The youngest NFL franchise has finally found their QB of the future. The Houston Texans seemingly struck gold when they drafted Ohio State alumni CJ Stroud second overall in 2023. After being in QB purgatory since their franchise was founded in 1999, Stroud led the team to their first playoff win since 2019. Going into this 2024 fantasy football season, all eyes will be on him to see if he takes the next step into the elite tier of quarterbacks.
CJ Stroud in his playoff debut 😤
16/21
274 YDS
3 TD
157.2 QBRT pic.twitter.com/wMIvfTqR3c— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 14, 2024
CJ Stroud 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Rookie Season Review
Stroud got off to a slow start with an underwhelming regular season debut in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens. He had 242 passing yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. That stat line made him the fantasy QB22 on the week. From that point on, he wasted no time showing Houston they’d found their franchise quarterback. Over the next five games, he threw nine touchdowns and one single interception while averaging 283.6 yards per game. The final stat line for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year was 4,108 passing yards and a 23-5 TD/Int ratio.
The passing metrics don’t get much better for rookie QBs than what we saw from C.J. Stroud last season. He completed 49.2% of his pass attempts of 25+ air yards, which was the fifth-best mark in the NFL. He was also Top 5 in both yards per attempt and net yards gained per attempt (accounts for yards lost from taking sacks), according to Pro Football reference. This shows us how efficient he was as a passer and also highlights his great decision-making. From an NFL standpoint, there is little doubt that the Texans have hit a home run with Stroud. Let’s look at how much Stroud helped your fantasy team.
Historical quarterback PFF grading and efficiency (EPA/play) through Week 12 of their rookie seasons. Min 100 plays
QBs from the 2023 class have red, bolded labels
CJ Stroud has the best PFF grade through Week 12 for any rookie they’ve charted pic.twitter.com/Az1eWLouFk
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) November 30, 2023
Fantasy Impact
If we go back and look at Stroud’s weekly fantasy performances throughout his rookie season, he had just five Top 10 QB finishes and was in the Top 5 only twice. Even though he maintained a solid floor with only four finishes outside of the Top 20, he was rarely a difference-maker for your fantasy team.
The problem stems from his lack of rushing. Stroud had just one game all season with over 20 yards rushing. In fantasy football, rushing production is a cheat code for QBs.
It’s how players like Justin Fields, an expected backup role this upcoming season, could be viewed as an elite fantasy option in 2023. With more mobile/dual-threat QBs coming into the NFL each year, it’s difficult for a pocket passer like Stroud to keep up with their fantasy production.
2024 Outlook
According to Draftsharks, Stroud’s current ADP sits at QB5. For him to return a Top 5 fantasy finish, he will likely have to see a major increase in pass attempts and/or touchdowns. The Texans will return offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik for his second season with the team, so we shouldn’t expect much of a philosophy change with the offense. Slowik runs a fairly balanced offense, as Houston was middle-of-the-road in both pass and rush attempts.
Both the RB and WR rooms received upgrades, with veteran stars Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs joining the team this off-season. You can make the case that the offense will become more efficient. That should lead to more scoring opportunities, but touchdowns are difficult to predict from year to year.
With typical scoring settings, mobile quarterbacks will always dominate fantasy football. I won’t find myself drafting Stroud at his current ADP ahead of names like Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott. They all tend to run the ball more often than Stroud. Unless he can manage an elite passing touchdown rate or see a boost in his pass volume, it will be tough for C.J. Stroud to make his QB5 ADP worth it.
Check out where CJ Stroud falls in our 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings!
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A Look Inside the Houston Texans
Editor’s Note: While Drew focused on CJ Stroud in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Texans from Ryan Weisse.
Joe Mixon
Mixon hasn’t been very efficient as of late, but volume has propped him to a Top 10 spot in fantasy football. His role in Houston should be very similar to the one he left in Cincinnati but behind a better offensive line. Expect similar, if not slightly better, output from Mixon.
Stefon Diggs
The other newcomer in this offense, Diggs, finds himself in a completely different situation than the one he left. In Buffalo, he was the clear No. 1 receiver, no questions asked. In Houston, there are more questions than answers. How will Stroud spread the ball among three very good wide receivers? Will Houston throw more, even with a defensive, run-first head coach? Is Diggs the WR1? With an extremely high ADP, you can only draft Diggs if you truly believe he will lead this team in targets.
Nico Collins
Last year’s target leader is back with a big new contract. After Tank Dell was hurt, Collins flourished as the team’s best and only wide receiver. Now, we’ll see if he can get it done with competition. His draft cost is lower than Diggs’, but still high as a top-25 WR. With his excellent efficiency last year, he could pay off even with fewer targets.
Tank Dell
Dell is the presumed odd man out if the Texans don’t start running more three-WR sets. He’s not as good on the outside as Collins and not as good in the slot as Diggs. However, will the Texans really take their 4th best player off the field to get an extra TE or FB in the game? That seems like a bad decision and is not on par with what we’ve seen from DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik to this point. We didn’t see a lot of Dell last year before his injury, but we saw enough to see he is special. As the cheapest WR on this team, I will gamble on Dell for fantasy purposes.
Dalton Schultz
My bet for the odd man out is Schultz. His numbers last year were inflated by the fact that he was essentially the team’s WR2. That won’t be the case in 2024. Even with the higher volume last season, he still only finished as the TE10. With a current ADP of TE13, he has almost no upside.
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