After taking the league by storm in his first two seasons, Jonathan Taylor has had a bumpy ride since 2022. He then navigated two injury-riddled seasons before coming on strong in 2024. Even then, he missed three games.
Taylor had a bounce-back season in 2024, finishing in the Top 10 in half-PPR scoring. But even with this resurgence, there seems to be minimal energy for drafting him this season. Sure, he is being drafted as the RB8 on Underdog Fantasy, but he has become one of those players that no one talks about.
That is likely caused by the fact that he is still on the Indianapolis Colts, who have struggled to break out of mediocrity in recent years. Their quarterback situation continues to hold them back, which is impacting the overall upside of the rest of the team.
So, what do we make of Jonathan Taylor within this context?
Jonathan Taylor 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
A Look Behind
If I told you that Jonathan Taylor had the fourth most rushing yards in 2024, would you believe me? This fact surprised me when revisiting his 2024 season, largely because I quit watching the Colts down the stretch. And honestly, can you blame me?
Taylor finished his season with 1,431 yards and 11 touchdowns on 303 attempts and 136 receiving yards and one touchdown on 18 catches. The stat line alone says a mouthful about his season. He has always been more of a runner than a pass-catcher, but in 2024, it was more extreme than ever.
Those 18 catches marked Taylor’s fewest catches in a season ever. Even fewer than his shortened 2022 and 2023 seasons, where he logged 11 and 10 games, respectively.
Additionally, he continued to be less efficient than his breakout rookie and sophomore seasons, where he averaged over five yards per carry. In 2024, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry, which was an improvement from 2022 and 2023, but still short of his early career success.
And yet, Taylor still finished as the RB9 in half-PPR settings and RB13 in full PPR settings. The only catch?
In half-PPR, 39% of his 2024 fantasy points came in Weeks 16 through 18. Now, his snap count did increase during those games, but even then, it means that 39% of his points came in just 28% of his snaps.
But of course, this is the Indianapolis Colts, so we need to address the elephant in the room.
What Was Going on at Quarterback?
I wish I could give a simple answer to this question. It would be much easier for fantasy managers to contextualize Taylor’s 2024 season if Anthony Richardson played the first half of the season and then Joe Flacco took over for the rest of the season.
Instead, Richardson started the first four games before Joe Flacco took over through Week 6. Then, Richardson played Weeks 8 and 9, and Flacco handled Weeks 10 and 11. Finally, it seemed as if the second-year quarterback might take the rest of the season from Week 12, but then Flacco came back in at Week 17 to finish the season.
Chaos.
Not to mention the fact that Taylor missed Weeks 5 through 7 due to injury, so we have no data on that stint with Flacco. Even then, we can see one thing fairly clearly. Taylor had a strong start to the season that was first derailed by an injury. Then, he became boom or bust for a solid seven-week stretch. He averaged just over 10 half-PPR points per game between Week 8 and 15, despite four performances below 10 points.
Those four games are fairly instructive, though. During two of those games, Anthony Richardson fumbled the ball twice, including a fumble lost in each game. Additionally, Richardson rushed the ball at least six times in each of those games, including two games with 10 rushes each. Losing the ball on offense and losing rush attempts is not a formula for success. So, what does this mean for 2025?
We break down the Colts in our latest mini-episode!
Is Daniel Jones Going to Fix the Colts?
I (in)famously hyped up Daniel Jones in 2023, much to the destruction of multiple fantasy teams. As such, I had to make this joke about Jones “fixing” the Colts, if for no other reason than to give my editor a chuckle. (It did!)
No, Daniel Jones will most likely not fix the Colts. Joe Flacco already did that.
But, he is a less athletic quarterback than Anthony Richardson, which should mean fewer rush attempts for him and more for Jonathan Taylor. Now, Jones has his own history with turnovers, but has also supported elite running back performances in his days with Saquon Barkley in the backfield.
The only real outstanding question is if he will be the start for the Colts this year. If I were to put money on the situation, I would bet that Richardson begins the season on a short leash and that Jones ends up taking over early in the year. Richardson is also dealing with a shoulder injury, so it may be more Jones than even I expect. With that in mind, I’m relatively optimistic about Jonathan Taylor in 2025, but not enough to overdraft him.
As mentioned earlier, Taylor is being drafted as the RB8 on Underdog Fantasy. Even on a half-PPR website, that is a bit rich. I understand how it happens because he is among the lowest-ranked running backs with true RB1 potential.
But he has minimal pass-catching upside and limited efficiency. With that in mind, I will likely be looking for a receiver over Taylor and aim to find RB value elsewhere, particularly in redraft settings. I am more likely to draft him in Best Ball because of the elite upside, especially given that people are less likely to bet on the Colts in general this season. While a risky proposition in redraft, Taylor is an easy way to get different in Best Ball.
Looking for your favorite team? This link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Indianapolis Colts
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on Jonathan Taylor in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Colts from Josh Hudson.
Anthony Richardson
Look, we tried to tell you. While some of the most well-known and respected analysts in the industry heaped endless praise upon Richardson heading into last season, No Punt Intended told you not to waste the draft pick. And now he just needs to fend off Daniel Jones to be the unquestioned starter. If he’d put down the microphone and focus on football, I’d be willing to take the lottery ticket. But he’s already dealing with shoulder issues, so let someone else waste the draft pick.
Daniel Jones
We know Jones has wheels and can keep a defense honest. He also knows how to hand the football to elite running backs. He’s a great choice to keep this team mediocre. Don’t let him do the same to your fantasy teams.
Khalil Herbert
Herbert spent time with two teams last year and didn’t do anything. If Taylor misses games, Herbert needs to fend off a rookie for snaps and rushing opportunities. Maybe there’s handcuff value, but you can catch it on the waiver wire.
DJ Giddens
Giddens is the rookie people are spending a draft pick on later in drafts. Could he be Taylor’s backup? Sure. You’re fine leaving Giddens on the wire until there’s an injury.
Michael Pittman
It’s straight up criminal that Pittman is being drafted after the WR2 on his own team. A back injury last year should have cost Pittman most of the season. He managed to miss only one game, but he clearly wasn’t the same WR. If Daniel Jones ends up as the starter, Pittman can easily be a WR3 for your fantasy team. And if he doesn’t, he’s still more likely to be a WR3 than not.
Josh Downs
He seems to be the preferred target when Anthony Richardson is the QB. But even that doesn’t win you many fantasy weeks. He’s a top 40 WR, and that’s his upside with either Richardson or Jones at the helm. But he shouldn’t be drafted ahead of Pittman.
Alec Pierce/Adonai Mitchell
These two play the same position — run deep and catch bombs. They’re best ball targets. Don’t get fooled into blowing your FAAB on their blow-up weeks.
Tyler Warren
The biggest question heading into this season is how involved Warren will be in this offense. He’ll be the main TE pass catcher, but the Colts don’t throw a ton and targeted the TE position less than 15% of the time last season. There aren’t many targets to siphon from the RB position, so how many will he see? That kind of uncertainty makes his TE10 draft cost too risky in my book.
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