It’s a new era for Jacksonville Jaguars football. They have a new head coach in town with Liam Coen and a new general manager in James Gladstone. Both engineered an exciting blockbuster draft trade for Travis Hunter. They have made it all but clear that the Jaguars of old are not the Jaguars of now. But with all this change, there’s no new face at football’s most important position. Trevor Lawrence still leads Jacksonville as their starting QB, but even he may be changing for the better along with the new regime. Here’s what fantasy managers should know.
Trevor Lawrence 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Why You Want Him
It’s easy to forget the troubling situations Lawrence has found himself in since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2021.
From a borderline abusive Urban Meyer to an outmatched Doug Pederson, with multiple changes at offensive coordinator, the Jaguars have done as much to impede Lawrence as they’ve done to help him. But regardless of the past, the future is where his fantasy production will stand out.
Coen’s history working with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay has been well documented. He helped Tampa Bay flip its rushing attack from 32nd in yards and 28th in touchdowns in 2023 to 4th and 14th in 2024. That significantly helped Mayfield, who threw for career-highs in yards (4500) and touchdowns (41), despite losing Chris Godwin to injury halfway through the season, as the Bucs went on to win the division.
Coen enters a very similar situation in Jacksonville — the weapons are good in Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter, not to mention what Dyami Brown could bring as a deep threat. But the rushing attack was poor in 2024, finishing 26th in yards and 20th in touchdowns.
Fixing Lawrence begins with fixing the running game. Coen’s history should provide comfort that he can do just that and open up Lawrence’s ability to stretch the field to Thomas, Hunter, and Brown — three players who have done just that their entire career. The offensive line is also better, but remains a variable instead of a proven product.
The Jaguars converted just 37.3% of their third downs in 2024 — 22nd in the league — significantly worse than Coen’s league-best 51.1% with Tampa Bay. Fixing the rushing attack leads to more manageable third downs, which leads to more first downs, which leads to more scoring and overall plays for Lawrence.
Lawrence comes at a low ADP, currently at 122nd overall in the 10th round as the QB16, per FantasyPros. That’s thanks to him averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game last year, a pitiful number, especially if compared to Mayfield’s 22.5.
Make no mistake: Mayfield is a better quarterback than Lawrence. But Lawrence has every opportunity to seize 2025 as a career year. Thanks to his extension and the massive trade-up for Hunter, it’s clear this regime is determined to make Lawrence into what everyone thought he would be.
He’s still only 25 years old. Assuming his shoulder injury that derailed his 2024 season is in the past, let Lawrence take the next step forward with the right person to take him there in Coen.
Why You Don’t Want Him
There’s no sugarcoating how turnover-happy Lawrence has been throughout his career. The Jaguars haven’t helped Lawrence, but he hasn’t exactly helped himself, either.
No player has more turnovers since 2021 than Lawrence, who leads the league with 68 despite only playing nine full games in 2024. His ability under pressure is better than advertised, but simultaneously, Lawrence has been under pressure far too often.
The Jaguars did add center Robert Hainsey and RG Patrick Mekari, and they boast solid bookend tackles in Anton Harrison and Walker Little. No piece is perfect, but there’s reason for optimism.
But no matter how you slice it, nine turnovers in 10 games just isn’t good enough. Lawrence has thrown too many uncatchable balls and killed too many possessions. His 85.2 passer rating is in line with Cooper Rush, Aidan O’Connell, and Dak Prescott off a down year.
The hope remains with Coen, and a revitalized Jaguars offense with new faces can jumpstart Lawrence’s career.
Josh, Joe, and Ryan break down the Jags in our latest video!
What Should You Do with Trevor Lawrence in Fantasy?
The case for Lawrence revolves around his cost. In the ninth and 10th rounds, he’s well worth a shot given the changes made around him and the confidence this regime has in him.
The defense is still poor, setting up positive game scripts. Also, Lawrence should improve throwing to Travis Hunter instead of Christian Kirk or Gabe Davis. If Jacksonville can get value out of its running game or new starting TE Brenton Strange, Lawrence could be in for a big season.
In a winnable division with pedigree and talent around him, Lawrence could return to QB1 status at QB2 cost. Take a shot on Trevor “Goldilocks” Lawrence finally living up to his potential.
We just started this series last week, but this link will take you to our other 2025 Look Inside previews.
A Look Inside the Jacksonville Jaguars
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on Trevor Lawrence in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Jaguars from Ryan Weisse.
Travis Etienne
If we’re comparing roles in Coen’s offense from his time in Tampa Bay, Etienne should thrive as the pass-catching back. Last year, in this scheme, Rachaad White was the RB22 and finished with 51 receptions, 393 yards, and six TDs. White did all that while ceding a lot of work to Bucky Irving. Even if Etienne loses snaps to some combination of Tank Bigsby and Bhayshul Tuten, he could still be a great value in fantasy.
Tank Bigsby
If Etienne is Rachaad White, Bigsby will get first crack at the Bucky Irving role. That role resulted in over 200 carries last season and eight touchdowns. Bigsby was far more efficient than Etienne in 2024, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and scored seven TDs. If he can keep that up and handle the volume, he could be a Top 30 back in fantasy. His non-existent role in the passing game will stop him from reaching the same heights as Irving did last season.
Bhayshul Tuten
Tuten has the skillset to replace either Etienne or Bigsby. He is blazing fast, runs the ball well, and can catch out of the backfield. There were some consistency and fumbling issues in college. My guess is that those concerns will keep him third on the depth chart as a rookie. He will siphon some volume, most likely all the passing work that could have gone to Bigsby. But, without an injury to Bigsby or Etienne, Tuten likely falls outside the Top 50 in 2025.
Brian Thomas
Thomas was already borderline elite as a rookie, and all arrows are pointing up for Year 2 in this new offensive scheme. While some view Travis Hunter as competition, the fact that defenses won’t solely be able to focus on Thomas should do more good than harm. This passing scheme has proven it can support two WRs going back to Coen’s days with the Rams. Thomas will be the WR1 and will likely be a top-10 play in fantasy yet again.
Travis Hunter
Hunter is a unicorn. Anybody who tells you they know what he will do as a rookie is a liar. We’ve not seen a true two-way player since Deion Sanders, and all reports are that Hunter will play A LOT more offense than Sanders ever did. Still, I am projecting Hunter around WR40, which is far below other fantasy analysts. Again, none of us know how he will be used until the games start, but I believe this team will lean heavily on Brian Thomas.
HOWEVER, there is one UNDENIABLE FACT: If your league incorporates any IDP scoring, Hunter is a top-10 WR and a top-1 DB. When I found a way to work IDP stats in my model, Hunter went from WR38 to WR2 overall. And I gave him numbers resembling the 50th-ranked DB in fantasy. If he is truly elite in his rookie season, Hunter might be the most valuable asset in IDP fantasy football. Think Shohei Ohtani.
Brenton Strange
With Evan Engram gone, a lot of fantasy managers are high on Brenton Strange. I think that trust is misplaced. In Coen’s offense, the tight end is only fantasy-relevant when they are short on wide receivers. With the likes of Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, plus the great pass-catching RBs, Strange may struggle most weeks. He will be an excellent streaming candidate, especially when a receiver is hurt, but don’t expect a breakout.
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