The chants of “Let Russ Cook” probably haunt the Bronco’s fanbase to this day. The Denver franchise will attempt to pick up the pieces after a disastrous and costly 2022 acquisition of QB Russell Wilson didn’t go well at all. After two mediocre seasons and a $53 Million dead cap hit, the team has moved on from Wilson and just drafted a new hopeful franchise QB who will try to lead them back to their winning ways. This article will focus on the running backs though. Atop the depth chart is Javonte Williams, who is going into his fourth NFL season. I’ll review his career up to this point and discuss fantasy football expectations for 2024.
Javonte Williams 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Early Career Highs and Lows
Javonte Williams has had an up-and-down start to his career. He was selected by Denver in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft, pairing him up with veteran Melvin Gordon at the time. The fantasy community quickly fell in love with his efficiency. According to Player Profiler, he was a Top-10 RB in evaded tackles per touch and yards created per touch as a rookie. He put up a solid debut season, finishing as the RB17 while splitting touches with Gordon. His highlight of the year came in Week 13 against the Chiefs. Melvin Gordon was out, leaving the backfield all to Williams and he responded with 178 total yards and a TD. Going into his sophomore season, Williams skyrocketed up dynasty rankings and was viewed as a Top-10 RB by many in 2022.
Javonte Williams vs the Chiefs on SNF
23 carries
102 yards
4.4 YPC
6 rec
76 yards
12.7 AVG
1 TDPookie is back 😈 pic.twitter.com/P3N6qObiNq
— Michael 🇲🇽 (@RespectMyCos) May 15, 2023
It was “wheels up” once Melvin Gordon left Denver before the 2022 season, and Williams seemed poised to break out as the next great fantasy RB. Unfortunately, he ended up suffering a severe knee injury in Week 4, and his season was brutally cut short. Tearing an ACL is bad enough, but Williams tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL. In short terms, his right knee was completely shredded. We heard some positive reports about his recovery leading up to the 2023 season and he shocked the world by playing in Week 1, but was clearly not himself. After averaging 4.3 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two seasons, his efficiency fell to just 3.6 ypc last year. He had four Top-12 RB finishes for the year but was outside of the Top 24 in nine of his other twelve games.
RB Room Competition
Today, Williams is one of the more controversial fantasy players. Some have left him for dead, while others are still holding onto the hope that we had for him back in 2022. Broncos head coach Sean Payton hasn’t helped his case much. Every chance he gets to talk up one of the other RBs on the roster, he makes sure to let us know how much he loves them all for different reasons. Should we trust Javonte to lead this backfield in 2024?
First, let’s review the Denver running back depth chart. Behind Williams, they have second-year player Jaleel McLaughlin, who flashed as a rookie but is only 5’7″ and 187 pounds, making it hard to believe in his ability to ever lead a backfield. Next, we have two rookies: Audric Estime and Blake Watson. Both are late-round picks (Watson going undrafted) in a draft class that was already weak at the position. We will continue to hear buzz around them, but those types are profiles are long shots to ever rise to relevancy.
The last name that I’ll mention is journeyman Samaje Perine. That name doesn’t excite anyone, but he was used as the primary pass-catching back for Denver last season. Some beat reporters have speculated that Perine is a cut candidate. The team would save around $3 million with his release.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Broncos in this week’s episode!
2024 Outlook
While those are plenty of names to navigate, I don’t view any of them as a major threat to Williams’ potential workload. Even if he isn’t a three-down back, he still has a good chance to secure the passing downs role if Perine ends up as a cap casualty this summer. There should be plenty of RB touches to go around in Denver. Last season, they rushed the ball at the eighth-highest rate. With incoming rookie QB Bo Nix set to likely take the reins at some point, I don’t expect them to shift to a more pass-heavy approach any time soon.
Broncos RB pass-blocking snaps in 2023 (PFF)
Samaje Perine (52)
Javonte Williams (43)
Jaleel McLaughlin (5)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 13, 2024
Based on his 2022 injury, we should have seen Williams’ struggles coming in his first season back. It’s not fair to hold his inefficiency against him when he was fortunate just to be on the field last season. His ADP will be one to monitor closely, but Fantasy Pros currently has him going as the RB24 off the board. That’s in range with Austin Ekeler, Zamir White, Jonathan Brooks, and Zack Moss, who all have their own question marks around their role and/or health. While I can’t call him a “smash” pick due to the low expectations that I have for the Denver offense, I’ll gladly take the shot on him as my RB2 or 3 this redraft season.
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A Look Inside the Denver Broncos
Editor’s Note: While Drew focused on Javonte Williams in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Broncos from Josh Hudson.
Bo Nix
A controversial player coming into the 2024 NFL Draft, Bo Nix has his fans but also his detractors. But one thing is for certain: his skill set is PERFECT for a Sean Payton offense. There may not be a ton of talent on this Broncos offense, so fantasy points might not be plentiful for Nix. But all we need is for him to be a distributor in Year 1. And he’s plenty capable of that.
Jaleel McLaughlin
Size tends to matter in the NFL, whether we like to admit it or not. McLaughlin showed some juice last year but still finished 3rd among RBs on the Broncos in targets. As Drew mentioned above, Perine could be released during camp, which would open a role for McLaughlin. But until he learns how to pass block — he was used on exactly six snaps as a pass blocker compared to 54 for Perine and 48 for Williams — it’s hard to think he’ll see an increased workload from a year ago.
Samaje Perine/Audric Estimé/Blake Watson
Perine and the rookies, Estimé and Watson are battling for scraps if camp reports are to be taken seriously. Is there a chance Javonte Williams is the one traded prior to the season beginning? Sure. But under the assumption he remains the lead back, everyone else falls behind him and McLaughlin. These three are nothing more than bench depth and more likely waiver candidates.
Courtland Sutton
Arguably the most reliable weapon on this Broncos offense, Sutton had a solid, if underwhelming, season in 2023. His 10 TDs were awesome. His 90 targets and 59 catches were just meh. With Jerry Jeudy out of town, his competition for targets comes down to Tim Patrick (coming off another torn ACL), 2nd-year WR Marvin Mims, and rookie 4th-round pick Troy Franklin. Sutton’s current WR49 draft price is criminal for the amount of targets he can realistically see in 2024.
Marvin Mims Jr.
Mims was Sean Payton’s first draft pick as the head coach of the Broncos. That has to mean something…right? It didn’t mean squat in 2023, though. But with Jeudy now in Cleveland, Mims has a clear path to at least a 15% target share. Is he ready to step up? His current WR75 price tag is well worth the price of finding out.
Troy Franklin
The rookie was once thought of as a potential 1st round pick. A fall to the 4th round had many people calling it quits on Franklin. But then they saw the team he fell to, and they’re right back in. Franklin just has to have an average rookie season, and he could see 70 targets. If he has a Puka Nacua-type season and faults up the depth chart, he has league-winning upside as the current WR76.
Tim Patrick
Patrick is a Club Fantasy favorite, but after a second ACL surgery, time is running out. Little is known about how much Patrick has left, but the guy is a dog and can easily leapfrog the young pass catchers and be a reliable WR2 behind Sutton. And he’s currently going undrafted.
Greg Dulcich
People keep talking themselves into Dulcich, and on one hand, it makes sense. There’s no solidified 2nd target on this offense. Dulcich has the receiving profile that could command targets. What’s stopping him is health. He missed seven games in his rookie season and 15 last year. He’s free, so taking a chance costs nothing. But do you really want that headache?
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