Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Preview: Brock Bowers

I don’t recall a time in recent memory when NFL Draft hype and fantasy football average draft position failed to line up as they do with TE Brock Bowers. Heading into the draft, Bowers was called a “generational talent,” a term too broadly thrown around, but that is a fight for another day. Bowers’ college numbers certainly warranted the high praise, but after being selected by the Raiders, his stock seemed to plummet. He’s good enough to be called generational, but not to overcome the Las Vegas Raiders? With an ADP of TE11, there is far more reward than risk built into Bowers’ redraft cost, but does that mean you should target him in your drafts?

Brock Bowers 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

The Best College Tight End Ever?

In three seasons at the University of Georgia, Bowers put up an astounding 2538 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns. He even added 193 rushing yards and five more touchdowns. That’s over 2700 total yards and 31 TDs over three years. He is the only two-time winner of the John Mackey Award, given to the best tight end in college football each year. Interestingly, he won in 2022 and 2023, but his best year in college might have been his first year, with 900 total yards and 14 TDs.

Tracking down college stats specifically for the tight end position is challenging, to say the least, but Bowers has the accolades to claim the throne. As mentioned, he is the only two-time Mackey Award winner and was an All-American for all three of his seasons as a Bulldog. According to every advanced metric PFF offers, he is the best to do it in NCAA history.

The only knock on Bowers in the draft process was his size. This red flag became far more green when I looked for a size comparison and saw that Bowers has the exact same measurements as Sam LaPorta. In case you missed it, LaPorta was the best tight in fantasy last season…as a rookie. I don’t pretend to be a great film grinder—I don’t even watch college football—but when I watched Bowers’ tape, I immediately thought, “He’s a slow WR.” That’s hardly complimentary, but the good news is that he doesn’t play WR. As a tight end, he’s too big for corners and too fast and athletic for safeties. College success doesn’t automatically mean NFL success, but Bowers has the right foundation to succeed.

The Landing Spot

So, how do you kill the value of college’s greatest tight end? Put him in Las Vegas, apparently. In dynasty circles, Bowers was routinely mentioned as the third elite option in this class before the draft, behind only Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. Post-NFL Draft, and he is falling to 10th pick in some Superflex drafts. In Redraft leagues, he can currently be had as the 11th TE on most Best Ball boards. Is Vegas really that bad?

Starting at the top, you have a new offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, who came over from Chicago. In two years with the Bears, Getsy took Cole Kmet from the butt of every joke at Club Fantasy to a perennial top-10 tight end in fantasy. Kmet registered 1263 yards and 13 TDs in two seasons in this scheme. The touchdowns are even more impressive when you consider that Kmet managed just two scores total in his first two years in the league. If Getsy can make Cole Kmet a thing, I’m not sure why we’re doubting Bowers.

Maybe it’s the QBs? Either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell will lead the Raiders in 2024. In 2023, Minshew threw to his TEs 99 times on 490 passing attempts or a 20% target share. O’Connell only threw 343 passes, but 51 of those passes went to TEs for a 15% target share. Throw in Getsy’s 22% target share while in Chicago, and it’s pretty clear that no matter who is at QB, the team will target the tight end plenty.

So, if it’s not the scheme or QB, it must be the competition, right? Yes, Davante Adams exists, but even if you throw him the ball 180 times, there is still plenty left over for Bowers. Jakobi Meyers had some big games last year, but ultimately, he was barely a WR2 in fantasy with just over 100 targets. He now has competition in Bowers, not vice versa. At tight end, the Raiders used a second-round pick on Michael Mayer last year, but he struggled to win the starting job against Austin Hooper and garnered just 40 targets in 12 games. These are hardly threatening numbers.

What To Expect in 2024

In case you have not put it together yet, I think Brock Bowers could be very good for fantasy managers in 2024. You have an offense primed to target the tight end at least 20% of the time, and he is already the second-best receiver on this team behind Davante Adams. Mayer might still have a role as a more traditional TE, but Bowers is a natural receiver. He is the Cole Kmet of this offense…only MUCH, MUCH better.

The Raiders threw the ball 557 times last season, tied for 23rd in total passes. Even if that number stays exactly the same, Bowers could see 110 targets at a 20% share. Even at a 15% share, it’s 83 targets, which would have been 14th-most at the position last year. Let’s meet in the middle and say 96 targets. If we’re comping him to LaPorta, though he might be better, we’ll give him a 72% catch rate and 10.5 yards per catch, meaning Bowers finishes with 69 catches and 725 yards. Throw in a reasonable five TDs, and you get 167 PPR points, good enough for TE10 last year. That’s his floor. We’re drafting him at his floor.

If he hits his ceiling, say 120 targets—the exact amount LaPorta had in 2023—there is a non-zero chance Brock Bowers could be the best tight end in fantasy football come December. That’s called no risk-high reward, and it should be your goal with every pick you make in your fantasy drafts.

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A Look Inside the Las Vegas Raiders

Editor’s Note: While Ryan focused on Brock Bowers in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Raiders.

Gardner Minshew / Aidan O’Connell

You’re not even considering these guys unless it’s Superflex. However, I am an unabashed fan of Minshew Magic. I think he could do some special things with Davante Adams and Brock Bowers as his primary receivers. If he wins the job, expect to see him as a staple of my Stream of the Week column.

Zamir White

White played limited snaps last year behind Josh Jacobs but had some good games when Jacobs missed time. He finished the year with 4.3 yards per carry and respectable receiving numbers in a small sample size. The issue is that backup RBs are supposed to be more efficient. He had fresh legs when everyone else was 12 games in and battling fatigue and injuries. Can he do it for the long haul? I have no idea, and neither does anybody else, but he’s cheap enough to be worth the gamble.

Alexander Mattison

The cautionary tale for Zamir White is now his backfield mate. For his first two seasons as a backup to Dalvin Cook, Mattison averaged over 4.5 yards per carry and looked good when he filled in for Cook. As his workload grew, his efficiency shrunk, and he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry as the starter last season. Mattison looks more like a true backup than a complementary back at this stage of his career. Even if his numbers improve, he won’t see enough volume to pay dividends in fantasy.

Davante Adams

Father time is catching up to Adams, but he isn’t quite there yet. Adams was a top-10 receiver in 2023, finishing with 175 targets. Last season, Getsy as the OC in Chicago and Minshew as the QB in Indy hyper-targeted their best WR. We should see another top-15 year from Adams in 2024.

Jakobi Meyers

The real loser of the Brock Bowers sweepstakes might be Meyers. He played well last year as a second fiddle to Adams. It’s easy to be a WR2 when defenses have nightmares about your WR1. Meyers turned his 106 targets last year into a WR24 finish in fantasy. Expect a step back in 2024, as he loses valuable targets to Bowers.

Michael Mayer

Mayer might end up playing the exact same role in 2024 that he did as a rookie. In Getsy’s system, the backup tight end in Chicago saw the field but primarily as a blocker. Mayer is a good blocker, which is great for the Raiders and terrible for his fantasy outlook. Don’t expect more than the 40 targets he saw in 2023, and you won’t be disappointed.