Fantasy Trade Value: Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara just delivered an absolute monster performance on Sunday. He rushed 20 times for 115 yards and three touchdowns while adding two catches for 65 yards and another score in the Saints’ dominant 44-19 win over the Cowboys. With 180 total yards and four touchdowns, it’s the kind of game that can win fantasy matchups single-handedly. On the surface, Kamara seems unstoppable. However, if you’re a savvy fantasy football manager, now may be the perfect time to sell high.

Fantasy Trade Value: Alvin Kamara

Kamara is now 29 years old, which is a critical number for running backs in fantasy football. Historically, running backs tend to experience decline as they near 30, with wear and tear becoming more of an issue. Kamara’s massive performance is fresh in everyone’s mind, and you can capitalize on that by trading him at peak value. If someone in your league is willing to pay top dollar for a player nearing the age cliff, you should be ready to listen to offers.

You likely drafted Kamara at a discount due to his age and concerns about a declining Saints offense. With this breakout game, that discount is erased. You can now flip Kamara for a younger asset or a combination of players who provide long-term stability.

A Hot Start

While Kamara’s stat line in Week 2 was jaw-dropping, it’s important to note that he played just over 62% of the Saints’ snaps, a slight bump from the 51.5% he saw in Week 1. Those numbers are concerning for a running back being leaned on to produce elite fantasy numbers weekly. Kamara has always thrived in a shared workload, but the efficiency from him and the Saints’ offense as a whole has been otherworldly so far. Regression is inevitable.

Through two weeks, New Orleans has outscored its opponents 91-29. No team can sustain this level of dominance, and once games get tighter, Kamara’s volume could become an issue. This kind of unsustainable efficiency makes him more of a sell candidate now before the inevitable regression kicks in.

 Circumstances Can Change

Kamara isn’t alone in the Saints’ backfield, and his role could diminish further as the season progresses. Jamaal Williams, signed this offseason, is a proven touchdown vulture, and while he didn’t factor much into Week 2, his presence still looms. The more significant concern is Kendre Miller, the Saints’ 2023 third-round draft pick. Miller has been sidelined with a hamstring injury but is expected to come off IR soon. Once Miller is healthy, he could carve out a role, potentially reducing Kamara’s workload even more.

As we’ve seen in the past, running backs can lose valuable touches in committee situations, especially when young, explosive backs are added to the mix. Miller’s return will likely cut into Kamara’s receiving work and goal-line opportunities, which are key to his fantasy value.

From The Top, You Can Only Go One Way

Fantasy football is all about timing, and selling a player at peak value can transform your roster. Kamara’s Week 2 performance will have fantasy managers buzzing. However, there’s reason to believe this could be the highest point of his season. If someone in your league is willing to overpay for a 29-year-old running back based on this incredible outing, let them.

You can likely get a top-tier wide receiver, a younger running back, or a combination of players who can provide long-term value while you move off Kamara before his production slows. Remember, selling a player after a massive game doesn’t mean you doubt their talent. It means you’re capitalizing on market value.

Conclusion

Alvin Kamara’s Week 2 performance was nothing short of remarkable, but smart fantasy managers know when to sell high. With age, potential competition in the backfield, and New Orleans’ unsustainable efficiency, now is the perfect time to move on from Kamara. His stock will never be higher. You can cash in on the hype while ensuring long-term success for your fantasy team.

See where Kamara falls in Club Fantasy’s Week 3 fantasy football rankings

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