It wasn’t long ago when fantasy football managers presumed Evan Engram had alligator arms and couldn’t catch. They also pegged him as injury-prone when he missed 13 out of 32 games in his second and third years in the league. Fast forward to 2024, Engram has lived up to the potential that made him a 1st round pick of the New York Giants in 2017. And it’s like none of you care that he led all TEs in targets and receptions in 2023.
Because if you cared, you wouldn’t be letting him fall to the middle of the seventh round as the TE8 off the board. That’s right. The TE2 from last year is going as the eighth TE off the board, smack dab in the middle of the notorious “TE dead zone.” Make it make sense!
Allow me to explain why drafters are idiots since you can grab Engram for a better price than the fancy new upstarts, who haven’t proved nearly as much as Engram over the years.
Evan Engram 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Numbers Only Tell Some of the Story
It’s a common phrase: “Those who don’t know their history are doomed to repeat it.” But in Evan Engram’s case, his history is littered with reasons to avoid him.
Let’s start with the basics. Only twice over seven years has he topped 65 receptions. Only once has he scored more than four touchdowns. He’s averaged fewer than 50 receiving yards a game over his career. And only once has he topped 800 receiving yards in a season.
Certainly not the sexiest resume, right? But if you dive a little deeper, you’ll see he was stuck on an incompetent Giants team for five years. And surprisingly, he managed over 100 targets twice and compiled 11.5 fantasy points per game (PPG) or more in three of those seasons. That was good for three top-7 finishes in five seasons while part of a putrid Giants offense.
He landed in Jacksonville in 2022 after his two worst seasons. While working in Doug Pederson’s offense, Engram shined. He finished as a top-5 TE in back-to-back seasons. The Jaguars loved him so much that they signed him to a multi-year extension after placing the franchise tag on him prior to the 2023 season.
His 1,729 yards over the last two seasons rank fourth among TEs. He’s also third in targets and second in receptions. A change of scenery has clearly done well for Evan Engram.
Pederson’s Offense Loves a Good TE
Doug Pederson has had a thing for TEs for quite some time. Over his last five seasons as a play caller — three in Philadelphia, two in Jacksonville — TEs have never been targeted less on than 20.5% of the time. And the TE1 in his offense has had less than a 16% target share just once. The cherry on top? Three of those five years saw the TE1 average more than eight targets per game. Only three TEs did that in 2023, and Evan Engram was one of them. The other two? T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce.
Pederson had the likes of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia. Now, he has Evan Engram in Jacksonville. What Pederson typically lacks in his offenses is a tried and true WR1. Is that why he loves the TE? Maybe. Or maybe he just loves TEs and hates WRs. But I digress.
Another Change to the WR Room
The Jaguars have reworked their offense quite a bit over the last several years. First, they did the unthinkable and paid Christian Kirk top dollar to lure him away from Arizona. A slot receiver as the team’s number-one target? Blasphemous! And yet, Christian Kirk has been a stud when healthy and quickly become a trusted and reliable target for QB Trevor Lawrence. They also added Zay Jones on a multi-year deal.
Then they brought in Evan Engram on a one-year, prove it deal. That 2022 season saw Kirk lead the team in targets and Zay Jones perform over expectation. Engram saw 98 targets as a quality third option in the offense.
Heading into 2023, the team made plans to anoint their midseason acquisition from the year before, Calvin Ridley, as the team’s new WR1. Ridley was coming off a year-long suspension and missed most of the 2021 season for mental health reasons. While Kirk missed five games, Ridley and Engram became the go-to targets for Lawrence and the Jaguars offense. But for all the talk of Ridley, Engram was the pass catcher to lead the team in targets with 143.
The WR room looks a lot different heading in 2023. Gone are Ridley (Tennessee) and Zay Jones (Arizona), and in are Gabe Davis (from Buffalo) and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU). The only holdovers? Engram and a now healthy Christian Kirk.
Thomas Jr. made his impact at LSU on go routes, racking up 1,177 yards and 17 TDs his Junior year. Gabe Davis has been a notorious boom-or-bust player in the NFL over his four seasons in Buffalo, totaling 2,729 yards and 27 TDs with a 55.6% catch rate.
What these new additions tell us is that Davis and Thomas Jr. will be largely asked to stretch the field while Kirk and Engram work underneath to keep drives alive. Engram has seen his yards per reception dip since joining the Jaguars. (10.8 in New York; 9.2 in Jacksonville.) Conversely, his YAC numbers have skyrocketed. Pederson is giving Engram an opportunity to be a threat with the ball in his hands. And a threat he has become.
Value in the Dead Zone
Throughout the years, after the top-end TEs go off the board in fantasy drafts, the 6-12 range has yielded mixed results. Lots of young TEs have ascended to the top of drafts in 2024 based on one good season and the projection that they’re in for an even better 2024. Why are we drafting on projection when there’s already a tried and true veteran producing like a top 5 TE?
After back-to-back top 5 finishes, Evan Engram currently sits as the TE8. Maybe it’s the lack of TDs (only 24 in seven seasons); maybe it’s the early injury history (he hasn’t missed a game in two years); maybe it’s the alligator arms (he has increased his catch rate from 57.8% in 2020 to 79.7% last year); or maybe people just don’t like good TEs (don’t let Kelly Singh hear you say that).
So what do I say to all that? Do not leave your drafts without Evan Engram. Because after you draft him, winning will follow.
Be sure you’re following Josh Hudson on Twitter. You can also find more great fantasy football content here!
A Look Inside the Jacksonville Jaguars
Editor’s Note: While Josh focused on Evan Engram in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Jaguars from Ryan Weisse.
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has never lived up to the hype surrounding him out of college. Last season, we saw a step back in yards and touchdowns, plus an increase in interceptions. It’s hard to say this team is noticeably better than in 2023, so expect a similar performance to his QB13 finish.
Travis Etienne
Etienne was the RB3 overall last season, and his ADP is RB10 in the 4th Round. That’s great value for a player heading into his third year and saw a significant volume increase from his rookie year. Most importantly, he was targeted 73 times last year, 28 more than his 2022 campaign. His usage in the passing game was what we were waiting for, and now we’re fading him? He could be a steal at his current spot.
Christian Kirk
Kirk missed time last year, and when he did play, he only averaged seven targets per game. He’s not your prototypical WR1, but the loss of Calvin Ridley should open up a few more targets heading his way. He’s a solid WR2 in PPR leagues.
Gabriel Davis
At this point in his career, Davis is who he is. Boom. Or. Bust. One big game followed by three duds. He is not going to change his game in Jacksonville, and he is not a direct replacement for Calvin Ridley. As always, you can never know when to start him, making him a better option in Best Ball formats.
Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas had one good year at LSU, which is a cause for concern for many. The other cause for concern is that his game projects very Gabe Davis-like. The issue is that you have to pay a 7th-round pick for Thomas, and Davis is going four rounds later. Thomas and Davis will fight each other for big plays while Kirk and Engram take all the safe stuff. In redraft, rookies are rarely worth the gamble; just wait on Davis.
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