The 2023 fantasy season came to a quick and crushing end for Nick Chubb. After a solid Week 1, he injured (read: destroyed) his knee in a Week 2 matchup against the rival Steelers. Running back is an unforgiving position. In fantasy, just being an older back is a concern, even if you’re not dealing with a rebuilt knee. So, fantasy football managers have every right to be concerned about drafting Nick Chubb. Is he worth the risk?
Nick Chubb 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Why You Want Him
I was tempted to just drop Chubb’s career stats here and leave it at that. Save on word count. The guy averages over five yards per carry and averages over 1200 yards per season, not counting 2023. The passing game has always been a weakness, but when Cleveland does decide to throw him the ball, he averages over seven yards per catch and scores a touchdown every 30 receptions. He might be a good receiving back, but he’s a great runner, and the Browns prefer to use him that way.
From 2018-2022, Chubb finished as the RB17, RB8, RB11, RB13, and RB6. When people were skeptical to draft him as a top-10 back, I didn’t agree, but I understood. He has a safe floor and an excellent ceiling. His lack of usage in the passing game capped his upside, but few would argue that he was one of, if not the best, pure runner in the NFL.
BTDubs…here are his career stats. They really do speak for themselves.
Nick Chubb Career Stats
| Games | Rushing | Receiving | Total Yds | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Age | Tm | Pos | No. | G | GS | Att | Yds | TD | 1D | Succ% | Lng | Y/A | Y/G | A/G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | 1D | Succ% | Lng | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | Y/Tgt | Touch | Y/Tch | YScm | RRTD | Fmb | AV | Awards |
| 2018 | 23 | CLE | RB | 24 | 16 | 9 | 192 | 996 | 8 | 47 | 47.9 | 92 | 5.2 | 62.3 | 12.0 | 29 | 20 | 149 | 7.5 | 2 | 5 | 41.4 | 24 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 69.0% | 5.1 | 212 | 5.4 | 1145 | 10 | 0 | 6 | |
| 2019* | 24 | CLE | RB | 24 | 16 | 16 | 298 | 1494 | 8 | 62 | 43.6 | 88 | 5.0 | 93.4 | 18.6 | 49 | 36 | 278 | 7.7 | 0 | 13 | 42.9 | 32 | 2.3 | 17.4 | 73.5% | 5.7 | 334 | 5.3 | 1772 | 8 | 3 | 12 | PB |
| 2020* | 25 | CLE | RB | 24 | 12 | 12 | 190 | 1067 | 12 | 56 | 51.6 | 59 | 5.6 | 88.9 | 15.8 | 18 | 16 | 150 | 9.4 | 0 | 6 | 61.1 | 26 | 1.3 | 12.5 | 88.9% | 8.3 | 206 | 5.9 | 1217 | 12 | 1 | 9 | PB |
| 2021* | 26 | CLE | RB | 24 | 14 | 14 | 228 | 1259 | 8 | 61 | 49.1 | 70 | 5.5 | 89.9 | 16.3 | 25 | 20 | 174 | 8.7 | 1 | 9 | 52.0 | 40 | 1.4 | 12.4 | 80.0% | 7.0 | 248 | 5.8 | 1433 | 9 | 2 | 10 | PB |
| 2022* | 27 | CLE | RB | 24 | 17 | 17 | 302 | 1525 | 12 | 69 | 50.0 | 41 | 5.0 | 89.7 | 17.8 | 37 | 27 | 239 | 8.9 | 1 | 12 | 51.4 | 26 | 1.6 | 14.1 | 73.0% | 6.5 | 329 | 5.4 | 1764 | 13 | 1 | 12 | AP2, PB |
| 2023 | 28 | CLE | RB | 24 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 170 | 0 | 8 | 57.1 | 20 | 6.1 | 85.0 | 14.0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | 1 | 50.0 | 10 | 2.0 | 10.5 | 100.0% | 5.3 | 32 | 6.0 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Career | 77 | 70 | 1238 | 6511 | 48 | 303 | 48.4 | 92 | 5.3 | 84.6 | 16.1 | 162 | 123 | 1011 | 8.2 | 4 | 46 | 48.1 | 40 | 1.6 | 13.1 | 75.9% | 6.2 | 1361 | 5.5 | 7522 | 52 | 7 | 50 | |||||
Why You Don’t Want Him
If you play fantasy football, you’re probably fully aware of Chubb’s devastating knee injury last season. In Week 2, he tore his ACL, MCL, and injured his meniscus. It ended up taking two surgeries to fix everything that was broken in the 28-year-old back. To make matters worse, it was the second time his left knee suffered this type of injury.
While he recovered quite well from his injury in college, he’s older now. Recovery time is not the same for any back in their late-20s as it was in their early years. The Browns also won’t put a timetable on his return. The fear among fantasy managers is that he’ll be a wasted pick. You’ll draft him, and he’ll sit on your bench for the entire season. While that seems unlikely, it’s not impossible. If Chubb were being drafted early, I would fully understand the concern…but he’s a 10th-round pick.
The absolute worst-case scenario is that Chubb misses the whole season. In that case, he’ll likely start the season on the PUP, meaning you’ll be able to put him on your injured reserve, assuming your league allows it. In fact, every scenario that doesn’t involve Chubb playing Week 1 likely means he ends up on the PUP. If you can stash him on the IR, he’s absolutely worth his current draft price. All you’re out is the mid-to-late round pick you spent on him, and everybody in that range could bust this season. Very few possess Chubb’s upside.
Should You Draft Nick Chubb?
Over his career, Chubb averages 15.4 PPR points per game. His best season was 2020, where he averaged 17.3 points per game. His worst was his rookie year, at only 12.2 points per game. If he starts the season on the PUP, he must miss four games, meaning you’ll get 12 games this season, Week 5-17, with a Week 10 bye. I don’t see him missing the whole season, so the next worst-case is he misses half the year, so we get nine games from him.
At his career-worst 12 fantasy points per game, Chubb would finish as the RB35 in 12 games and RB45 in nine games, but that’s not the whole story. Those are season-long numbers. If you just look at the time he’ll play, he would be RB16 (12 games) and RB20 (nine games), based on last year’s numbers in those spans. Keep in mind this is assuming he averages his career-worst fantasy numbers. He is currently the RB39 based on average draft position. Talk about value!
If you get 9-12 games from Chubb, your fantasy team is going to be better for it. If he plays Week 1, he could be the reason you win your league. He was hurt in Week 2 last year, so the start of the season is 12 months since his injury. The only situation where I’m avoiding him is in leagues with shallow benches and no IR. I’ve been hammering him as a 10th-round pick in Best Ball drafts with 18-player rosters. Browns trainers are saying Chubb is far ahead of schedule, and as we roll into redraft season, we’ll continue to get more information on his recovery. His ADP could change, but if drafters remain tepid, the reward far outweighs the risk.
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A Look Inside the Cleveland Browns
Editor’s Note: While Ryan focused on Nick Chubb in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Browns.
Deshaun Watson
What we’ve seen from Watson recently says he is FAR from the QB we saw in Houston. He still has a great rushing upside, but after missing 22 of the last 34 games, his injury risk is a big red flag. And that is just one of the many red flags associated with Deshaun Watson.
Jerome Ford
Ford was an above-average replacement last year and finished as the RB16 in fantasy. While he ceded carries to Kareem Hunt, he took almost all of the passing-down work. If he maintains that passing role in 2024, there could be value, even when he loses the bulk of his carries to more capable runners.
D’Onta Foreman
Foreman is the first back we’ve seen really bounce back from an Achilles injury. It took years, but he was the best back in Carolina in 2022 and the best in Chicago last year. If Chubb misses time, it will likely be Foreman who handles first and second down, while Ford becomes a third-down back. In the Browns’ prolific rushing attack, there is value in being Chubb’s replacement, even if just for four games. He is worth a late-round flyer in deep leagues.
Amari Cooper
Cooper set the world on fire with Joe Flacco last year, but he wasn’t terrible with Watson. He scored 88 fantasy points in the five games in which Watson was the primary QB. That’s over 17 points per game, two more points than he actually averaged on the season. He was the WR20 last season and is currently being drafted as the WR30. There is sneaky value here, even with Watson at QB.
Jerry Jeudy
Cleveland is fast becoming the Island of Misfit Receivers, with all three of their top wideouts being cast-offs from other teams. Jeudy is the latest to join this group. After middling away his time in Denver, can he live up to the hype he garnered when entering the NFL? It’s unlikely in Cleveland, as the second WR in a low-volume passing attack. The good news is that he is pretty cheap if you’re the gambling type.
Elijah Moore
Moore was decent for the Browns last year, but he’ll be in a dreaded 2a/b situation with Jeudy in 2024. There simply isn’t enough passing work to go around in Cleveland, and whoever the second WR is, they’ll be the third option behind Cooper and David Njoku. The third WR has no fantasy value whatsoever.
David Njoku
The true Jekyll and Hyde of 2023, Njoku averaged just eight points per game with Deshaun Watson and over 13 points per game with all other QBs. During his five games with Joe Flacco, Njoku was at 18.2 points per game and was the #2 TE in fantasy football. With Watson at QB and more competition for targets, it’s hard to envision another top-10 season for Njoku in 2024.
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