Not a whole lot went right for the New England Patriots last year, both in terms of fantasy and real-life football. As a Patriots fan who is in his early thirties, I’ve had a pretty nice run of teams over my lifetime, so by all means, I’m not asking for you to feel bad for me. What I do want to apologize for were all those wasted fantasy picks on people’s rosters last year.
Where did it all go wrong? The easy scapegoat is, unfortunately, probably the right answer: Mac Jones. Did the Patriots give Jones any real playmakers to have any chance of success? Absolutely not! Did Jones also get the yips mid-season and lose all confidence in himself to make the right throw, regardless of who he had to throw to? You betcha! Are Patriots fans excited that the Jones experiment is finally over? Boy howdy!
I hear you loud and clear through my laptop screen: Hey Matt, that’s all in the past! Jones is no longer on the team anymore so you’re beating a dead horse! How does any of this apply to the 2024 fantasy football outlook of the Patriots? Patience, dear reader. Let’s dive into the biggest benefactor of Jones’ permanent trip down to Jacksonville: Rhamondre Stevenson!
Rhamondre Stevenson 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Explaining What Happened in 2023
If you were to go back a year in a time machine from today, Rhamondre Stevenson was all the rage as a fantasy football sleeper at running back. Damien Harris, his longtime partner in the Patriot’s backfield, was off to Buffalo, so the backfield was his. Mac Jones was going to shake off his jitters and be a productive quarterback, leading a Patriots’ offense that couldn’t possibly get worse than it was in 2022. With this optimism, our featured back was going off the board as the RB13. Life was good! So what happened?
Well, much like the rest of the Patriots, Stevenson underperformed. In fairly standard scoring, he finished the year as the RB29 on a points-per-game basis. It turns out that Ezekiel Elliott was more of a vulture than we initially thought he’d be. And have I mentioned that the Patriots’ quarterback position was atrocious (looking at you, Jones, and Bailey Zappe)? As the entire offense failed, the opportunities for touchdowns/yards from extended drives simply didn’t exist.
Why I’m Excited for 2024
So why am I excited for Stevenson’s 2024 season? Two words: reset expectations. As of right now, Stevenson is coming off the board as the RB20, which is a much more realistic expectation than the lofty RB1 draft capital he was being drafted at last year. For what you’ll have to use to acquire him, you’ll have a much greater chance of reaping the rewards of that investment. I’d much rather draft Stevenson as my RB2/RB3 and go into the year with those expectations.
Speaking of expectations, the Patriots offense looks a lot different than it did a year ago. Mac Jones will be replaced by some combination of Jacoby Brissett or the newly drafted Drake Maye, with either expected to be an improvement on the previous starter. There are playmakers at WR, and the offensive line is improved. In general, a better offense will lead to more opportunities for Stevenson to rack up those stats.
Ezekiel Elliot is also now gone, being replaced by the former Washington Commander Antonio Gibson. The skillsets of Stevenson and Gibson are so different that I don’t expect to see as much “vulturing of touches” as we saw with Elliot last year. For those keeping track at home, Elliott actually out-snapped Stevenson 22 to 19 in the red zone. When it comes to goal-line touches (which I swear the Patriots will actually have this year), Stevenson is now the unquestioned guy.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Patriots in this week’s episode!
Don’t Write Off the Patriots’ Offense Just Yet!
Look, I understand people’s hesitation with the Patriots’ offense on the whole. There’s a new head coach, a new QB room, and a whole lot of uncertainty. One thing that can NOT be disputed is who the RB1 is over in Foxboro.
I’m excited for Rhamondre Stevenson in fantasy football because he’s still got a ton left in the tank! First off, he’s only 26 years old and is only entering his fourth year in the league, so there’s plenty of tread left on those tires. Secondly, even though he had a bad year, Stevenson still averaged 4.0 yards per carry and tacked on 38 receptions in 2023.
Couple that same stat line with a few more goal-line touches for touchdowns, and we’re cooking with some gas! Go and draft him as your RB2 and reap the rewards of the year we all thought we’d be getting last year. Go Pats!
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A Look Inside the New England Patriots
Editor’s Note: We don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. While Matt focused on Rhamondre Stevenson in fantasy football, here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Patriots from Ryan Weisse.
Jacoby Brissett / Drake Maye
It is likely to be a rough year for the New England QB position in fantasy. To start, who is going to start? It’s likely we’ll see Brissett for a month and then Drake Maye to finish the season. While the WR room is improved, there is still no proven WR1, and that is not a recipe for fantasy success. Both QBs can run, so there could be streaming upside in the right matchup, but they both belong on waivers in all 1-QB leagues.
Antonio Gibson
While Gibson and Zeke are about the same size, they play the game very differently. Gibson is not going to take short yardage to work away from Stevenson, which likely means goal-line touches are going to Stevenson as well. However, Elliott also finished last season with 14 more targets than Stevenson, and that is a role that Gibson will be very comfortable taking over. Expect a similar passing split to last year and a workload similar to what Gibson saw in Washington. He’s an RB3 in PPR leagues, but his upside is capped.
Ja’Lynn Polk / Javon Baker
It’s always hard to trust rookie WRs, and that gets even harder when the team has a rookie QB, too. Neither WR was drafted particularly high, but both had some pre-draft buzz. Throw in the fact that the team will be run-heavy, and it becomes increasingly difficult to see the upside in either in 2024. Keep an eye on training camp reports; if one or both start to show out, they might be worth your last roster spot as a lottery ticket.
Demario Douglas
Douglas is interesting because he led the team in receiving last year, though with ZERO receiving TDs. Due to that lack of scoring, he didn’t even crack the top 50 in fantasy scoring. He could once again lead this team in targets, but unless he starts scoring, there is no reason to draft him in fantasy.
Hunter Henry
After the first two weeks last season, Henry was the TE1 in fantasy and looked like the best receiver in New England. He scored 34 fantasy points in those games but went on to score just 86 the rest of the season. Looking back, he was carried by just five good games. He is a great streaming option in the right matchup, but like every other non-RB Patriot, he is not worth a draft pick in redraft leagues.
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