James Cook is going into year three in the NFL. In year 2, he went from 89 attempts to 237 attempts. Cook went from 21 receptions to 44 and three touchdowns to six. He literally doubled or tripled his involvement in the offense, including in the touchdown department. He finished as an RB1 on the year. Yet people are only talking about his limited upside because Josh Allen is the known touchdown vulture near the goalline. That may be true, but James Cook can have a lot of value and fantasy football upside this year in other departments. Especially at his modest ADP. This article needed to be written for the good of the community. Let’s get into it.
James Cook 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Let’s start with how interesting the 2023 Bills were. They were a sight to behold. The team was sixth in total offense (26.5 ppg) and fourth in total defense (18.3 ppg allowed), and at one point, they were in danger of missing the playoffs. The Bills were 6-6 and three games back of the Dolphins at the time. It would also be the first time since Tom Brady that they would have failed to win the division. Fast forward and they finished 11-6 and won the division and hosted a divisional round game. James Cook and offensive coordinator Joe Brady played a big role in the 6-wins in a row, or 7-out-of-8, in a way that needs to be studied further. Let’s start with how Brady affected the offense.
The New Offense
Joe Brady took over in Week 11, when the team was 5-5 and was coming off of an embarrassing loss at home to the Denver Broncos. The Bills were 2-4 in their last six and had not scored over 25 points in a month-and-a-half-long skid. Brady takes over the role of offensive coordinator, the Bills finish 6-1, and make the divisional round of the playoffs. In those nine games, the Bills only scored fewer than 24 points twice. Joe Brady is the permanent OC right now. Quite the turnaround, right?
You saw the upside for James Cook with Brady as the offensive coordinator. Again, Brady took over in Week 11. Cook was on pace for 284 attempts, 49 receptions, 1773 yards from scrimmage, and eight total touchdowns over a 17-game season, with Brady calling the plays and running the offense. That was with Diggs and Gabe Davis still in town. Diggs’ demise in the Bills offense has been talked about since January. However, he was still on pace for 141 targets in Brady’s offense on a 17-game pace. How did that translate to fantasy?
The Fantasy Value
Between Week 11 and through the championship week, James Cook was the RB7. Cook put up 17.8 points per game (ppg) during that time. That ppg was higher than Jahmyr Gibbs (15.8) and Saquon Barkley (15.5). Those two individuals are being taken in the top 24 overall of ADP on Underdog Fantasy. Cook is closer to pick 60 than the top 50. He is the RB13 off the board. As someone who was an RB7 in a six-week span and someone who finished in the top 12 of RBs, that’s pretty good value in drafts.
There is also a ton of vacated targets and attempts in this offense. Diggs and his 160 targets are in Houston. They shifted the offense away from Diggs, starting with Joe Brady anyway, but Diggs’s pace with Brady would have still been 141 targets. Gabe Davis is gone, too. That’s now 241 vacated targets. Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Leonard Fournette, and their 114 rush attempts are out the door. The only addition to the RB room was a day-3 pick, Ray Davis. If health permits, then James Cook should have a fairly high floor. RB-15 floor maybe.
The critics of James Cook will say he doesn’t have the upside because of Josh Allen. They are right. Partially. But you aren’t drafting James Cook to be a top-5 RB since he will get vultured a ton by Josh Allen inside the 5. You are drafting him as a top-15 RB who has room to improve in the TD department. Why? There are 15 5-zone attempts out the door with the RBs that are gone.
James Cook only had two rushing touchdowns. If it increases to 4-5 with the comfortability of his expected target share floor, attempt floor, and lack of options behind him, his ceiling could still be a top-10 RB. Yes, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel figure to vie for the vacated targets. They are a rookie and someone who has always had a good role but never been the alpha. Dalton Kincaid is a good bet to lead the team in targets but then who is next? The rookie? Samuel? Maybe James Cook? Not much upside in touchdowns but so much to be determined in the passing game. There’s still upside.
The Draft Competition
Take James Cook over Josh Jacobs at ADP. Josh Jacobs has been to the mountain top but he also crashed hard last year. Jacobs had the worst year of his career. He went from 4.9 ypc to 3.5 (4.4 career ypc before last year). He also went to a team that Aaron Jones, a known pass catcher, only had 43 targets. The Packers also have 4 young WRs and a TE that are growing with Jordan Love. It’s a crowded team. It’s no longer him and Davante Adams. If Jacobs struggles again, the Packers will take USC standout Marshawn Lloyd. I will take Cook in the passing game. The path to more attempts might go to James Cook in the Joe Brady offense. The efficiency is James Cook, and it’s not even close. That will all more thqan make up for Jacobs likely having more rushing touchdowns.
Take James Cook over the plethora of WRs going in the area. Keenan Allen is on a new team, with a rookie QB, competition targets from DJ Moore, and a top-10 WR in Rome Odunze was drafted. Jayden Reed spent nearly 50% of his weeks as a WR-4 or worse, and who can accurately predict week to week on the Packers if it’s a Watson, Doubs, or Wicks, TE, or running back week? There is no alpha on the Packers.
Rashee Rice could be suspended and now Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy are in town. Hollywood Brown is in the same range, too. Rashee Rice is the established WR in KC so far. Also, Travis Kelce? Remember him? There are rookie WRs Worthy and Odunze with a lot of target competition on their teams. DeAndre Hopkins saw the Titans pay Ridley a massive contract to come to town and line up on the other side of him. There isn’t a single WR or RB that screams buy in the area, so why not James Cook?
The Draft Strategy
Let’s say you are like me and tend to gravitate towards going heavy WRs early. Picture this start from the 12-spot, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, Terry McLaurin, and Travis Kelce. You are set at the WR and TE positions (hopefully all season). You can go lock in James Cook for your RB1 and know that the likely floor is a mid-RB2. That’s pretty good considering the make-up of the team and you can shoot for the moon on your other RB position. You can also start high T and go Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor from that same 12 spot. Then you go Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin. Cook then becomes a great upside pick to stick in the flex. He has top-10 RB potential, as noted.
Both hypothetical starts lead to James Cook being an asset to your team, no matter what role he is drafted to be in. A modest eight-touchdown total (last year, he had six) could lead him to challenge Travis Etienne and Jonathan Taylor (much higher prices). He could also be closer to Breece Hall than someone like Joe Mixon is to James Cook. He’s a fascinating player, and I like his outlook for 2024. I will be drafting him where I can on my teams.
See where James Cook stacks up in our 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings!
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A Look Inside the Buffalo Bills
Editor’s Note: While Chris focused on James Cook in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Bills from Ryan Weisse.
Josh Allen
Even with Diggs and Davis gone, fantasy managers should still view Allen as one of the best QBs in the league. He makes his WRs better, and he has a rushing upside that most QBs lack. Is he worth his high ADP? That is up to you and your draft strategy. I prefer to wait on QB, but Josh Allen is never the wrong answer.
Keon Coleman
Coleman is more Gabe Davis than Stefon Diggs. He is a tall receiver who should live off of big-play ability—think Mike Evans…eventually. He is still very raw. However, if he can be more consistent than Davis, Allen should view him as a WR1 and pepper him as such.
Khalil Shakir
Shakir is likely to move into Diggs’ role as the primary receiver. I doubt we’ll see 140 targets head his way, but he has more rapport with Allen than any other WR on the team. He could easily lead the team in targets and finish the season as a WR2 in fantasy.
Curtis Samuel
Samuel should fill the gaps between Shakir and Coleman. He is the lone veteran in this receiving corps, and that could earn Allen’s trust quickly. We’ve never seen Samuel in a premier role, and that is unlikely to change in Buffalo. He will do what the team needs him to, but I don’t expect to see him anywhere near 100 targets.
Dalton Kincaid
If one of the WRs doesn’t step up, Kincaid will be the true WR1 in Buffalo. He’s coming off a rookie season where he finished as the TE11 on 91 targets. It seems unlikely that he won’t cross 100 targets this season, and with that will certainly come fantasy value. He could break into the top 5 and even has a shot to finish first overall if 120 targets head his way.
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