The Carolina Panthers are coming off a season where they began to turn the ship in the right direction. After benching first overall pick Bryce Young after just two games, they managed to make it to a five-win season, which, unfortunately, was progress for them.
The Panthers’ season was good enough to give them hope for the future, but bad enough that they were able to draft the top receiving prospect of the 2025 NFL Draft. Tetairoa McMillan was many people’s top receiving pick in this year’s draft, depending on whether or not they graded Travis Hunter as a full-time receiver.
That was enough to get McMillan drafted as the eighth overall pick in what was admittedly a weak receiver class. Regardless, the pedigree speaks volumes.
But, we are left with a question fantasy managers ask themselves every season. When do I draft the top-drafted rookie receiver?
Tetairoa McMillan 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
A Look Behind
There are several ways to assess McMillan’s potential, including revisiting the recent history of the first receivers drafted in the NFL Draft. During the past five seasons, the first receivers drafted were Marvin Harrison (4th overall pick), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20th), Drake London (8th), Ja’Marr Chase (5th), and Henry Ruggs (12th). Of those, only one finished the season as the top fantasy rookie receiver.
A 20% hit rate is not exactly what we aim for in fantasy. And I know this is a bit of a downer take, but it is worth remembering that being the first receiver off the board is not always a recipe for success. Fortunately, there are other ways to assess McMillan’s first-year potential.
McMillan’s Skillset
McMillan was the clear number one receiver for Arizona during his final college season. He led the team with an astonishing 130 targets, bringing in over 1,300 yards and nearly three yards per route run. Given that everyone on the field knew exactly who the ball was going to, that is a very impressive stat line.
But how did he do it? Now, if you have been watching our weekly mock draft show, Mock It Like It’s Hot, you will already know that I have been on quite the journey with McMillan. At first, I was very down on him because of what I identified as an inability to separate.
And I stand by that take, in one sense. McMillan is not the type of receiver who is going to be a route-running merchant and get open with fancy footwork. His college tape reveals as much.
However, it is easy to forget that he is six feet and five inches tall and has a solid wingspan. His height and length are what enable him to separate. When I re-watched his tape with that perspective in mind, I became much more interested in his upside.
But, he is still on one of the worst offenses in the league. Even if Carolina takes a step forward this season, can McMillan immediately become a top-end receiver?
We broke down the Panthers on our latest episode!
Will McMillan Finish in the Top 20?
Current ADP on Underdog Fantasy has McMillan as WR21 overall, just ahead of Xavier Worthy, D.J. Moore, Jameson Williams, and D.K. Metcalf. That is pretty wild considering the upside we have seen from all four of those receivers. Even more surprisingly, he is being drafted ahead of DeVonta Smith.
I am not convinced he will finish ahead of all of those receivers on a half-PPR site like Underdog. For that to happen, the Panthers need to take a meaningful step forward, especially in terms of scoring. In 2024, Carolina ranked 23rd in points scored on offense. For half-PPR formats, touchdowns are key, and the Panthers are not a reliable source of consistent scoring.
However, there are those full-PPR formats where McMillan becomes much more interesting. He is already used to being the dominant target, and given the Panthers’ receiving room, he is poised to step right into that role.
Bryce Young did most of his damage over the middle of the field, particularly on short and intermediate throws, which comprised approximately 27% of his throws last season. What does that have to do with Tetairoa McMillan, you ask?
Well, 43% of McMillan’s targets in 2024 were over the middle of the field on short and intermediate passes. So, one in four times Bryce Young threw the football last year, it was to the part of the field where McMillan was most heavily utilized.
Because of this, McMillan is a great option in PPR formats. Interestingly, he is currently WR24 on DraftKings, three spots lower than on Underdog despite having more PPR potential. With that in mind, I will likely draft very little of McMillan on Underdog, unless I am specifically drafting a Carolina Panthers stack.
But on DraftKings and other PPR formats, McMillan is a great option, particularly if you can draft him as your WR3 or if you are taking the Joe Zollo approach of drafting and starting with three running backs.
The series is just getting started, but this link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the Carolina Panthers
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on Tetairoa McMillan in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Panthers from Ryan Weisse.
Bryce Young
I am an unabashed fan of Bryce Young and welcome all newcomers onto the bandwagon. He threw at least one TD in the last 10 games to end 2024, and scored two or more TDs in six of those games. In that span, he was the QB12 in fantasy. Another year in Dave Canales’ system, and a new number-one receiver, should give us another step forward for Young. He’s a sleeper, but worth a spot as your QB2 to start the season.
Chuba Hubbard
We knew Jonathan Brooks wasn’t going to be healthy to start the 2024 season. What we didn’t know is that Chuba Hubbard was going to make Brooks a luxury, not a necessity. Hubbard had by far the best season of his career, turning 1195 yards and 11 total TDs into an RB15 finish. With Brooks sidelined for the entire 2025 season, Hubbard should again command a lead-back workload for the Panthers. He feels safe as a top-20 running back.
Rico Dowdle
Dowdle was the best back in Dallas last season and finished as the 23rd-best back in fantasy. It was a little surprising to see him end up in Carolina, where he’ll siphon work from fellow waiver-wire darling Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard is still going to be the lead back, but Dowdle will see enough work to be annoying. Dowdle won’t finish in the Top 30 again, but a Top 40 finish seems plausible.
Xavier Legette
Lost in the hype of drafting Tetairoa McMillan is that the team also has another first-round wide receiver, 2024’s Xavier Legette. Legette has a different skill set than McMillan, and they should complement each other nicely. Canales’ system gave us good Mike Evans and Chris Godwin together, and this could be a version of that. McMillan fits the role of Evans, so Legette would fill the Godwin role. Legette and Godwin win in different ways, but there should be enough volume heading his way to keep Xavier Legette interesting in fantasy football.
Adam Thielen
Thielen has been Young’s favorite target since the QB entered the league, so he is unlikely to just go away. However, at 34 years old, he certainly isn’t gaining any steps. Like Dowdle, Thielen will do enough to annoy fantasy managers about the volume he’s stealing from McMillan and Legette, but hardly enough to be relevant in a deep fantasy receiver pool.
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Tight ends take time to develop in the NFL, and Sanders is no exception. We saw some good from him last year, but the addition of McMillan pours a little water on his second-year growth. Sanders is a streaming option at best, but could even lose snaps to new rookie TE Mitchell Evans.
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