It’s not every day that a wide receiver catches over 100 passes and has 1,194 receiving yards, and their fantasy season is viewed as “disappointing.” But that’s precisely how some view CeeDee Lamb’s 2024.
Sure, Lamb’s starting QB, Dak Prescott, missed a large chunk of the season. But mediocre QB play hasn’t stopped guys like Justin Jefferson from having standout seasons. And really, his WR8 season last year in both overall points and in points per game isn’t a bad season at all. But as recently as 2023, he was the overall WR1 in points per game (23.7) and total points (403.2). So, you know, 2024 was a crotch punch by comparison.
Heading into 2025, the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach, one who’s been the offensive coordinator for the past two seasons. And the Cowboys acquired a new running mate for Lamb in the form of contested catch merchant, George Pickens. Will this lead to more regression for Lamb or a return to the heights of fantasy overall WR1?
Allow me to make the case for CeeDee Lamb’s return to overall WR1 status.
CeeDee Lamb 2025 Fantasy Outlook
The Offense
There have been plenty of jokes made about the Cowboys and their choice to promote Brian Schottenheimer from offensive coordinator to head coach. And I’m not going to pretend they’re not warranted. Schottenheimer is what Gen Z would call a “nepo baby”, whose father, Marty Schottenheimer, coached in the NFL from 1977 to 2006. In fact, Marty’s the career leader in wins among head coaches without winning a Super Bowl (200 wins).
Brian first became a position coach with his father in Washington, then followed him to San Diego from 2002-2005. His work with Drew Brees helped him land the OC job in New York with the Jets, where he worked with two different head coaches – Eric Mangini and Rex Ryan. He would later work with Jeff Fisher in St. Louis and Pete Carroll in Seattle before landing with Mike McCarthy in Dallas.
If you’ve watched and paid any attention to the NFL over the last couple of decades, you’d know that every single one of those coaches, with the exception of McCarthy, is a defensive-minded head coach. The common assumption around defensive-minded coaches is that they focus more on running the football and often have less-than-inspiring passing attacks. So is Brian Schottenheimer prepared to air it out and take advantage of where the skill lies on his offense?
The running game in Dallas currently leaves much to be desired. The acquisition of Pickens should mean a lot of pass attempts are in Dallas’ future. And quarterback Dak Prescott averages 34 pass attempts per game over his career.
And if you need an example of how this season can play out, I suggest looking at the Jets offense from 2006, Schottenheimer’s first season as a play caller. He had two WRs who commanded a high volume of targets (Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery) and three running backs who each topped 100 carries. Coles saw a 31.1% target share, Cotchery a 25.6% target share, and the next closest receiving option saw a 9.2% target share.
So the stars are aligning for plenty of targets heading Lamb’s way.
Lamb’s Earning Potential
When CeeDee Lamb was drafted in 2020, the Cowboys already had two 1,000-yard receivers on the roster – Amari Cooper & Michael Gallup. It didn’t take long for Lamb to prove he was better than both.
Over the first five years of his career, Lamb has never seen fewer than 111 targets in a season. He averages 8.9 targets per game in his career. His target share when on the field in each season of his career is 18%, 20.4%, 28.7%, 29.9%, and 27.3%. He’s topped 1,100 yards in four straight seasons. The last three seasons, he’s topped 150 targets and averages nine touchdowns a season. The last two seasons, he’s averaged over 10 targets per game.
He’s been a top-20 fantasy football WR for four straight seasons, and a top-10 WR for the last three seasons. The WRs opposite him over those four seasons – Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert – all failed to threaten his elite target share.
At this point, it’s a fair question to ponder – will having newly acquired George Pickens hurt or help his case as the overall WR1 in fantasy football in 2025?
How bout them Cowboys! We break down Dallas in this episode!
The Elite WR2 Effect
I get it. When an offense has two elite pass-catching weapons, it might seem like there’s not a large enough piece of the pie to give someone enough opportunities. But history might tell us differently.
Let’s just look at last year. Ja’Marr Chase finished as the overall WR1. His running mate, Tee Higgins, finished as the WR17. (His 18.5 PPG would’ve put him as WR6.) In 2022, Tyreek Hill finished as the overall WR2. His running mate, Jaylen Waddle, finished as the WR8. In 2021, Cooper Kupp had an all-time season with 191 targets and finished as the overall WR1. His running mate, Robert Woods, played in only 9 games, but his 15.2 PPG was tied for WR18.
There are a number of instances throughout history that further illustrate how Pickens’ arrival can help or hurt Lamb’s case. Think back to the “Greatest Show on Turf” days with Rams’ WRs Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, Peyton Manning with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne for the Colts, even Tom Brady with Randy Moss and Wes Welker on the Patriots.
Now remember earlier when I mentioned that, during Brian Schottenheimer’s first season as a play caller, the Jets had two WRs earn target shares over 25% each. The recipe is there for both Lamb and Pickens to produce. And history shows it’s not an unfathomable possibility.
Conclusion
Considering CeeDee Lamb has previously finished as the overall WR1, of course it’s entirely plausible he can do it once again in 2025. But the presence of George Pickens shouldn’t worry drafters. The offense is structured around Lamb and the passing game, providing plenty of positive game scripts for Lamb to produce a 28%+ target share. Couple the high target volume with a career catch percentage of 68.9%, and those targets will lead to 100+ catches.
The added bonus? Lamb averages over 11 rush attempts per season. The team wants to give him the football in any possible way they can.
Buy into The Year of the Lamb. Even if it’s not the Cowboys’ year. (Sorry, I am still an Eagles fan, after all.)
Looking for your favorite team? This link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Dallas Cowboys
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on CeeDee Lamb in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Cowboys from Josh Hudson.
Dak Prescott
Prescott’s ability to stay healthy has come under the microscope of late. But in his career, he averages 34 pass attempts per game. Couple that with the lack of talent in the running back room, and expect him to throw a ton in 2025. If he can approach 30 TD passes, he’s likely to be a low-end QB1 option in fantasy.
Javonte Williams
Williams is the best pass blocker of the RBs on the roster, which will give him a leg up in the competition for RB1. He hasn’t been the same RB since his knee injury, and he doesn’t break tackles the way he used to. But he’s still a capable pass catcher. He’ll begin the season as the starter, but could easily be replaced. That makes him a volatile option even at his current RB38 price tag.
Miles Sanders/Jaydon Blue
The good news for Jaydon Blue is that we all know who and what Miles Sanders is. Since he left Philadelphia, he’s been terrible, and his pass-catching skills have diminished. (I say this as an admitted Sanders fan.) Blue is a 5th-round pick, so he has an uphill battle. More good news? Those in front of him are not inspiring options. If he’s any good, he’ll have an opportunity, especially as a pass catcher.
Phil Mafah
A rookie 7th-round pick isn’t someone to really get excited for. But at 235 pounds, he can be the in-between-the-tackles bruiser this offense desperately needs. And since Williams rarely breaks tackles anymore, the end of the season could be interesting for this Cowboys offense.
George Pickens
If you’re drafting Tee Higgins at WR13, I would suggest you wait and get the discount Higgins at WR29 in the way of George Pickens. He has a clear path to a 1,000-yard campaign, and if he somehow learns to score TDs, he’s a top 15 WR. Pay for the floor, be grateful for the upside.
Jalen Tolbert
The acquisition of George Pickens nuked Tolbert’s fantasy potential in this offense. The good news? Tolbert scored more TDs last season than Pickens has scored in a season since high school. He could remain in that role, making him a better option in DFS formats against teams with weak red zone defenses.
KaVontae Turpin
If your league awards points for return yards, Turpin is a WR to target. Outside of that, he’s nothing more than a gadget player.
Jake Ferguson
Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has never been shy about targeting the TE position. The bad news? It’s usually only by necessity. Ferguson will be the clear third option in this passing offense, but I’d wager he’ll be calling over 600 passing plays. That will provide you and other fantasy managers with plenty of weeks to effectively stream Ferguson during the 2025 season.
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