooney caught a career-high five touchdowns and posted his best yardage totals since 2021. Negative regression seems all but certain, and Michael Penix could still take a leap in his first full season as a starter after years of mediocrity under center in Atlanta.
But there’s no reason, aside from fond memories or blind touchdown hope, to expect things to change for Pitts. His struggles as a blocker saw him average a mediocre 62.6% snap share in 2024, a figure he surpassed just twice from Week 8 onward. When the Falcons run the ball as much as they do behind Bijan Robinson — placing ninth in rushing rate, which won’t change in 2025 — an inconsistent snap share is untenable for fantasy managers.
If yardage and receptions are unreliable for Pitts, touchdowns will be critical. Pitts saw just 12 red zone targets in 17 games last season, catching just four of those targets. He’s never been effective in that regard either, catching just five of 15 during his breakout rookie season while never exceeding four touchdowns in a season.
Then, you add in the question mark of yet another injury and an uncertain role among a regime that didn’t draft him. Now, Pitts looks highly unlikely to return the value many hoped he’d bring by the end of his rookie deal.
A trade could change everything. A fresh start is desperately needed. There must be some front offices still enamored with Pitts’ athletic profile, akin to how some dynasty managers still believe in the tight end.
But a midseason trade seems more likely than a preseason one. Dallas Goedert, going in the same range as Pitts, is worth targeting at cost as an alternative.
Dreaming of what Pitts can be is for the 2026 offseason. And until he dons new team colors — and even then, expectations and ADP will run out of control — that fresh start won’t be coming ahead of draft days this summer.
Looking for your favorite team? This link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Atlanta Falcons
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on Kyle Pitts in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Falcons from Josh Hudson.
Michael Penix Jr.
In Penix’s first three starts at the end of 2024, he averaged around 33 pass attempts per game. That was a small uptick from Kirk Cousins as the starter. It’s reasonable to believe this offense won’t change at all heading into 2025. Without much (read: any) rushing upside, we’re looking at hopefully a top 15 finish with over 4,000 yards and 28 or more TDs. It feels like a sucker’s bet from a young QB.
Kirk Cousins
Cousins will dominate training camp news as the QB who was benched and supplanted. Will he get traded? A preseason injury could change his season-long trajectory. Until then, he’s a polarizing backup.
Bijan Robinson
Robinson is third among RBs in targets over the last two seasons. His first two seasons in the NFL, mind you. He topped 1,400 yards in his second season and finished as the RB3 last season. He’s my pick as the RB1 in fantasy football in 2025, and he’s the consensus RB2 right now. Pay the price and laugh all the way to a championship.
Tyler Allgeier
A former 1,000-yard rusher who has taken a backseat to a generational talent, Allgeier is the handcuff of all handcuffs. God forbid Robinson suffers an injury, Allgeier will find himself in a dominant rushing share and top 15 potential.
Drake London
In three games with Michael Penix Jr at QB, London finished with target shares of 29.6%, 37.1%, and 47.4%. His season-long target share of 28.26% last year puts him on a trajectory to finish as a top 3 WR if he can improve upon his career high 9 receiving TDs from last season. Draft him with confidence.
Darnell Mooney
Mooney was this close to topping 1,000 receiving yards in 2024. This Falcons offense is top 2 in the league in 11 personnel and will continue to throw in Mooney’s direction. Despite London’s elite target share, Mooney can approach a 20% share. That’s a screaming value at his current WR48 price tag.
Ray-Ray McCloud
McCloud was a surprise at the WR position last year, with a career high in targets, receptions, and yards. Logic would suggest McCloud will regress to the mean, and maybe we get a Kyle Pitts breakout. But you just read all about Pitts and his struggles, so McCloud might be the cheapest WR ever who can get you 80 targets.
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