Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Preview: Baker Mayfield

I was initially going to write this article about Mike Evans, but thought better of it. What was I going to say that you haven’t heard 1000 times? He is going to go over 1000 yards again and finish as a top-20 fantasy WR—end of article. However, while there should be zero doubt about Mike Evans, it seems that fantasy football managers aren’t quite ready to trust Baker Mayfield yet. After a career year in Tampa Bay, will yet another new offensive scheme drag Mayfield back to Earth?

Baker Mayfield 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

Last Season

There was hesitation in the fantasy world around Baker Mayfield and the entire Buccaneers offense heading into 2023. With Tom Brady’s retirement and a new offensive coordinator, this would not be the Bucs offense we were used to in fantasy football. Also, to this point in his career, there was little reason to have faith in Mayfield. He was with his 4th team in 3 years and hadn’t been a factor in fantasy since 2020. Why should we have optimism? Enter Dave Canales.

In Canales’ offense, we saw the resurgence of Geno Smith in 2022, and he would do the same with Baker Mayfield. The Bucs only threw the ball 566 times, 137 fewer attempts than with Brady in 2022. However, Mayfield threw for just 650 fewer yards than Brady and actually connected on three more TDs. With a final stat line of 4044 yards and 28 TDs, Mayfield finished as the QB10 in fantasy. Heading into 2024, he gets all of his starting targets back and even got a new WR and RB in the draft. Why are we letting him fall to QB22 in early fantasy drafts?

The New Offense

Exit Dave Canales. Most fantasy managers’ issue with Baker Mayfield has nothing to do with Mayfield. When his offensive coordinator took the head coach job in Carolina, momentum and hype left the building. While it is sad to see Mayfield have to learn yet another offense, it’s not like it’s a bad offense for fantasy…and he’s already played in it. Liam Coen was the offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, where Mayfield ended up after the Panthers cut him.

Mayfield notoriously started for the Rams after being with the team for just a few days. His numbers weren’t great, putting up 950 yards and four TDs in five games, but it wasn’t exactly a great situation. However, the Rams were just a bad team in 2022 and neither Coen nor Mayfield is entirely responsible for that season.

Now, in Tampa, Mayfield has an entire offseason to prepare with receivers he’s already comfortable with and players who trust him. This Rams scheme has given us Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, and Cooper Kupp. Are we really so sure that Mayfield is going to take a step back in 2024?

Expectations for 2024

When looking at Coen’s time with the Rams, I am focusing on 2020 and 2022, where he was the QB coach and offensive coordinator. In those seasons, the team threw the ball about 550 times per year.  In other words, Mayfield should see similar attempts to those he saw in 2023. Coen’s Rams teams only averaged about 18 TDs per season, but one of those was a 16-game season with Jared Goff, and the other was with four different QBs in 2022. We’ve seen big QB seasons in this scheme, and it feels like a strong possibility Mayfield can at least match his 2023. He’ll have the same attempts with the same receivers.

That’s right, he still has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Mayfield, Evans, and Godwin compare relatively well to Stafford, Kupp, and Robert Woods. Cade Otton returns at TE, and Rachaad White at RB. The scheme might be different, but the offense is the same. While saying he will be the same as last year is boring, at QB, boring can win in fantasy football.

Is he going to finish as top-10 QB again? Probably not, especially if other QBs like Anthony Richardson and Kirk Cousins stay healthy, but he doesn’t need to finish Top 10 to make a difference in fantasy football.  Last year, Mayfield averaged 19 points per game, so even if he falls in the rankings, he is still a viable starter for fantasy managers.

In most 1-QB drafts, Baker Mayfield goes undrafted. You can literally wait until the last round of your draft and still walk out with a QB who has a safe floor and a proven top-10 ceiling. Imagine what you could do with all of your early and mid-draft capital spent on RBs and WRs, then grab a solid starting QB with your last pick? It might not be the most exciting, but a roster filled with great RBs and WRs and a quarterback who does his job also sounds like a recipe for a fantasy championship.

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See where Baker Mayfield sits in our 2024 fantasy football rankings!
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A Look Inside the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Editor’s Note: While Ryan focused on Baker Mayfield in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Buccaneers.

Rachaad White

White was FAR from efficient last year, but that has been the story of this Tampa Bay running game for years. However, even at 3.6 yards per carry, he was a top-5 fantasy back. How? VOLUME. He carried the ball 272 times and added another 60 receptions. Throw in nine total TDs, and you have fantasy production most backs can only dream of. You won’t like what you see on the TV, but you’ll love the box score when the game is over.

Bucky Irving

Irving is quick and athletic. His 40 time didn’t show it, but his film does. His skill set gives hope that we will see a Tampa Bay RB finish with over four yards per carry for the first time since 2021. He is not a great pass blocker, so don’t expect him to steal third-down work from White. Irving will definitely play a complementary role. However, with the ability to score from anywhere on the field, Irving could have stand-alone value in fantasy, especially if your league rewards kick returners.

Mike Evans

He is going to go over 1000 yards for the 11th straight season and finish as a top-20 fantasy WR for the ninth straight season. Draft him without worry.

Chris Godwin

I wasn’t sure how to feel about Chris Godwin after a mediocre 2023. That all changed with four words: The Cooper Kupp Role. In a Rams-esque offense, there is no higher praise. Is it coach speak? Sure. Do I care? Not one f***ing bit. I used to like Chris Godwin. Now, I love him.

Cade Otton

Otton is a full-time starter with almost no competition on his depth chart. Yet, he’s almost free in fantasy drafts. The issue is that he will play a similar role to 2023, where he finished as the TE19. He will be a staple on my Stream of the Week list but don’t waste your draft capital.