The A List at DFS Academy | NFL DFS Week 4

For some silly reason, how to manage a $50 bankroll became a topic of conversation in NFL DFS this week. So I figured, what better way to spend this opening segment of Week 4 than by discussing my typical process for my weekly bankroll? For the purposes of this discussion, I will talk in percentages because that is useful regardless of how much money you are spending on any given week.

As always, set a budget that feels good to you. Make sure you’re willing to lose every single penny of it because some weeks will be like that regardless of how good of a process we have.

When thinking about my DFS bankroll, I regularly put 80% of my budget towards Cash games (hence the reason I focus on Cash games in this article). Of those Cash games, I will enter one double-up (usually the $25 entry on DraftKings) and then fill the rest of that 80% allocation with head-to-heads. The remaining 20% goes to tournaments. I divvy that portion up based on how confident I am feeling in any given lineup.

The primary rationale here is that I expect to be positive in Cash games over the course of the season. If I am successful, this means I can break even on the season even if I lose every tournament contest. Additionally, it increases my confidence in being bold in tournament contests, which is important for success.

I recommend this approach if your goal is to make money. If you’re just looking to have fun, just join your favorite contests. There’s no wrong way, so long as you are being responsible and enjoying the process.

Now, let’s get into Week 4 NFL DFS. 

Cash is in session.

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NFL DFS Week 4

Teacher’s Pet

Kyler Murray (DraftKings: $6,800 / FanDuel: $8,700)

While the big takeaway from Monday Night Football was that Jayden Daniels played a special game, let’s not forget that Washington allowed 33 points on defense. During that game, Joe Burrow scored 28.4 DraftKings points while only rushing for four yards. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has averaged over 50 rushing yards per game this season. Despite a mediocre fantasy performance in Week 3, I’m willing to start Murray again, given his relatively low salary and safe floor. 

Honor Roll

Brian Robinson (DraftKings: $6,100 / FanDuel: $7,300)

There are plenty of options at the running back position this week. The most important decision is whether to pay up or save money at the position. If you are looking to save money, start Brian Robinson. He has been the consistent number-one running back in Washington based on touches. This week, Austin Ekeler will be out with a concussion, and there is limited competition behind Robinson. As such, he has the potential to touch the ball 20 times this week. That makes him a steal at his price point, especially because of the wide receivers he allows you to play.

Chris Godwin (DraftKings: $6,800 / FanDuel: $7,300)

Speaking of wide receivers, Chris Godwin continues to be undervalued by the DFS sites. He has at least eight targets in every game this year and has had a nose for the endzone so far. While his touchdown production is unlikely to be sustained, his volume is hard to argue with, particularly against an Eagles defense that struggles against the slot. Until Godwin is priced over $7,000 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel, he will be an easy lineup decision week over week.

Diontae Johnson (DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $6,200)

This is the moment where I remind everyone to check the injury report before the games begin on Sunday. Diontae Johnson was a limited participant in Friday’s practice, which is trending in a positive direction, given that he did not practice on Thursday. Assuming he suits up on Sunday, Johnson is an easy lineup lock with Andy Dalton under center. We just watched the Cincinnati Bengals struggle to get pressure on Washington, demonstrating the weakness of their pass rush. If Dalton has time under center, he will get the ball to Johnson, who is coming off a season-high 14 targets.

Check the Chalkboard

Saquon Barkley (DraftKings: $8,000 / FanDuel: $9,700)

It takes fairly little analysis to say that you should play Saquon Barkley. He currently holds the RB1 spot, just ahead of Alvin Kamara, who had a 47-point game. The RB3 is a full 27 points behind Barkley, and it’s only Week 3. DeVonta Smith is officially out, and A.J. Brown could miss this game as well. Even if Brown plays, Barkley is likely to get at least 20 touches. Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth most points to running backs this season, and there’s no reason to expect that to change this week. 

Participation Grade

Pat Freiermuth (DraftKings: $3,900 / FanDuel: $5,000)

The Steelers starting tight end has quietly been one of the most consistent tight ends in the fantasy season. The key word here is “consistent,” not “best.” Pat Freiermuth has brought in four catches every game this season. Not “at least” four. Exactly four. It’s honestly quite the feat when you think about it. He is the TE12 through three weeks without scoring a touchdown. His price decreased after last week. And lastly, he plays the Colts, who have allowed the fourth-most points to tight ends this year. Until he stops catching four passes per game, I’ll continue starting him. 

Back of the Classroom Studs

Rome Odunze (DraftKings: $5,200 / FanDuel: $6,400)

This was a much better idea before Keenan Allen started trending towards starting. However, I am still in on Rome Odunze this week, who is coming off an 11-target game. In just his third NFL game, Odunze demonstrated why he was worth a top draft pick, bringing in over 100 yards and a touchdown. While that will likely tame itself with the return of Allen, Odunze has continued to build trust with Caleb Williams, which I expect to continue into Week 4. Plus, the Bears apparently have zero run plays in their playbook, so the volume should continue to be there.

Demario Douglas (DraftKings: $4,500 / FanDuel: $5,100)

If you have been inserting players in your lineup while reading this article, you will notice we are quickly running out of salary space. So, we need to punt at the flex position. When looking for punt plays, I am always going to chase volume. One of the overlooked aspects of New England’s Thursday night loss was the usage of Demario Douglas. He seemed to return to the form of play that stole fantasy hearts and minds in 2023, bringing in seven catches on nine targets. If that repeats itself in Week 4, he will easily pay off his sub-$5,000 salary. Plus, if Saquon Barkley scores 30 points, Douglas becomes worth it regardless. 

Houston Texans (DraftKings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $4,100)

The Houston Texans take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in what amounts to a bounce-back opportunity for Houston. After getting steamrolled by the Vikings, Houston will look to take advantage of a fledgling Jaguars offense. Jacksonville has been middle of the road in terms of pressure rate allowed overall and bottom-12 against the blitz, per NextGen Stats. Additionally, when they faced elite edge talent, they gave up five sacks. With Will Anderson on the other side of the ball, I expect Houston to get after it in a get-right game. 

Report Card

DraftKings

Scoring System

• A: Scored over three times their price
• B: Scored over two times their price
• C: Matched their price
• F: Scored lower than their price

Player	Price	Points	Grade
Chris Godwin	$6,500	17.30	B
Kyler Murray	$6,900	15.78	B
Jerome Ford	$5,800	10.00	C
Amon-Ra St. Brown	$8,200	20.50	B
Jordan Mason	$4,100	10.80	B
Jauan Jennings	$4,100	49.50	A
Pat Freiermuth	$4,000	7.30	C
Diontae Johnson	$4,900	29.20	A
Green Bay Packers	$3,300	21.00	A
Overall	$47,800	181.38	A
Season Long	$147,200	365.52	B

FanDuel

Scoring System

• A: Scored over two times their price
• B: Scored over one and a half times their price
• C: Matched their price
• F: Scored lower than their price

Player	Price	Points	Grade
Chris Godwin	$6,600	14.30	B
Kyler Murray	$8,300	15.78	C
Jerome Ford	$6,500	8.50	C
Amon-Ra St. Brown	$9,100	17.00	C
Jordan Mason	$8,300	9.80	C
Jauan Jennings	$5,200	44.00	A
Pat Freiermuth	$5,200	5.30	C
Diontae Johnson	$5,300	25.20	A
Green Bay Packers	$4,000	21.00	A
Overall	$58,500	160.88	B
Season Long	$171,000	324.52	B

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