Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Preview: Adonai Mitchell

Adonai Mitchell 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

Boom or Bust?

Opening an article headlined with the term “Boom or Bust” most likely doesn’t feel very heart-warming. However, knowing how many times we’ve all been burned by the busts, myself included, I have to always remain honest with our audience. Even as a fan of Adonai Mitchell’s overall talent, I say there’s more to dissect than just talent when it comes to his potential this season. The term “boom or bust” doesn’t just focus on Adonai Mitchell’s potential throughout his rookie season. I think it extends to the entire Colts offense, labeling them as “Boom or Bust” as well.

You, the viewer, are reading an article written by someone who’s watched Jonathan Taylor play since his freshman year at Wisconsin. I also had Anthony Richardson as the QB1 of the 2023 Draft Class. And I was extremely optimistic about Alec Pierce’s potential in Indianapolis with Richardson’s skillset last season. So, believe me when I say that this is an honest take.

It is extremely difficult for me not to go all-in on this team with what their potential could be. Everything comes down to the health of Anthony Richardson with unlocking Adonai Mitchell’s full potential this season in fantasy football leagues. The Colts did go out and sign veteran backup QB Joe Flacco to be this year’s insurance plan in case anything goes awry once again. Does that affect Adonai Mitchell?

Does QB Matter?

I was someone who loved what Alec Pierce could bring to Indianapolis with Anthony Richardson in the building. Adonai Mitchell fits the role that Pierce had better. Mitchell also has an abundance of talent to do more with those targets than Pierce. Mitchell is an incredible out-route runner, which fits perfectly into Richardson’s game. Richardson is someone who’s known to have a big arm and isn’t afraid to show it. Pierce was able to find productive weeks with Gardner Minshew, but you’re gonna need to have a big arm to be able to hit Adonai Mitchell in stride after running a 4.5 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. I don’t believe Flacco will be able to do that regularly.

There is some sneaky value in other ways, though, under a Joe Flacco-led offense for AD Mitchell in case of another Richardson injury. Richardson is an incredible athlete and has a bigger arm than Flacco at this point in his career. However, Flacco is still an accurate quarterback, which could be extremely relieving for Mitchell after catching passes from Quinn Ewers at Texas. Ewers threw multiple misplaced balls in Mitchell’s direction that were caught due to an abundance of athleticism from his receiver. On the bright side, it did show his ability to contort his body to make amazing catches. Think Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens.

A Scheme Fit

Mitchell has continued to show out in training camp so far. He is earning the trust of both his quarterback and head coach, Anthony Richardson & Shane Steichen. Is that going to be enough to command a good percentage of targets for fantasy managers to get a valuable deal on him? There is a pathway for it to happen, as we have seen during Steichen’s time in Philadelphia. His scheme gave targets to both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to produce enough points for fantasy managers.

However, we should also take into consideration that Steichen’s QB with Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts, wasn’t coming off a season-ending injury like Anthony Richardson currently is. That Eagles team also didn’t have a starting running back up to the caliber of Jonathan Taylor to relieve some of that workload. That being said, we see the blueprint for what this offense can be and how everyone can be productive in a Shane Steichen-led offense.

Proceed With Caution

There are so many reasons to invest in this offense and be excited about the future. But the future doesn’t have to only be viewed as a few months from now. The future is also still a year from now as well, or two years, or however long it may need to be. The future is bright, though.

Regarding dynasty formats, I would be investing in Adonai Mitchell at his current cost. As for redraft, maybe see if you can invest heavier earlier in the wide receiver position so you can have appropriate expectations for what Adonai Mitchell can do as a rookie. His current role as WR2/3 in this offense feels like if you combined the talent of George Pickens and gave him the role of Gabe Davis in Buffalo. With those comps, maybe Best Ball formats could be the best place to target him this season alone.

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A Look Inside the Indianapolis Colts

Editor’s Note: Although this article focuses on Adonai Mitchell, I believe it is best to see the fantasy football value of others in this Colts offense.

Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson has everything you are looking for in a fantasy football quarterback. He has great size, a willingness to throw the ball downfield, and, most importantly, excellent mobility. Richardson has the opportunity and talent to finish as the QB1 overall. The caveat is that needs to stay on the field throughout the entire regular season. At this point, it seems tough to ask with his injury history, but it’s foolish to fade talent in fantasy football when there’s always the opportunity to double up at the position in case of an injury.

If Richardson can come back from last year’s season-ending injury, using the entirety of his wheelhouse and extending a good portion of plays with his legs, he should be a Top 5 Draft Pick in Superflex leagues. His coaching staff would be naive to go that route with their young franchise quarterback, though. I don’t believe they want to risk another Andrew Luck situation. I would lean on the likelihood of Jonathan Taylor chipping away at most of Richardson’s rushing opportunities to prevent another injury. Even still, Richardson is a valuable QB1 option, likely to finish somewhere inside the Top 10.

Jonathan Taylor

As I’ve alluded to throughout this article, there is a lot of optimism around Jonathan Taylor going into this season. After hearing about what expectations most are putting on Richardson, I thought the consensus wouldn’t be as thrilled about a potential Top 10 season coming from Jonathan Taylor. Recently, I’ve realized that for every person who believes Richardson can finish QB1, there’s another person who believes Jonathan Taylor can finish once again as RB1.

We have seen the talent from Taylor since he was a freshman at Wisconsin. Every season puts the narrative to bed that he has too many “miles on the tires.” Going into 2024 with a contract dispute put to rest, his starting mobile quarterback coming off a season-ending injury, and a huge chip on his shoulder after splitting work with Zach Moss in 2023, I can confidently say that I am all in on Jonathan Taylor in 2024.

Michael Pittman

Much like the career trajectory for Adonai Mitchell that was talked about earlier, we have seen how long it has taken for Michael Pittman to earn the respect that he deserves with how truly talented he is. Although he is extremely talented, there was a huge need for complimentary wide receivers in Indianapolis this offseason. Could Michael Pittman be another AJ Brown for Shane Steichen? It’s a hard comparison to make based on the two receivers. But as we saw last season, the offense is designed to go through Pittman as the WR1.

I still feel confident in Pittman receiving or achieving close to 10 targets a game. That volume makes him extremely valuable in full PPR leagues. Although AD Mitchell has the potential to chip away at some of Pittman’s receiving touchdowns, it’s going to be a tall task to take away more targets from a blue-collar athlete like Michael Pittman.

Josh Downs

To get a good read on Josh Downs in 2024, you have to look in the mirror for what you believe the Colts’ offense will look like. Are you under the impression that Richardson stays healthy? Or do you believe that Flacco ends up seeing the field at some point? Downs arguably has the safest floor of this entire offense in my opinion. However, he also has the lowest ceiling as well. Between Mitchell and Downs, both could be viewed as borderline WR2 but more likely are viewed as WR3s in this Colts’ offense. There’s plenty of value to get from Josh Downs at his ADP of 135.

Downs is currently being listed around players like Mike Williams (NYJ), Xavier Legette (CAR), Jerry Jeudy (CLE), & Troy Franklin (DEN). Seeing the wide receivers being drafted around his current cost, Downs should be the one you target in all redraft leagues.