Before I start, let me say I know what you’re all thinking. “Let’s get the resident Cowboys fan to wax poetic about how Ezekiel Elliott is ready to return to glory in this offense blah, blah, blah. I’m going to squash that right away. However, there could still be some return on value at his current fantasy football ADP. There are some very large question marks surrounding Dallas’ offense. Although we shouldn’t expect Elliott to return to the league leader in rushing yards, he should have a larger role ahead of guys like Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, and Royce Freeman. So, what kind of upside are we looking at here?
Ezekiel Elliott 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Why Elliott Will Return Value at ADP
Looking back on Elliott’s career stats, there’s no question that his fantasy value has been buoyed every year by his touchdown upside. He may not be the most efficient at times, but the play callers always find a way to give him red zone and goal-line work. In four of his seven seasons in Dallas, he had double-digit rushing touchdowns. In two of the years he didn’t, he was sniffing like a bloodhound with nine (including one year where he only played ten games due to suspension).
Clearly, last year with the Patriots diminished his value. However, when he became the focal point of the offense after an injury sidelined Rhamondre Stevenson, we saw the same ole’ RB1 upside. From Weeks 12-18, Zeke was the RB10 in PPR formats, and that was with him scoring only three touchdowns through that span. Was his yards per carry average down? Sure. But how much of that was due to a Patriots offense that was one-dimensional due to poor quarterback play and lack of receivers versus age and decline? I’d go with the former.
There are plenty of vacated touches in this offense, not only in the form of carries but in targets. Elliott is a skilled pass-catcher, and that’s something Dallas DESPERATELY needs. CeeDee Lamb is currently in a stalemate due to a contract extension, Brandin Cooks is a little long in the tooth, Michael Gallup is gone, Jalen Tolbert is unproven, etc. etc. Even if he’s not the power back that we’ve seen in the past, he’ll have value in short-yardage and goal-line situations. That role gives him upside that’s hard to find with other running backs in the 11th round.
Aaaand, before you say, “he’s old, he’s washed up, yap, yap, yap!” let’s look at his history of durability. In his eight seasons in the NFL, Elliott has only missed four games due to injury. FOUR. I challenge you to find any running back with that kind of track record.
Why Elliott Won’t Return Value at ADP
Well, guys, here’s where the sunshine, rainbows, and eternal optimism of a Cowboys fan have to be put to the side. There are some concerns with Elliott. First, it’s not a lock that he’ll see the bell-cow role he was in prior to heading to New England. In fact, DallasCowboys.com reports that head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will deploy a committee backfield. Now, it is early in the season, and that can always change, but usually, when someone tells you their plan, I tend to listen.
There’s also the issue of the Cowboys’ offensive line and who they lost. Tyron Smith went to the New York Jets, while center Tyler Biadasz followed Dan Quinn to Washington. This leaves some major holes in the trenches. With Zeke’s pass-blocking ability, he may be asked to help shore up the line rather than carry the ball. While he’s not as technical as he was, it may be a matter of necessity to keep Dak Prescott upright. That obviously takes away from his fantasy value.
Then, he may just be getting old. We typically see regression in NFL running backs by the time they turn 30. Although Elliott will only be 29 by the time the season starts, a drop-off in production is bound to happen. Last season, his yards per carry average dropped to 3.5 yards from 3.8 the year before and 4.2 in 2021. In fact, he’s seen a steady decline since 2018, when he averaged 4.7 yards per carry. You’re really banking on touchdowns with Elliott, and that’s a dangerous game to play, especially if the Dallas offense regresses as a whole.
Is it Worth the Risk to Draft Ezekiel Elliott?
Fan bias aside, I am looking at drafting Elliott at his current ADP. He’s going as an RB4 on most sites, and with his durability and usage in this offense, along with last year’s finish, he can return value. He may not be in RB1 territory anymore, but I’d much rather have him than some of the others in this range.
We saw Raheem Mostert win leagues for people last season. I’m not putting Elliott in that realm just yet, but he’s in a great spot to return value. He’s durable, in a familiar offense, and should be trying to prove that he still has a lot of gas left in the tank. I’m willing to take a chance on the veteran and his homecoming to the Big D.
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A Look Inside the Dallas Cowboys
Editor’s Note: While Ryan focused on Ezekiel Elliott in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Cowboys from Josh Hudson.
Dak Prescott
Prescott is continually under-drafted, and it’s like none of you even care. He led the league in TD passes a year ago and finished tied for 2nd in total TDs among QBs. That was good enough for QB3 numbers in all of fantasy football. And maybe you haven’t heard, but he’s a free agent at season’s end. If this isn’t set up to be Dak’s best season yet, I don’t know what is.
Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Royce Freeman
This has got to be the ugliest running back room in the entire NFL. Mike McCarthy is pretty well known for neglecting the run, but this is next level. The Cowboys might have the fewest rush attempts of any team in the NFL in 2024. And when you look at this list of RBs that are set to back up Ezekiel Elliott, it’s understandable as to why.
Cee Dee Lamb
If he’s not the first WR off the board in your fantasy draft, it’s because he’s the second. There’s no one else on this team who commands targets the way Lamb does. Oh, and he’s playing for a contract, too. Draft him with confidence, just pay attention to his hold out. If it extends deep into the preseason, I might be a little worried he won’t repeat as the overall WR1.
Brandin Cooks
Remember when Cooks was the most underrated wide receiver in the league, who just continually went out there and had 1,000 receiving yards on a consistent basis? I miss those days. Cooks is there to keep defenses honest so Lamb can do Lamb things. Fair value with where he’s being drafted. You just don’t need to be the one doing the drafting.
Jake Ferguson
Get ready for an encore of Jake Ferguson’s coming out party. He registered 102 targets a year ago, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he saw more targets this year with no legitimate second option in this passing game. The TE dead zone is usually a trap, but when there’s volume to chase, you chase it. Draft Ferguson after the top 6 are gone, and do so with a smile.
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