On June 3rd, Justin Jefferson signed a 4-year, $140M contract extension with the Minnesota Vikings. That deal made him both the highest-paid wide receiver and the highest-paid non-quarterback player in the NFL. Of that of that $140M, $110M is guaranteed, making the contract a massive financial commitment from the Vikings to their best player and franchise cornerstone. He’s worthy of that level of commitment in fantasy football, as well.
Justin Jefferson 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
2023 Review
Jefferson entered the 2023 fantasy season as the (mostly-)unquestioned top non-QB in fantasy. Some argued for Ja’Marr Chase as the top dog, but Jefferson generally went first overall in non-Superflex drafts. Coming off a 2022 season in which he led the league in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1809), that distinction was well-warranted.
With 324 catches for 4825 yards, Jefferson has the most catches and yards of any receiver over their first three seasons. His track record heading into 2023 was unparalleled in league annals.
Jefferson’s season got off to the start everyone expected, with 33 receptions for 543 yards and three touchdowns through four weeks. But a funny (read: not funny, really sucky) thing happened in the first half of the Vikings’ Week 5 game against Kansas City. Jefferson pulled a hamstring and would end up missing the next seven games. To add insult to (literal) injury, while Jefferson was out, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles tendon and was lost for the season.
When Jefferson did return for the Week 14 (i.e., the final week of the fantasy regular season) game against the Raiders, he managed a mere two catches for 27 yards in the Vikings’ 3-0 “victory’. If you had been holding on to a thread of hope that his return could catapult you into the playoffs, that dud of a game likely put an end to those dreams. Fantasy season: kaput. Disappointment status: activated.
2024 Look Ahead
Jefferson was back to his old self once he was fully healthy. That fact may have been lost on fantasy players since it was unlikely they would end up making the playoffs with their first-round pick missing so much time. In four games, he produced 30 receptions, 476 yards, and two touchdowns. He put up those numbers with Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall at quarterback. Those stats provide hope that Jefferson can get back to being the most valuable fantasy player in the game.
Kirk Cousins is gone, signing a free-agent deal with Atlanta. To replace him, the Vikings drafted Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy with the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL draft, giving them their vaunted “QB of the Future”. Opinions on McCarthy’s NFL readiness are mixed. The Vikings also signed Sam Darnold in free agency. Darnold is the literal definition of an NFL journeyman QB at this stage of his career. However, even if McCarthy isn’t ready to start, Darnold should provide an upgrade on the QBs the Vikings were running out last season post-Cousins injury.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Vikings in this week’s episode!
Conclusion
If the reason Justin Jefferson has fallen behind Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase in early off-season Best Ball drafts is due to quarterback uncertainty, I think we (royal) may be throwing the baby out with the bath water. Kevin O’Connell’s offense has been a perfect match to Jefferson’s unique abilities. This scheme should continue to funnel him targets and opportunities to compile fantasy stats.
Obviously, we’re splitting hairs here a bit. Jefferson is certainly in a tier with the above-mentioned receivers, who are similarly uber-talented. None of them are bad options, and there probably isn’t a wrong answer to the question of “Who’s going to be the best wide receiver in fantasy this year?”. But if you’re trying to suss out the correct answer, don’t forget about the guy who everyone expected to be the choice last year.
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A Look Inside the Minnesota Vikings
Editor’s Note: While Joel focused on Justin Jefferson in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Vikings.
Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy
I wouldn’t be surprised if Darnold is the starter on Week 1, but the Vikings have a Week 6 bye. I can’t imagine McCarthy isn’t the starter by Week 7. You won’t want to have to rely on either, but McCarthy could be a serviceable Superflex QB3 if your other starting QBs have late byes.
Aaron Jones
Same as it ever was (in Green Bay): Productive when available but won’t get a full snap share. He’s also likely to miss several games due to injury.
Ty Chandler
Will be the beneficiary of the snaps Jones misses. He’s an active Zero RB target and Jones handcuff (for those into that kind of thing).
Jordan Addison
A promising rookie season tailed off post-Cousins. Did he hit the “rookie wall”? Will an improved QB situation get him back to the productivity level he displayed in early 2023? Either way, the encouraging thing about his season was he showed that he and Justin Jefferson can be productive at the same time.
T.J. Hockenson
Tore his ACL in the Vikings’ Christmas Eve game against Detroit. He’ll be a candidate to start the 2024 season on the PUP list. Thus, he can’t be expected to be his normal super-productive self when he does return. A fine dynasty stash, but you can’t go into the season counting on him to be your starting TE.
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