The Rams took Blake Corum with the 83rd pick of the NFL Draft recently. He’s a big name and a recently crowned NCAA Champion. It’s led to pandemonium in the Twitter streets (or “X,” I guess) amongst the fantasy community. Opinions are flying about Kyren Williams, from things like “he’s not a top-10 RB anymore” to “Blake Corum is now the guy and is going to get more work than Kyren” to “Kyren is now irrelevant.” Let’s take a step back, breathe, and assess first. Kyren Williams was wonderful for the Rams offense and in fantasy football. He should still be wonderful (at least this year). Read this article before you panic-sell him in your dynasty leagues or disregard him in redraft.
Fantasy Football Expectations for Kyren Williams in 2024
A Look at Last Year
Williams had an incredible 2023 season. He sent Cam Akers packing and did not look back. In only 12 games last year, Williams was the RB7 in fantasy. What’s even more impressive is that he was the overall RB2 in points per game (PPG) last year. Williams averaged 21.2 PPG and was closer to the RB1 (CMC) than the RB3 (Kamara) was to Kyren. He did this and was only 13th in total attempts (228) and 24th in targets (48). Remember, he missed a month and was rested in Week 18. Imagine what he can do in a fully healthy 16/17 game season.
Williams was so successful last year because of how elite he was inside the 10-zone (goal-to-go opportunities). Inside the 10-zone, he had the most yards in the NFL and it wasn’t even close. He had 97 yards on 32 attempts and 11 TDs. Inside the 5-zone, he also had the most yards despite not being top-5 in carries. This screams efficiency. And with RBs with more than 12 attempts inside the 10 and more than five attempts inside the 5, nobody averaged more yards per carry. The numbers per attempt back up that efficiency too.
The team needed to get better
The Rams were 12th in team rush attempts with 477 last year, but that should go up, too, with moves the Rams have made this offseason. They paid LG Jonah Jackson $51 million and gave another $48 million to re-sign RG Kevin Dotson. They are moving promising rookie LG Steve Avila, who was great last year, to Center. That means with the three-interior lineman, the Rams will be at about 1000 total pounds of force. That’s a mean front. They are going to move some people. Add in Colby Parkinson (PFF’s 5th-rated run-blocking TE). This will make the play-action game with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp even more lethal. This offense will be a top-5 offense, thanks to the predicted running game. So why are people freaking out about the Blake Corum pick?
Well, Blake Corum was a legend as a Michigan Wolverine. He had over 2,700 yards rushing and 45 touchdowns in the last two years. Michigan was the CFP National Champion last year. He’s a marquee name. He also has similar traits to Kyren Williams. So, I can see why the Rams taking Corum is noteworthy. However, he was a borderline end-of-round-3 pick.
We’re not talking about a first-round pick. He also wasn’t even one of the first two running backs off the board (he was third). This isn’t a James Robinson situation where the Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence’s longtime teammate, Travis Etienne, in the first round to replace James Robinson. The Rams didn’t pay a top-of-market RB to come and replace Kyren (like the Broncos did with Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay). Williams also didn’t lose his job as Dameon Pierce did to Devin Singletary. The situation is totally different than the examples being thrown out.
Also, Williams only had 228 attempts of the 477 team rush attempts. Ronnie Rivers, Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman, and Cam Akers combined for about 40% of the team’s total rush attempts. They also had 14 total attempts in the 10-zone. Spoiler alert: They weren’t good. All running backs not named Kyren Williams last year were incredibly inefficient for the most part (average at best). The Ram’s offense suffered big time, too, when Williams missed four games. The team scored 57 points in those four games and went 1-3. Williams came back, and the offense scored 37, 36, 31 (against Baltimore), 28, 30, and 26 to close the season. He was the engine that made the offense hum. So, of course, the Rams needed a better RB to keep him fresh and protect against injuries.
A look at 2024
Corum could take all that work from non-Kyren RBs and have a good 160-190 carries. That’s a healthy 9-12 carries-a-game. And for an RB, that is pretty good. Kyren Williams could still then have 240-ish carries in a healthy season. He only had 32 receptions, so he did not rely that heavily on targets either, so if Corum sees a lot of third downs (he’s a great pass blocker, in my opinion), that won’t matter that much in the grand scheme of things. The bread and butter for Kyren Williams is the efficiency and the touchdowns. Those will vault him into a possible top-5 season for the Rams, with a floor of maybe top 10-15.
We will see where his ADP ends up as we get further into redraft season in a few months. The purpose of this article, though, is to get everyone who has Kyren Williams shares to pause, reflect, and assess the situation. He’s not a sell. I believe he’s a buy if you are a contender. See if you can get shares of him for a cheaper value than you could have about a week ago. Because through the smoke, 2023 Kyren Williams is still there and is still the RB1 in LA. The Rams are Super Bowl contenders. Dynasty is played in a 2 to 3-year window. Buy shares of him this year and sell shares of him next year if you need to. Wait to sell shares at the deadline if you aren’t contending. Just don’t sell your shares right now. Don’t panic on Kyren Williams!