As we get deeper into the playoffs, DFS Cash contests become more challenging. The high variance in these slates makes it harder to rely on median outcomes. As such, I will start focusing on more tournament-oriented picks beginning this week. With so few games on the slate, we can take advantage of that high variance to win DFS tournaments. Let’s get into our Divisional Round NFL DFS picks.
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Divisional Round NFL DFS
Teacher’s Pet
Lamar Jackson (DraftKings: $7,800 / FanDuel: $8,700)
I expect Jayden Daniels to be the highest-rostered quarterback this weekend. Daniels is the cheapest among the top three dual-threat quarterbacks, making it easier to build a lineup. As such, I want to build some lineups where I have Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, leaning into a strategy that many will find uncomfortable. I slightly prefer Jackson because the defensive matchup is more favorable for him than for Allen. Since Week 14, Buffalo has allowed just over 23 DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Over the same span, Baltimore has allowed just 13. Expect Jackson to roll against the Buffalo defense.
Note: We did break down all four games from a Showdown standpoint on our YouTube channel! Check them out now!
Honor Roll
Saquon Barkley (DraftKings: $8,200 / FanDuel: $9,300)
While Saquon Barkley is unlikely to repeat his 255-yard outing from the last time he played the Rams, he is still a solid play this week. If I am only playing one small-field contest, I’m starting Barkley. That said, the Rams have become a much tougher run defense since they last played the Eagles. With that in mind, it could be advantageous to fade Barkley in a couple of lineups and bet instead on the Eagles’ passing game. By doing so, you will gain leverage on the field, putting yourself in a position to shoot up the board.
DeVonta Smith (DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $7,300)
Playing DeVonta Smith is partially a game theory strategy and partially a salary consideration. Admittedly, he was the last player I dropped into my lineup. Around him in salary are players like Cooper Kupp, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, and DeAndre Hopkins. I could make a case for playing Worthy and Shakir, but Smith has the most consistent floor and upside of all of these receivers. Now, I could also see dropping down to Hollywood Brown and leaving some salary on the table, which would be a way to get different this week. With fewer games on the slate, leaving salary on the table matters less and is a way to immediately get different, as most players will want to max out their salary.
Mark Andrews (DraftKings: $4,500 / FanDuel: $5,900)
If I am betting on Lamar Jackson, you can bet that I will be stacking him with at least one of his pass catchers. Mark Andrews has returned to the Mark Andrews we all know and love. Before a down performance last week, he was riding a six-week streak of double-digit fantasy performances. And let’s be honest, Baltimore didn’t exactly need Andrews to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. Andrews is a sure thing for any Lamar Jackson build.
Check the Chalkboard
Jahmyr Gibbs (DraftKings: $7,700 / FanDuel: $8,900)
The only player that might push Jahmyr Gibbs for rostership this week is Saquon Barkley. Gibbs is in an incredible spot against the Washington Commanders. Let’s start with the fact that Detroit has a 32-point implied team total, which is the highest mark of any team this season. While I think the Commanders keep it competitive, Gibbs continues to be the lead running back in a high-power offense that is expected to win by more than a touchdown. That is a recipe for fantasy success and the reason you should feel confident eating the chalk with Gibbs.
Participation Grade
Tim Patrick (DraftKings: $3,700 / FanDuel: $5,200)
If you have been building a lineup while reading this article, you are probably noticing that we are quickly running out of salary. This is part of the strategy I will use in at least one of my lineups this week. I suspect people will want to try and save at quarterback and with one of their running backs because, otherwise, the receiver options are uncomfortable. I want to lean into what feels uncomfortable to gain access to the upside that the rest of the field will avoid. With that in mind, I am looking for Tim Patrick to get me a few catches and a touchdown to pay off his cheap salary. Patrick continues to maintain an important role in this offense and has a good matchup against a mid Washington Commanders defense.
Back of the Classroom Studs
Rashod Bateman (DraftKings: $4,900 / FanDuel: $6,200)
Yes, I am interested in stacking two Baltimore Ravens pass-catchers with Lamar Jackson. The idea here is simple. Among the remaining playoff teams, the Bills have allowed the most points per game to wide receivers and the third most to tight ends since Week 14. Their secondary has been easy to pick apart, and Jackson has been in his bag as a thrower. Rashod Bateman is now the number-one receiver without Zay Flowers in the lineup. Bateman has thrived in this offense and should continue to do so against the Bills.
John Metchie III (DraftKings: $3,800 / FanDuel: $5,600)
When watching the Houston Texans during Wild Card Weekend, I couldn’t help but notice how much John Metchie was on the field. He is clearly one of the starting receivers in three-receiver sets, which is crucial for his usage. He ended with eight targets last week, and Houston will need to rely on him as an alternative to Nico Collins again against the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs (DraftKings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $4,500)
Defense is likely going to be the hardest position to work out this week. Kansas City is likely to be the chalk defense, given the struggles the Houston Texans offense has faced this season. And, even though they are chalky, it is worth playing them to provide a safe floor. The most interesting contrarian defense this weekend is the Baltimore Ravens. It has been a while since we have seen messy Josh Allen. He has cleaned up his game overall, but in a single-game sample size where we are betting on outlier performances, betting on multiple Josh Allen interceptions is an easy path to getting different.
Report Card
DraftKings
Scoring System
- A: Scored over three times their price
- B: Scored over two times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
| Player | Price | Points | Grade |
| Bijan Robinson | $8,500 | 34.30 | A |
| Jayden Daniels | $7,800 | 4.22 | F |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | $7,300 | 20.30 | B |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $5,200 | 13.20 | B |
| Blake Corum | $5,600 | 3.20 | F |
| Noah Gray | $3,800 | 0.70 | F |
| Demario Douglas | $4,300 | 6.40 | C |
| Michael Carter | $4,700 | 15.90 | A |
| New York Giants | $2,400 | 3.00 | C |
| Overall | $49,600 | 101.22 | B |
| Season Long | $842,900 | 2,051.20 | B |
FanDuel
Scoring System
- A: Scored over two times their price
- B: Scored over one and a half times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
| Player | Price | Points | Grade |
| Bijan Robinson | $9,200 | 33.30 | A |
| Jayden Daniels | $8,700 | 4.22 | F |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | $8,000 | 16.80 | A |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $6,200 | 10.20 | B |
| Blake Corum | $5,500 | 2.70 | F |
| Noah Gray | $5,500 | 0.20 | F |
| Demario Douglas | $5,100 | 4.90 | F |
| Michael Carter | $5,800 | 13.90 | A |
| New York Giants | $3,200 | 3.00 | F |
| Overall | $57,200 | 89.22 | B |
| Season Long | $1,003,700 | 1,809.20 | B |
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