Despite Keenan Allen‘s consistent performance as one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football over the past few seasons, his move to Chicago raises questions about his future performance. Can Allen maintain his fantasy relevance in Chicago as he did in Los Angeles?
Join Club Fantasy’s newest member, @hoovtube, as he analyzes the potential fantasy impact for players like Keenan Allen in 2024 and explores the overall impact of the Chicago Bears offense for the upcoming season and beyond.
Keenan Allen 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
An Aging Legend
In my introduction, I emphasized Keenan Allen’s exceptional performance over the past few seasons. Allen finished as the WR8 overall in both half and full PPR leagues last season and was highly productive in 2022 for the games he was available. His talent speaks for itself when it comes to his ability to create separation on the field and generate plays for his quarterback.
He deserves recognition as a top-10 wide receiver, but it’s unlikely he would have commanded a career-high in receptions (108) if Mike Williams had stayed healthy. Allen is turning 32 this season and has undoubtedly established himself as one of the NFL’s premier route runners. He’s widely regarded as a future Hall of Famer. However, it’s hard to imagine him repeating that success with a new team at his age.
While Keenan Allen’s talent hasn’t waned, I anticipate a decline in his fantasy production as he adjusts to a new team and potential changes in offensive strategy. It’s common for wide receivers in their 30s transitioning to a new team and offensive scheme to experience reduced production. We saw this with receivers like Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Typically, the peak for NFL wide receivers is at 26 years old, with diminishing likelihood of a career-best season thereafter.
Better Competition for Targets
When considering drafting Keenan Allen in 2024, it’s important to note that he’s now sharing targets with another top-10 wide receiver, D.J. Moore. Moore finished as the WR6 in both half PPR and full PPR last season. Not only did Moore finish two spots higher than Keenan Allen, but he did so more efficiently. To put up the numbers he did, Allen also had to lead the league in routes per game (40.3%). In that category, Moore finished 20th overall at 34.8%.
It’s impressive that Allen led the league in the percentage of routes run at age 30 without a drop in production, but it’s also fair to say that this puts a lot of wear on Allen’s career going into 2024.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Bears in this week’s episode!
Personnel Issues
Keenan Allen’s performance stats reveal that he operated out of the slot in 58.2% of his routes, compared to 41% as an outside receiver. These numbers provide valuable insight into his role in the offense and his playing time in Shane Waldron’s system. Waldron’s offensive personnel groups primarily utilize 11, 12, and 13 personnel.
When discussing personnel, the first number denotes the number of running backs on the field; the second number indicates the number of tight ends. The 11 formation is used 64.2% of the time, the 12 formation 22.3%, and the 13 formation 8.8%. Notably, the use of three tight ends, although infrequent at around 9% of the time, ranked 2nd in the NFL. This formation pulls the slot receiver, Keenan Allen, off the field during those plays. In the event of injuries or similar issues with Chicago’s offensive line, Waldron will likely incorporate more tight ends in the offense to prioritize better blocking. This would potentially further reduce Allen’s playing time.
Better For Chicago Than Fantasy
Regardless, this trade has been an outstanding addition to Chicago. Allen’s leadership qualities will be pivotal in driving the culture change in Chicago. His presence will also offer invaluable mentorship to emerging talent like Rome Odunze.
While Keenan Allen will undoubtedly remain a valuable asset when given opportunities, he may likely see reduced playing time. This will be particularly true when the team opts for a two-tight-end formation. I would likely shy away from drafting Keenan Allen at his current ADP of WR27. Opt to draft Bears rookie WR Rome Odunze at his ADP of WR31 instead.
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A Look Inside the Chicago Bears
Editor’s Note: Although this article focuses on Keenan Allen, I believe it is best to see the fantasy football value of others in this offense and how others may benefit more from it than Keenan Allen.
Caleb Williams
I think Caleb Williams is underrated in dynasty leagues, especially with his current QB11 ranking on Sleeper. However, regarding the re-draft value for his ADP, he seems appropriately placed. He has a clear path to potentially throw for 4,000 yards in his rookie season, similar to C.J. Stroud‘s performance last year.
My only concern with Caleb Williams for his rookie season is what happens if the Bears fall behind the rest of the division early. Will fingers start being pointed? Like in most cases, the head coach will often point the finger at the offensive coordinator to provide some job security during times of struggle. If Waldron heavily leans into his tendencies of establishing the run, leading to the Bears falling short of their expectations for Williams’ rookie season, a change in leadership may hurt or help Williams’s fantasy re-draft value.
D’Andre Swift
Is it a good idea to be excited about drafting D’Andre Swift at this point? Considering his ADP of RB21 on Sleeper, it seems like he could be a valuable pick. Some fantasy managers may have concerns about Swift’s potential in Chicago, especially with the Bears aiming to achieve 4000 passing yards.
Nevertheless, it’s important to consider that this is a Shane Waldron-led offense. Waldron heavily relied on Kenneth Walker last year and emphasized the running game. Additionally, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks’ offensive line isn’t as effective as the Bears’.
D.J. Moore
In the 2023 season, Moore established himself as a top-tier wide receiver, finishing as the WR6 in both the PPR and Half PPR leagues. While some may doubt his ability to consistently achieve such impressive results, it’s crucial to recognize his exceptional talent and potential.
Considering the varying opinions about Justin Fields, it’s crucial to note Moore’s WR1 finish in 2023, especially with an improved quarterback situation in Chicago compared to his time in Carolina. Looking ahead, the opportunity to play alongside a quarterback with even greater abilities than Fields sets the stage for a highly promising future for Moore. If he continues to be undervalued, taking advantage of the opportunity to secure the “spread” receiver in Chicago’s offense could prove to be a savvy move for fantasy owners.
Rome Odunze
I wasn’t as high on Rome Odunze before the NFL Draft as other analysts. I believed in the other Washington receivers and their coaching and quarterbacking, which I thought might slightly impact Odunze’s draft profile when compared to Marvin Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers. However, after attending the NFL Draft representing Women of Fantasy Football & Club Fantasy and seeing Odunze in person, my perspective changed.
I was impressed by the leadership of Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze and I now clearly see the top-notch talent of Odunze. I’m pumped to see how they’ll develop together, and I think the sky’s the limit for this duo. Odunze’s killer route-running skills make him a threat anywhere on the field, but I think he’ll likely play as an outside receiver in his rookie season.
Cole Kmet
It can be challenging to evaluate Cole Kmet in fantasy football due to the abundance of options at the tight end position. Shane Waldron prefers using multiple tight ends. Although Waldron has a history with recently signed tight end Gerald Everett, it should not affect Kmet’s value. Kmet quietly ranked as a top-10 tight end in 2023. Under Waldron’s guidance, he is likely to finish in the back end of the top 10 this year as well.
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