I get it. If a running back is 28 or older, they won’t be getting the benefit of the doubt from you. They’re washed in the eyes of fantasy football managers, and no amount of positive press will change their minds.
Well, last year, a 30-year-old running back rushed for 1,921 yards. Three other running backs, 28 years and older, exceeded 1,000 yards in a season. In fact, four of the top-11 RBs in total yards from scrimmage last year were 29 years or older.
One of those RBs was Alvin Kamara. He’s finished in the top 6 in fantasy points per game in four of the last five seasons. So PLEASE, someone explain to me… WHY IS ALVIN KAMARA CURRENTLY BEING DRAFTED AS THE RB20?! Allow me to try and fix his ADP this summer in 1,000 words or less.
Alvin Kamara 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
A Tale of Two Careers
For much of Alvin Kamara’s career, he’s been viewed as a strong complementary back instead of an elite workhorse. Over the first four years of his career, that certainly seemed to be the case. He shared a backfield with Mark Ingram, then Latavius Murray, and was incredibly efficient, averaging 4.97 yards per carry and totaling 58 TDs. Kamara also led all RBs in targets and receptions from 2017 to 2020.
From 2021 to 2024, the efficiency went downhill. The Saints decided to use him more as their “lead” back, and he averaged 15.8 rush attempts per game. His yards per carry dropped to 3.95, and he totaled only 27 TDs. Every attempt to find him a reliable running mate fell flat, and their offensive line lacked consistency.
Despite the drop in efficiency, Kamara maintained his elite fantasy production. He’s finished 6th, T-13th, 3rd, and 5th in PPG over the last four seasons, and is 2nd among RBs in targets and receptions since 2021.
With production like that, why isn’t Kamara considered among the position’s elite for fantasy football managers?
Missed Games
Aside from being an efficient complement, then an inefficient “workhorse,” Kamara hasn’t played a full slate of games since his rookie season. He’s missed 17 games over the last seven seasons, just over two games per season. Which, honestly, is pretty damn good for a running back. He’s never suffered a serious injury, forcing him to miss significant chunks of the season.
And when comparing him to other RBs since 2017, he’s played more games than Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Kareem Hunt, and Dalvin Cook. He’s also averaged more games per season than Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb.
So, it can’t be because he’s not a healthy running back. And it’s not because he’s not a productive back. I know! It’s his team… right?
Don’t miss our Saints team preview over on YouTube
New Coach, Who Dis?
The Saints have been an average yet competitive team ever since Sean Payton “retired.” They’re older and clearly on the decline. After firing head coach Dennis Allen during the 2024 season, the team hired Kellen Moore, the offensive coordinator of the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles, to replace him. Derek Carr, the team’s starting QB the last two seasons, retired this offseason. They then spent the 40th overall pick in the NFL Draft on 25-year-old QB Tyler Shough.
A new coach, a new QB, an old team — what kind of upside is there for a running back who will be 30 when the season starts?
Let’s start with the new offensive scheme. Some might point to Kellen Moore’s time in Philadelphia and think Alvin Kamara will have opportunities similar to what Saquon Barkley had. You can throw that right out the window. What we should do is look at Moore’s time as the OC in Dallas and his lone season with the Chargers.
From 2019 to 2023, only once in five seasons did Kellen Moore call fewer than 37 pass attempts per game. Only once did one of Moore’s RBs have less than a 10% target share (and they had 9.89% target share that season). Over those five seasons, Moore’s offenses averaged 27.88 rush attempts per game.
No one really knows what kind of production will come from their inexperienced QB room. And while Kellen Moore loves to dial up pass plays, he’s always been an RB-friendly play caller.
So again, I say — WHAT THE HELL AM I MISSING?!
2025 Expectations
Kamara averages 6.33 targets per game over his career. That’s 89 targets if he plays 14 games. He’s averaged 15.8 rush attempts per game the last four years. That’s 221 if he plays 14 games. And if Kendre Miller or 6th-round rookie Devin Neal prove they can handle carries, maybe Kamara has fewer carries and regains some of his efficiency.
The Saints spent their 2025 first-round pick on Texas OT Kelvin Banks. He’ll look to team up with last year’s first-round pick, Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga, to offer protection and running lanes.
Kamara is likely to be, at worst, 2nd on the team in targets. He’ll lead the team in rushing attempts. He should total at least seven TDs. With top-6 finishes in PPG in three of the last four seasons, there’s no reason to think Alvin Kamara won’t be a top-12 RB in 2025. As my RB12 on the season, I’ll be scooping him up in so many drafts at RB20 prices in the 6th round.
If all this didn’t convince you that you should be drafting Alvin Kamara, I guess you just don’t like winning.
The series is just getting started, but this link will take you to the rest of our 2025 Look Inside team previews.
A Look Inside the New Orleans Saints
Editor’s Note: While the main article focuses on Alvin Kamara in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Saints from Ryan Weisse.
Tyler Shough
The Saints drafted Shough in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft as the 3rd QB off the board. He’s an older rookie who has dealt with multiple injuries in college, but he is still likely better than Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener. No Saints QB should be on your radar outside of two-QB leagues, but if Shough wins the job, it will be better for the Saints’ pass catchers.
Kendre Miller / Devin Neal
There is probably a decent role behind Kamara, but who will win it? Miller has been a disappointment thus far in his career, missing time with injuries, and his play hasn’t been great when healthy. Neal was pretty well regarded among this RB class, but he fell to the 6th Round, so clearly the league doesn’t like him that much. More than likely, these two will split the 150 carries or so that don’t go to Kamar. That makes both rather boring in fantasy.
Chris Olave
Olave has been damn good in the NFL, racking up over 1000 yards and at least four TDs in each of his first two seasons. Unfortunately, he’s also racked up multiple concussions. It was so bad that there was a point where it felt like his career was in jeopardy last season. It appears he’ll be back healthy for 2025. As long as the Saints’ QBs quit throwing hospital balls, he’s probably a top-20 wide receiver in fantasy. His upside is limited because the Saints won’t be good, but his draft cost is also down due to injury risk.
Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed was on fire before his injury last season. In the first five games, he recorded 19 receptions for 338 yards and three TDs, and that includes a zero in Week 4. He is a big-play threat who can score every time he touches the ball. Again, the Saints won’t be great, and there are questions at QB, but Shaheed showed enough last year to make him worth a late-round flyer.
Juwan Johnson
Johnson might be the biggest beneficiary of Kellen Moore coming to town. Moore’s offense is very TE-friendly. Johnson has shown flashes throughout his career, but has never been a consistent fantasy producer. I doubt that changes this season, but there will be enough volume heading his way to make him a solid streaming option most weeks.
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