Fantasy football managers love themselves some targets. Why? Volume. And volume is king in fantasy football. When players have opportunity, they have a higher likelihood of scoring more fantasy points. For four straight seasons, Diontae Johnson led the Pittsburgh Steelers in targets per game. That’s the good. The bad? He has one 1,000-yard season in his career and went more than a calendar year without scoring a touchdown.
So why is there reason to be optimistic about a high-volume wide receiver who is now playing for what was the worst offense in the NFL last year?
I’m glad you asked.
Diontae Johnson 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Volume is King
Since the year 2020, Diontae Johnson ranks 6th among wide receivers in targets, behind only Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. Johnson ranks 10th in targets per game (8.97). He also ranks 11th in total receptions (332).
Johnson did all that in one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Steelers ranked 15th, 15th, 24th, and 25th in passing offense since 2020. And here are the names of the quarterbacks who attempted passes for the Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Joshua Dobbs, Kenny Pickett, and Mitchell Trubisky.
So is volume really king even if it’s coming from a Who’s Who of crap quarterbacks?
Fantasy Points Were Scarce
While Johnson has seen a large amount of targets and volume, they haven’t led to much in the way of fantasy points. Since 2020, Johnson has finished as the WR21, WR8, WR28, and WR44. His points per game (PPG) finishes were T-WR21, WR9, T-WR43, and WR41.
Johnson went more than a calendar year without scoring a touchdown. And he still averages five touchdowns a season. But that puts him far behind guys like Adams (51), Tyreek Hill (44), Diggs (37), Lamb (32), Jefferson (30), and Cooper Kupp (30).
Touchdowns certainly add to a player’s fantasy value. And in PPR formats, receptions play a huge role as well. Johnson ranks 14th in receptions per game but ranks 32nd in receiving yards per game. And all that has translated into 13.60 PPR fantasy points per game, which ranks 27th among WRs.
Diontae Johnson is a WR3 in terms of fantasy football. Now allow me to offer some optimism as to why that will be changing in 2024.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Panthers, Commanders, and Cardinals in this week’s episode!
New Offense, Who Dis?
This offseason, the Carolina Panthers hired former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales as their new head coach. Canales’ most important job? Fix former number-one overall pick, QB Bryce Young. And the first thing Canales and new GM Dan Morgan did was swing a trade to acquire Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Canales’ offense last year featured two pass catchers with target shares eclipsing 20% or more. When he was the QB Coach in Seattle, the Seahawks had similar results.
In Seattle, Canales had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf, playing the traditional X, is listed at 6’4″ and 235 pounds. Lockett, playing the Z, is listed at 5’10” and 182 pounds.
In Tampa, Canales had Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans, the X, is listed at 6’5″ and 231 pounds. Godwin, the Z, is listed at 6’1″ and 209 pounds.
In Carolina, Canales didn’t have much to work with. Adam Thielen was the Panthers’ leading receiver last season at 33 years old. He’s more of a Z at 6’2″ and 195 pounds. But age is working against him. So Canales went for someone who can be a cog in his offense for the next few seasons. That man is Diontae Johnson. Then, he turned around and drafted Xavier Legette from South Carolina.
Legette is listed at 6’1″ and 221 pounds. Johnson is listed at 5’10” and 183 pounds. If Legette grows into the X, Johnson fits more as a traditional Z. The good news? The Z in Canales’ offense sees targets. A lot of them.
Lockett saw 117 targets in 2022. When Canales was the Passing Game Coordinator in Seattle in 2020 and 2021, Lockett saw 132 and 107 targets, respectively. Lockett never had less than a 20% target share and he topped 1,000 yards in each season. He also scored 27 touchdowns over those three seasons.
When Canales got to Tampa, he had Chris Godwin coming off 127 targets and 142 targets, respectively. In 2023, Godwin had 130 targets and a 22.89% target share. In the two seasons prior, Godwin had over 1,000 yards in each season and averaged over 100 receptions.
If Canales’ offense is the hand, Johnson is the glove that fits it so well.
Fixing a Broken Quarterback
In 2022, as the QB coach of the Seattle Seahawks, Dave Canales worked magic on a washed-up Geno Smith and turned him into a Pro Bowl QB. He threw for over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns. That led him to be named as the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he would work with former number-one overall pick Baker Mayfield.
The Bucs would represent Mayfield’s 4th team in three years, with previous stops at Cleveland, Carolina, and Los Angeles (Rams). Mayfield would also represent a new reclamation project for Canales. And Mayfield delivered a Pro Bowl season.
After back-to-back seasons of turning reclamation projects into Pro Bowlers, the Panthers saw everything they needed to feel that Canales was the man who could fix Bryce Young. And every move the Panthers have made this offseason has been with Bryce Young in mind. And getting Diontae Johnson was step one.
In free agency, they added two starting Guards, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. During the NFL Draft, Carolina spent a first-round pick on Legette. They followed that up with drafting RB Jonathon Brooks and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders.
It’s a young offense, but the pieces are in place. And the Bryce Young resurgence is en route.
What Can Johnson Do For You?
That subheading would’ve been catchier if I were talking about Johnson’s predecessor in Pittsburgh, Antonio Brown, but I digress.
With everything I just laid out about Dave Canales’ offense, it’s pretty clear how great of a fit Diontae Johnson is for the Carolina Panthers. He could be staring down the barrel of a greater than 24% target share season, especially with an unpolished rookie WR not likely to command a 20% or more target share in this offense.
Canales’ offenses hover around 33 pass attempts per game. At around 561 attempts, a 24% target share is around 135 targets. If Johnson matches his career catch percentage of 61.2%, he’ll have around 83 receptions. His career 11.2 yards per reception would put him around 930 receiving yards. And we’ll take his average of five touchdowns into account.
So an 83/930/5 line for a WR is pretty much on par with a WR3 season. That stat line would’ve been WR34 last season. Kinda boring, huh?
Now let’s actually project Diontae Johnson on the Panthers. I currently have the Panthers at 569 pass attempts. Young averaged 32.94 pass attempts per game as a rookie. He’s not afraid to throw the football. As a result, I bumped up the Panthers passing game just a bit.
Johnson’s target share could even be higher than the projected 24%. I’ve already established that Adam Thielen is old. He’ll be 34 when the season starts and was brought in by the previous regime. He might be the Panthers WR2 by default, but the team brought in Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette for a reason. Thielen is a stop-gap until Legette matures as a WR. As a result, I split the difference between them, giving Legette a 17% target share and Thielen roughly 15% since there’s no legitimate TE option to steal targets.
I have Johnson currently projected for 141 targets and a 62% catch rate. I also have him at 12.3 yards per reception. It’s a step up from his career average and a step down from his career high of 14.1 in 2023. Coincidentally enough, Lockett and Godwin both finished with 12.3 yards per reception in back-to-back seasons in this offense. So let’s go for the trifecta.
As for touchdowns, I went with six, showing some optimism that Johnson can exceed his career average.
This would put Diontae Johnson at 233 fantasy points. Stacking that against last year’s fantasy finishes, Johnson would have been WR16, just above Chris Olave of the Saints and new teammate Adam Thielen.
Always Buy Volume
Diontae Johnson sees targets. Targets are good. Quality targets are better. And since Dave Canales knows how to fix suspect quarterbacks, expect plenty of quality targets in 2024.
And since you can get a WR who commands a lot of targets as your WR4, you have a built-in WR2 upside for the price of a 7th or 8th-round pick. That’s how you win while playing fantasy football.
Be sure you’re following Josh Hudson on Twitter. You can also find more great fantasy football content here!
A Look Inside the Carolina Panthers
Editor’s Note: We don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. While Josh focused on Diontae Johnson in fantasy football, here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Panthers from Ryan Weisse.
Bryce Young
It was a rough rookie year for Young. His final stat line of 2,877 yards and 11 touchdowns was good for just a QB23 fantasy finish. More concerning might be his 59% completion rate. The Panthers have put a better team around him, but he will need to make a big leap to be relevant in one-qb leagues.
Jonathon Brooks
Brooks was pretty much the consensus best back in this draft class, but a 2023 ACL injury was a red flag. It appears he’ll be ready for the preseason, and while the Carolina backfield is crowded, the talent is questionable. Brooks could be a Day 1 starter, but volume might be harder to come by in 2024.
Miles Sanders / Chuba Hubbard
The fact that the team spent a 2nd-round pick on an RB coming off an ACL injury should tell you all you need to know about these two. They split time last year and will now split a piece of a smaller pie. If Brooks is ready to go, neither Sanders nor Hubbard carry much fantasy value.
Adam Thielen
The resurgence of Adam Thielen was a pleasant surprise in 2023, but now he’s another year older and has competition for targets. We saw a steep drop in the second half of last season, with the receiver only hitting 75-plus yards once and scoring no touchdowns after Week 8. Now playing second-fiddle to Diontae Johnson, don’t expect another top-30 season.
Xavier Legette
Legette has the build to be an NFL WR at 6-foot-1, 220 lbs. He’s raw with only one season of college production but has the tools to develop into a fantasy-relevant WR. He should immediately claim the third-WR spot in Carolina but will need to pass Thielen in targets to pay dividends in 2024.
Ja’Tavion Sanders
It’s impossible to trust rookie TEs, but Sanders has two things going for him. First, he’s athletic and a receiver first. The team will not be asking him to block when he is on the field. Second, there’s not much talent ahead of him. He only needs to beat Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas to become the starter, and that is no Herculean task.
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