Aside from his rookie year, Jalen Hurts has been a Top 8 or better quarterback in fantasy football, finishing as the QB3 and QB2 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. However, his scrambling to make plays and fleetness of foot have significantly contributed to his production.
How will the Philadelphia Eagles’ new offense impact Hurts? Will his fantasy production take a nosedive with a star running back and a new offensive coordinator in town? Will the “Tush Push” still be effective with the loss of center Jason Kelce, or will Saquon Barkley be a TD vulture?
Jalen Hurts 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Hurts’ Career Performance
- Passing Yards: Hurts has thrown for 11,764 yards in his NFL career
- Rushing Yards: He has 2,503 rushing yards
- Passing Touchdowns: 67 passing touchdowns
- Rushing Touchdowns: 41 rushing touchdowns
According to these stats, approximately 17.5% of Hurts’ yards and 38% of his touchdowns have come from rushing. The number of his rushing touchdowns is staggering. In 2023, he and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills tied the new record for the most rushing touchdowns by a QB, with 15 each.
Saquon Barkley’s Impact
The impact of a good running back on a rushing quarterback’s stats in the NFL can vary. Generally, a strong RB can draw defensive attention away from the QB, potentially opening up more opportunities for the QB to rush effectively. However, if the RB is particularly dominant like Barkley, the team may rely on more traditional running plays instead.
Offenses led by dual-threat quarterbacks tend to have run-heavy systems. While Barkley’s and Hurts’ rushing abilities could curtail each other’s opportunities, the overall rushing volume of the team could compensate for this.
In other words, Barkley’s presence will influence the offensive strategy and the distribution of rushing plays between the two. That said, if the team maintains its heavy rushing volume, ceding some rushing plays to Barkley shouldn’t diminish Hurts’ stats, even if he doesn’t return to 2022 form as a passer.
OC Kellen Moore’s Potential Impact
Kellen Moore’s offensive scheme has shown a balance between run and pass plays but with a tendency to adapt based on the team’s strengths and game situations. During his time with the Dallas Cowboys, Moore’s offenses were known for being dynamic and versatile, ranking high in both passing and rushing statistics.
That could mean more passing attempts by Hurts. Under Moore’s direction in the 2023 season, the Los Angeles Chargers had a run-pass ratio that leaned heavily towards passing. However, he seemingly pivoted away from the running game, which regressed significantly as the season progressed. The team managed to break 100 rushing yards only in five games, and in their worst ground game performance, they gained just 29 yards on 24 rushing attempts.
Moore should bring potential shifts to the Eagles’ offensive strategies, possibly emphasizing more aggressive run plays and adaptations to under-center formations. While Moore is inclined to have a balanced scheme, he is flexible in adjusting the run-pass ratio to fit the personnel and maximize the team’s performance on the field. He will also include successful plays from the past few years under head coach Nick Sirianni. The two coaches’ shared goal is to keep Hurts among the best at his position, especially after the QB’s MVP-caliber performance in 2022.
The Impact of Jason Kelce’s Departure
Kelce’s skill as a center has critically impacted the success of the “Tush Push.” The “Tush Push” involves Hurts being pushed over the line of scrimmage by teammates for a first down or touchdown. Whether the play can remain effective without the future Hall-of-Fame center has been debated. The Eagles might have to adapt their strategy for short-yardage situations. However, Kelce himself pointed out that while the “Tush Push” has been effective, the team was also successful with traditional QB sneaks before its implementation.
Even without Kelce, the Eagles should still have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The team drafted center Cam Jurgens in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft as the heir-in-waiting to Kelce. Jurgens played over 700 snaps for the team at right guard last season. However, at a little over 300 pounds, he may be more suitable as a center. He struggled a bit at guard at pass-blocking but was solid at run-blocking. That bodes well for Hurts’ continued rushing success.
2024 Expectations
Despite the challenges of adapting to a new offense, Hurts remains an elite force in fantasy football. The Eagles focused on maintaining and strengthening their offensive core during the offseason, which will benefit him. That included retaining offensive linemen, adding depth at the wide receiver position, and extending star receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Hurts’ consistent production and explosiveness make him a worthwhile investment, especially for fantasy football managers looking to secure a top-tier quarterback. His dual-threat abilities, strong supporting cast, and Moore’s track record for producing top offenses position Hurts for another stellar fantasy football season in 2024.
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A Look Inside the Philadelphia Eagles
Editor’s Note: While Bonnie focused on Jalen Hurts in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Eagles from Ryan Weisse.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley was elite in a bad Giants offense. In Philadelphia, he will be the 1a, with Hurts playing the 1b role. It’s a hell of a 1-1 punch. The concern is Hurts vulturing all the TDs but Barkley is going to be just fine on volume and efficiency. If he plays 16 games, he will be a top-10 back in fantasy and is certainly worth your second-round pick.
A.J. Brown
Brown was the WR5 last season and could see even more volume in Moore’s scheme. At 27 years old, there is no reason to expect regression. Last season, he only scored seven TDs, so 2024 could actually see improvement. He is a perfect pick at the back end of the first round.
DeVonta Smith
Smith is one of the few WR2s in the league that still puts up WR1 fantasy numbers. It’s clear he is the second option in this offense, which has led to some consistency issues, but he was still the WR19 on 112 targets last season. If you miss on Brown, Smith is an excellent consolation prize.
Dallas Goedert
The rise of Smith and Brown has led to the fall of Dallas Goedert. Throw in Hurts’ rushing acumen, and the addition of Saquon Barkley and Goedert might be a better streaming option than weekly play in 2024. He was the TE13 last year but only played 14 games. His 17-game pace puts him at TE10. That is probably his ceiling and not all that likely. As a 10th-round pick, he won’t be on any of my fantasy rosters. He doesn’t cost a lot, but there isn’t much upside, either.
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