It was an excellent rookie campaign for Jahmyr Gibbs. He finished with 945 rushing yards and ten rushing TDs, adding another 52 catches, 316 yards, and a score in the passing game. That was good enough for an RB10 finish in fantasy football during Gibbs’ first campaign in the NFL. As we look to 2024, when you consider his talent and the potency of this Detroit Lions offense, there is an outside shot that Jahmyr Gibbs will be the best running back in fantasy football. Let me tell you how.
Jahmyr Gibbs 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
The Carries
Last season, Gibbs carried the ball 182 times. That equated to about 37% of the Lions total carries. David Montgomery led the team with 219 carries. With Montgomery returning to the same role in 2024, it’s easy to think that Gibbs’ carries will remain the same, but there is room for growth.
Last year, Jared Goff carried the ball 32 times. This is abnormal. During his previous two seasons, he averaged just 23 carries per game. As he gets older, we should see him run less. Back in 2021, he only averaged about one carry per game, so let’s throw 15 carries back into the pool. Speaking of getting older, David Montgomery is turning 27 this season. That’s by no means ancient, but the running back breakdown starts about now. With Gibbs’ fresh legs, let’s say they want to lower Monty’s workload from 219 to 200 even. Seems reasonable and ups the total carries that Gibbs could claim to 34.
Behind Montgomery and Gibbs is a subpar cast of characters led by Craig Reynolds and a virtually unknown rookie named Sione Vaki. The deep backups handled 48 carries last year, mainly due to injuries to Gibbs and Montgomery. We’re painting a perfect scenario here, so let’s steal four of those to get Gibbs to 40 added carries. That would put Jahmyr Gibbs at 222 carries in 2024. Maybe a bit high, but Montgomery was at 219 in 14 games last year. If Gibbs is the true lead back, the volume lines up. He hit 5.2 yards per carry last year, but we’ll bump that down to 4.9 to account for more volume, and Gibbs now has 1088 rushing yards, a 143-yard improvement to 2023. We’re off to a good start.
The Catches
In any format, a catch, even just a target, is more valuable than a carry. I wrote about this a few years ago for Footballguys, and I recently re-checked the math, and it still holds true. This is where Gibbs will make a killing. Last year, he was targeted 71 times or just under five times per game.
Two things will happen that I think will increase this volume in 2024. First of all, I think the Lions will throw more. They had 606 attempts last year and have a very favorable schedule in 2024. They play 14 of their 17 games indoors, where Jared Goff plays his best. If we give them one more target per game, putting them at 623 for the season, Gibbs will see an increase. The other thing I see happening is that a portion of Josh Reynolds’ 64 vacated targets will also head to Gibbs. With 81 targets up for grabs, I think it’s fair to project 19 of them to head Gibbs’ way, giving him 90 targets this season.
Last year, he caught the ball 73% of the time and registered 6.1 yards per carry. We’ll keep the catch rate the same, but that YPC has major room for improvement. David Montgomery averaged 7.3 yards per catch. Let’s put Gibbs at 7.0, giving him 65 catches for 455 yards. This scenario is starting to look very good.
The Touchdowns
Look, touchdowns are hard to predict, so there won’t be a ton of analysis here. Last year, Gibbs scored ten times on the ground, while Montgomery scored 13. I am predicting a shift to Gibbs as the lead back, so my split is 11 for Gibbs and 10 for Monty. This seems like a fair prediction. It also probably won’t get Gibbs to the RB1 overall spot, but if he hits that 13…BOOM! In the receiving game, Gibbs only managed one TD last year. With Dome-Game Goff at the helm, I think we will see an increase in overall TDs for Detroit, and I believe Gibbs could find the endzone three to five times through the air. So, at the low end of my prediction, Gibbs scores 14 TDs, 11 rushing and three receiving. At the high end, he hits paydirt 18 times, and you can crown his ass right now!
The RB1?
So, my final stat line for Gibbs is 1088 rushing yards, 65 catches, 455 receiving yards, and somewhere between 14-18 touchdowns. Is this far too optimistic? Yes. Do I care? No. No, I do not. Hopefully, I’ve at least shown you how these numbers are possible. That would equate to 303 and 327 points in PPR scoring. Last year, Christian McCaffrey scored 391. Oof. All that work just to be the RB2. But in reality, if Jahmyr Gibbs is the RB2 to another CMC god-like season, it’s still a great year. Jahmyr Gibbs will be my 1st round selection in any draft where I pick seven or later, and I cannot wait to see how good he is in 2024, especially if I’m right. I thoroughly enjoy being right.
See where Jahmyr Gibbs sits in our 2024 fantasy football rankings!
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A Look Inside the Detroit Lions
Editor’s Note: While Ryan focused on Jahmyr Gibbs in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Lions.
Jared Goff
Goff was the QB5 last year and might be the biggest steal in fantasy football this season. He’s going off most boards as the QB12 or later. With 14 dome games in 2024, Goff could improve on his already great stats from 2023.
David Montgomery
While I clearly expect Montgomery to take a small step back, 200 carries and 10 rushing TDs are still very viable for fantasy managers. I won’t draft him in leagues where I landed Gibbs, but he will be a heavy consideration in the 5th round of any other draft.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Sun God was already the WR3 in fantasy last year and has firmly established himself as a highly productive target hog. With my expectations that Goff is better in 2024, don’t expect a dip from ARSB. He is one of six players I would take before Gibbs in Round 1.
Jameson Williams
Will this finally be the year? With 70 vacated targets and the WR2 role wide open, it better be. If you can land Williams for cheap, his current 10th-round ADP feels right, he’s a good lottery ticket. He has all the talent in the world. We just need to see it for more than a few games or a few catches in a single season.
Sam LaPorta
Many think we might have seen the best we’ll see from LaPorta in his first year in the league. I don’t disagree, but I also don’t think regression is guaranteed. As mentioned, I LOVE this offense for 2024, and with that, I think LaPorta could put up the exact same stat line. It might not be good enough to finish as the top TE in fantasy again, but he’ll still pay off at ADP.
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