The Atlanta Falcons once again found themselves outside of the playoff picture last season, finishing with a 7-10 record. They spent big money in free agency and brought in a new head coach to try and turn things around for 2024. There is much to learn about this new-look Falcons team, but I’m most interested in what this all means for Kyle Pitts and his fantasy football value.
Kyle Pitts 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Here we go Again
It’s summertime, which means we are once again asking ourselves if THIS is the year. Will we finally witness the much-anticipated Kyle Pitts breakout? Pitts came into the NFL as a “can’t miss” prospect, drafted out of the University of Florida as the fourth overall pick by Atlanta in 2021. That’s the highest that a TE has ever been drafted, so it’s understandable to have high expectations for a player like that.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Falcons in this week’s episode!
A History of Pitts
Pitts put together a solid rookie season, seeing 110 targets and going for 1,026 yards on 68 receptions. It was only the second time a rookie TE had over 1,000 receiving yards. At the time, no other rookie TE had even put up 800 yards since Jeremy Shockey did in 2002. Pitts was well on his way to a second-year breakout going into 2022 (or so we hoped). So what happened?
To put it simply, the 2022 Falcons offense was awful. They were the 4th-worst offense in total yards and the Marcus Mariota experiment was a major fail. The QB was outside of the top-25 QBs in Accuracy rating, deep ball completion %, and True Completion % (factors out throwaways) according to Player Profiler. Pitts 2022 season was eventually cut short by an MCL injury, but that environment was not a good one for any fantasy-relevant offensive production.
Kyle Pitts catchable pass rate/rank amongst TEs (min. 50 targets) year:
2021: 75% (24/25)
2022: 57% (34/34)
2023: 73% (31/31)Amongst QBs min. 300 paATTs over that span, Kirk Cousins‘ lowest catchable pass rate was 80%.
It’s time, folks.
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) March 12, 2024
The 2023 Falcons saw a slightly improved offense, but it was still a bottom-12 passing unit. We also were led to believe that Pitts was fully recovered from his 2022 MCL injury. Instead, we later learned that it was more serious than initially reported. We likely did not see a fully healthy Pitts all season as he put up another disappointing campaign with just 667 yards and finished as fantasy TE14. Is there reason to believe Year 4 will be any better after back-to-back dud seasons from the young TE? Let’s dig into his 2024 outlook.
2024 Outlook
Falcons owner Arthur Blank made it clear early on in the off-season that QB was going to be a major focus for the team. There was speculation of various rookie QB options or possibly a blockbuster trade for Lamar Jackson. However, when free agency opened up, they decided to back up the Brinks truck for Kirk Cousins. The former Minnesota Viking agreed to a 4-year $180 million deal to become the franchise QB for the Falcons. This should bring stability to the position, something Atlanta has lacked since prime Matt Ryan’s days. I’ve mentioned the high uncatchable target rate for Pitts being an issue; this is a solid way to address that.
Another obstacle that has been cleared out of Pitts’ way is former head coach Arthur Smith. Smith is infamous in the fantasy community for crushing the fantasy value of some of our favorite players. Jonnu Smith saw a career-high 70 targets in 2023. Not only did Smith eat up valuable targets, but he also was used more often in the short passing game. Compare that to Pitts, who led all TEs in air yards last season. A high aDOT (average depth of target) can be good for fantasy if your QB can deliver accurate passes. With poor QB play, it held Pitts’ production down while Smith soaked up the easy targets. With both Smiths moving on to new teams in 2024, Pitts should find much better opportunities.
There were 30 TEs with at least 42 targets during the 2023 season
Kyle Pitts was last with just 40.7% of his targets located 0-9 yards downfield
That number was even lower in 2022, at 37.5%
operation Get Pitts Gimmes in 2024 pic.twitter.com/WrrgYq9oTc
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) June 3, 2024
Conclusion
Falcons fans have reason to be excited about this upcoming season. New faces like Cousins and second-time head coach Raheem Morris bring something different to the table. They should also expect to see the best of incumbent pass catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts in this new offensive system. As long as we continue to see positive reports about his surgically repaired MCL, I’m willing to buy back in on Pitts finally becoming the fantasy star that we’ve been waiting for since 2021.
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A Look Inside the Atlanta Falcons
Editor’s Note: While Drew focused on Kyle Pitts in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Falcons from Josh Hudson.
Kirk Cousins
A healthy Cousins is good for fantasy football. He has been in some variation of this offense for twelve years and has produced at a high level every year. Is Year 13 a lucky year? In six of the last seven years, Cousins had had a 5.0% or higher passing touchdown rate. The team added Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore to allow for more effective 11 personnel to go with Drake London as the RB1. Add in Bijan Robinson at RB and Kyle Pitts at TE. If Cousins is healthy coming off the ruptured Achilles, a 30-TD season isn’t out of the question.
Bijan Robinson
If there’s any RB that has a shot at dethroning the de facto RB1, Christian McCaffrey, it’s Robinson. This offense, with first-time play caller Zac Robinson, is an extension of Sean McVay’s system with the Rams, which extends from Kyle Shanahan’s system in San Francisco. Rams’ RB Kyren Williams finished as the 2nd best RB in the NFL in total yards per game last year. You know who else was really good for McVay back in the day? Todd Gurley. Robinson will be used heavily as a runner and has shown great ability as a pass catcher. He’s my RB2 heading into 2024.
Drake London
For all the hype we bestowed upon Garrett Wilson when he got a QB upgrade heading into 2023, London hasn’t been treated with the same hype heading into 2024. Is this just course correction after Rodgers missed all by four snaps in 2023? London is currently WR10 in Underdog drafts, and when you look at the type of volume Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Justin Jefferson have received over the years, that feels like a value. The old 3rd year breakout should be London’s calling card in 2024.
Darnell Mooney
Mooney once saw 140 targets in a season and people anointed him as the next great WR. Fast forward to 2024 after two subpar years catching passes from Justin Fields, Mooney is more appropriately cast in a WR2 role opposite a bonafide WR1. Given how much Kirk Cousins is used to throwing, Mooney can easily hit 100 targets and 5 TDs, giving him weekly FLEX appeal during the season.
Rondale Moore
Remember when many thought Moore was too small to succeed in the NFL? They’re right, so far. He’s too small to block, so he gets pulled in obviously run situations, limiting the amount of routes he runs. His career high in targets is 64 during his rookie season, and he averages less than 9 yards per catch. He’s nothing more than a best ball dart throw, and I’d argue that sentence is even a stretch.
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