Trends are funny. One year, everyone is wearing bell bottoms and flowered shirts, and the next year, we have our thumbs through the holes in our sweaters, and we hate our parents. Trends, though, like the cat, always seem to find a way to make their way back. Not so long ago, in a distant dystopian past, Saints fans wore paper bags over their heads and relabelled the team “The Aints.” As we head into the 2024 season, New Orleans is a few Derek Carr bad games away from circling the wagons and bringing back the paper bag trend of the yesteryears.
Fear not, fantasy faithful; there will still be fantasy relevancy this season down in Louisiana. After surviving free agency and the draft cycle, a third-year breakout candidate wide receiver is looking to stake his claim as the WR2 in the new-look offense of the New Orleans Saints. Let’s dive into the why and the where fantasy football managers should be drafting Rashid Shaheed and other members of the Saints offense.
Rashid Shaheed 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Growth
For an undrafted player whose first two touches in the NFL went for touchdowns, Shaheed has shown growth in each season since entering the league. That growth is evident in his increased usage and productivity, making him a value pick at his current WR55 adp. His targets more than doubled from 34 (2.8 per game) to 75 (5.0 per game), with his target share rising from 10.4% to 14.3%. This clearly shows a more significant role in the Saints’ pass attack.
His field stretching capability also saw an increase. His air yards jumped from 415 to 1094, and his aDOT (average depth of target) improved from 12.2 to 14.6. The deep targets, though, where fantasy WR3s and 4s make their bread, increased exponentially from 7 to 24. This growth highlights how the team wants to use him.
Cocked, Locked, and a Year 3 Break Out Ready to be Unloaded
Despite seeing an increase in workload, Shaheed maintained his efficiency. His fantasy points per game (PPG) increased from 8.4 to 10.4, showcasing his worth for fantasy managers. His contested catch rate improved from 25% to 40%. This increase is huge for a WR who isn’t built like your prototypical “go up and get it” receiver.
Additionally, his performance against both zone and man coverage saw significant improvements, with total route wins increasing from 59 to 204 and his win rate improving from 33.5% to 51.3%. Shaheed’s increased opportunities, deep threat capability, and consistent performance against both man and zone make him a must-draft for the 2024 season.
Rashid Shaheed shows up every Sunday and is used constantly with sweeps, screens, and other manufactured touches that keep defenses guessing. If he hits 100 targets, expect Shaheed to put up numbers that will rival Jordan Addison or George Pickens. With projections around 70 receptions, 1,050 yards, and 5-8 touchdowns, Rashid Shaheed is shaping up to be a reliable WR3 in fantasy football.
Scott Fish Bowl 14 Insight
With the scoring format in SFB14 this season highlighting players in the return game, Rashid Shaheed has been THE early value in mock drafts. In this scoring, Shaheed would have averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game last season. That would’ve put him at the WR7 overall.
Now, we’re going into a season where he sees a projected increase in targets. Averaging 38.5 total returns and 615 return yards over his two years in the league, if he sniffs 85+ targets while keeping his role on special teams, Shaheed needs to be a player you reach for. In SFB14, attacking kick returners might be the strategy this year. Bully Kick Returner for the win.
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A Look Inside the New Orleans Saints
Editor’s Note: While Drew focused on Rashid Shaheed in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Saints from Josh Hudson.
Derek Carr
Carr has been a starting QB in the NFL for 10 years. He has never finished below QB20 in any season. And he’s only been a top-12 QB once in those 10 years. Carr is nothing more than a backup QB in fantasy, one who we hope will uplift the talent around him. And even that is questionable.
Alvin Kamara
Will Kamara hold out this season? Time will tell. But I’m going to work under the assumption that he settles his contract and returns to the fold. Chris does a great job of outlining why Shaheed is such a value in fantasy drafts. But the real “WR2” in this offense is Kamara. He just happens to play RB. He saw the most targets he’s had in a season last year since 2020 and caught 75 of them. That was good for second among RBs. He may not be as efficient as a runner as he once was, but he’s always been better with a quality RB next to him, taking on more of the inside runs. If Kendre Miller develops and usurps Jamaal Williams, Kamara will be an amazing value as the current RB17 in early drafts.
Jamaal Williams
If 2022 didn’t make you think Jamaal Williams was a fluke, 2023 sure established it. It took a rogue Jameis Winston on the Saints’ final offensive play of 2023 to help Williams score his first touchdown of the season. That’s a year after he led the league in TDs with 17 while playing in Detroit. Williams isn’t good, and the Saints’ putrid offensive line only makes him worse. Shoot for upside elsewhere.
Kendre Miller
Miller had mostly a lost rookie season, dealing with injuries and the coach’s desire to extract their money’s worth out of a horrible free-agent signing. But it’s Year 2, and it’s time to see why the Saints drafted Miller as the 4th RB in 2023. He can run, with a career 6.8 YPC in college, 2,275 yards, and 25 TDs in three seasons. If he can take the early-down back role and limit Kamara to ~150 carries and lots of receptions, Miller can carve out a Brian Robinson-type role for fantasy managers.
Chris Olave
Does Olave belong in the conversation with Garrett Wilson and Drake London as the next big breakout WR? Or is he destined for a Terry McLaurin-like career arc where we keep expecting high-end production but keep getting middling WR2 disappointment? Derek Carr has one job — FEED CHRIS OLAVE. Olave’s targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns all increased from his rookie season to his 2nd season. The trend suggests Olave is well on his way to being a future WR1. Now we just need to see if new OC Klint Kubiak will follow more of his Vikings roots of hyper-targeting his WR1 or take a page out of his last coaching job (Kyle Shanahan’s pass game coordinator in SF) and spread the ball around to his top targets and have a more efficient offense. Bet on high volume.
A.T. Perry
Ryan here; Josh left this one for me since I’m an unabashed A.T. Perry fan. I certainly have a type at WR…and that type is tall. At 6’5, Perry fits the bill. I loved him before the 2023 Draft and thought the Saints were a good landing spot, but his 6th-round draft capital was a concern. He only ended up with 18 targets on the year but scored FOUR touchdowns on those limited looks. He is a red zone monster and could be the perfect 18th-round selection in Best Ball drafts.
Juwan Johnson
I’ve been waiting for the Juwan Johnson breakout for a couple of years. It still hasn’t happened. And now he’s dealing with a pretty serious foot injury on the eve of training camp. Don’t waste your time.
Taysom Hill
What is Taysom Hill? Regardless of what position he’s playing today, the real answer is a headache. He’s a gadget player who’s eligible as a TE and a QB (on Sleeper; a friendly reminder to always check your platform for potential cheat codes like Hill). But with Johnson being unreliable, the “TE” you really want in NO is Hill, even if he only lines up there a handful of times each week. When he’s in the game, the offense finds ways to utilize him. His spike weeks literally win you weeks, and there’s NO ONE in his range of ADP (currently TE39 in the 21st round) that has that upside. He’s worth a flier if only to sell after the first spike week when someone’s ready to blow their FAAB on someone who isn’t available.
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