After finishing 2023 with the fourth-worst record in the league, The New York Giants look to bounce back in 2024. Despite drafting Malik Nabers, it’s easy to see many gaps in the roster. However, where negative perception exists, value can be found. This brings us to Wan’Dale Robinson in fantasy football.
Since being drafted in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Robinson has missed many games due to injury. When he has played, it’s often been in challenging circumstances, such as having Tommy Devito under center. Despite those challenges, Robinson finished WR58 last season, including a stint at WR51 during the second half of the season. While that can be hardly seen as elite, he finished the season as a fringe WR5 in 12-team leagues.
The interesting fact about Robinson is that his average draft position (ADP) is much lower than his 2023 performance suggests it should be. According to FantasyPros, he is currently being drafted as the WR75. On Underdog Fantasy, he is WR78. As such, he is one of the biggest values in drafts right now, particularly in a Best Ball setting.
Why?
Three reasons. First, he is due for touchdown regression after scoring only two touchdowns in two seasons. Second, this offense should be passing the ball more than it did in 2023. And third, the offensive line should improve after a historically bad season.
Wan’Dale Robinson 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Touchdown Regression
The New York Giants as a team have struggled scoring touchdowns through the air over the past two seasons. In 2022, they finished with the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns and the fifth-fewest in 2023.
Touchdowns are notoriously hard to predict, but what we do know is that players with statistical outliers tend to regress to the mean. The ten players closest to Wan’Dale Robinson in terms of routes run in 2023 averaged 3.6 touchdowns. That boost alone would have moved him to WR52 last season.
The Giants’ passing volume in 2023 made sense for a team that could rely on Saquon Barkley. But after trading away Barkley, the message seems to be clear. It’s time to pass the ball more.
Pass the Damn Ball
For a team that was losing as much as they were, the Giants ranked 27th in pass attempts in 2023. While their 518 pass attempts were comparable to their 2022 mark of 520, there is one big difference heading into 2024.
Their elite running back is now in Philadelphia.
The Giants’ offseason roster moves suggest they are going to pass the ball more, which will benefit the likes of Wan’Dale Robinson. If we assume the Giants pass the ball at a league-average rate, that amounts to approximately 580 pass attempts. Using Robinson’s 20% target share and near 80% catch rate, we would expect 92 catches, which would be a career-high.
Then, we add in some touchdown regression, enabling Robinson to score 4 touchdowns, and we have a WR39 season.
Is this the most thrilling outcome? Perhaps not. But could it win you a fantasy league? At his ADP, certainly.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Giants in this week’s episode!
Protect the Quarterback
None of this is going to be possible if Giants quarterbacks spend as much time on their backs as they did last season. Looking at their offseason moves might make it seem that they have done little to address the situation.
But the truth is, last season was a horrendous season for injuries. The Giants lost their All-Pro tackle, Andrew Thomas, and were on their third-string Center. It turns out that losing your best players hurts.
How bad? The Giants finished 2023 with the second-most sacks allowed of all time, according to StatMuse. They allowed nearly twice as many sacks as they did in 2022.
On top of increased passing plays overall, recording less sacks in general will result in increased targets for the likes of Robinson, further enhancing his potential upside.
Wrapping Up
Consider the other receivers being taken in the WR35 to WR50 range. This includes Ladd McConkey, Calvin Ridley, Rome Odunze, and Christian Watson, among others. Several of these players could fail, resulting in wasted picks, particularly in Best Ball.
Meanwhile, Wan’Dale Robinson is essentially free. He may even go undrafted in many leagues.
As such, he is a dart throw. But so is everyone at his ADP. He has already demonstrated he can outperform his ADP. With an improved offense, he can become a regular flex play that could make the difference in helping you win your league in 2023.
Be sure you’re following Austin on Twitter! You can also find more great fantasy football content here!
A Look Inside the New York Giants
Editor’s Note: While Austin focused on Wan’Dale Robinson in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Giants from Ryan Weisse.
Daniel Jones
Jones has two modes as of late: Bad or Injured. Neither works out well for fantasy managers. If he plays, he’s mobile enough to give some streaming upside in the right matchups, but he is untouchable in 1-QB drafts and best as a third option in Superflex.
Devin Singletary
In his one year with Houston, Singletary outplayed Dameon Pierce and finished as the RB32 in fantasy. With the Giants, he reunites with Brian Daboll, his former offensive coordinator. Singletary’s best fantasy season was 2021 with Daboll in Buffalo, and there is no great threat behind him on the depth chart. He could be a top-30 back again on volume alone.
Eric Gray / Tyrone Tracy
Singletary has never really been a workhorse, so one of these two could surprise fantasy managers. Gray was a 5th-round pick last year but didn’t play much as a rookie. However, early reports from OTAs are that he is seeing some first-team reps. Tracy is a converted WR who the Giants selected in the 5th Round this year. If Singletary is to be the primary runner, Tarcy could scoop up some valuable passing work. Neither is going in your draft, but either could be interesting on waivers later in the season.
Malik Nabers
The Giants made Nabers the 2nd WR off the board when they took him with the 6th overall pick back in April. He is extremely talented and his only red flag might be out of his own control: The NYG QB situation. He has big play ability but the Giants have given fantasy managers a truly valuable WR in years. He’s worth a flyer if you can land him past Round 9; otherwise, wait to grab him from waivers when an impatient manager inevitably cuts him.
Darius Slayton
Slayton has been the defacto WR1 in New York for years. While he has competition now, he also got a decent payday, seemingly signaling he’ll still be involved. He is, and always has been, a better Best Ball play than in a standard redraft, but he’s still worth no more than a 16-18th round pick.
Giants TEs
What. A. Mess. Darren Waller is contemplating retirement, and his backups are both former 4th-round picks most people have never heard of. Daniel Bellinger showed some promise in 2022 but was replaced by Waller in 2023. He should get the first crack at the job if Waller hangs them up. Theo Johnson has an athletic profile similar to Waller, so if the team wants a carbon copy, the job could be his. In other words, stay away on draft day and see if they pop up on my Stream of the Week list later.
Discover more from CLUB FANTASY FFL
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.