We’re less than a week away from the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit, Michigan, and the rumor mill has never been running stronger. While there’s no real debate on who the number-one overall pick will be, after that, it could be anyone’s game. Huge trade packages in the top five could (and likely will) happen; it’s just a matter of who decides to take the bait!
Truly, this is one of the stronger drafts we’ve seen in a long time as far as offensive talent, so this draft will likely have huge implications for your fantasy football teams. To create this mock draft, I’ve looked at a variety of factors, the biggest one being Vegas odds and movement. I’ve also used the draft guide from PFF.com and Footballguys.com, used information from various insiders throughout and league, and, as always, listened to my gut. Now that you know a little behind the methodology, let’s break down some predictions as we near one of the biggest nights of the NFL offseason.
2024 NFL Mock Draft
1. Chicago Bears- Caleb Williams, QB, USC
This one should come as no surprise. Williams is a generational prospect, and while some thought the Bears would trade out of the top spot a few months ago, those rumors came to a halt after they traded Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’ve also done one of the better jobs in free agency by bringing in wide receiver Keenan Allen, so it’s all but set in stone that Chicago will take Williams here. So what can you expect from him in fantasy?
Well, it’s all going to come down to how much the Bears do to improve their offensive line. The Bears ranked 23rd in pass blocking in 2023, and while Williams is STELLAR in a clean pocket (ranking first in the NCAA last year), he struggles when pressured. That said, he’ll definitely be playing with a better-supporting cast on both sides of the ball than he had at USC last year and should be the consensus 1.01 in dynasty leagues.
2. Washington Commanders- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
After Williams comes off the board, it gets a little tighter at quarterback, although over the past week or so, the odds have widened in favor of Jayden Daniels going at the number-two pick. There’s no denying that Daniels has incredible deep-ball accuracy and strength, but the big knock on him is his slender frame and concerns over his durability. The Commanders’ offensive line allowed the second-most sacks in the league in 2023, so that is something they will have to improve upon with their new quarterback, but Daniels has shown an ability to make plays when pressured both with his arm and his legs. A more accurate deep ball passer would definitely up the fantasy value of Terry McLaurin, but he’ll have to stay healthy to make me comfortable in investing a high draft pick on him in dynasty.
3. New England Patriots- Drake Maye, QB, UNC
After losing out on Jayden Daniels, the Patriots are taking the next-best quarterback on the board with Drake Maye. To be honest, they could do much worse. Maye ranked ninth out of all NCAA quarterbacks in 2023 in passing grade, third in deep-passing grade, ninth in no-pressure grade, and 26th in pressure grade (according to PFF). He’s the perfect piece for Jerod Mayo’s new regime in New England IF they can get a supporting cast around him. Because, let’s be honest, they’re a little lacking in the talent department in the wide receiver room. I don’t expect Mayo to adopt a West Coast-style offense on this team, so it could be several seasons before he returns any usable fantasy value, but as a prospect, he is one of the best on the board this year.
4. Arizona Cardinals- Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Okay, now here’s where I was really waffling. There have been rumors since the end of last season that the Cardinals would be willing to trade their pick for a hefty package. The issue here is that I think the cost is too prohibitive, with reports that they’re asking for three first-round picks in exchange for the chance to move up. There are other teams asking a little less, and it just makes the trade seem too much for me. With that, I think Arizona stays put and drafts wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
There’s not much that you can critique this guy for, as he’s improved every single season, and he’s one of the most complete prospects you will find as far as NFL readiness is concerned. His deep ball ability is nearly unmatched, with him ranking fourth in deep yards and tied for third in deep catches. This is exactly the kind of player Kyler Murray needs in the offense to complement Trey McBride’s short routes now that Marquise Brown is gone. As tempting as the trade rumors are, I’m going with the chalk here.
5. Minnesota Vikings trade with Los Angeles Chargers- J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
You know how I just mentioned there are other teams that would be willing to trade down for a cheaper package than the Cardinals are asking for? Enter the Los Angeles Chargers. This is where I think the Minnesota Vikings find their sweet spot and trade the 11 and 23 in order to move up and snag Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Yes, you can dog McCarthy’s stats and say that he’s a product of the system, but that particular system is perfect for Minnesota. Kevin O’Connell loves to run play-action, and McCarthy has a pristine track record with that style of play, ranking first among all quarterbacks in 2022 and completing over 76% of his play-action passes in 2023. With the upgrade in weapons in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, not to mention T.J. Hockenson when he returns from injury, McCarthy is a no-brainer to be in purple and gold.
6. New York Giants- Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants are another team rumored to be in the mix to trade up for a quarterback, but I don’t think they have the assets to do it. Instead, they give Daniel Jones one more whirl to see if he’s worthy of that huge contract and give him a little help this go around with Malik Nabers out of LSU. Nabers is one of the best in shaking off tackles and gaining deep yards and has a versatile route tree to shake off any would-be defender. The issue with his fantasy value is the specter over Jones and his ability to throw deep, but he hasn’t really had more than a stable of slot receivers for the past two years, so Nabers would allow him to take a bigger leap and show that he really can be a franchise quarterback.
7. Tennessee Titans- Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Although I do think Alt could be in play if the Chargers don’t trade out of the fifth pick, in this current scenario, I think he’s a lock to go to Tennessee. The Titans’ offensive line ranked 24th in pass blocking and 18th in run blocking in 2023, and Alt would provide some immediate improvement on both fronts. Over the past two seasons, Alt has allowed one total sack and just thirteen total pressures. If new head coach Brian Callahan is rolling out second-year man Will Levis, he’s going to need protection, and Alt provides that in spades.
8. Atlanta Falcons- Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
After getting quarterback sewn up in free agency with the acquisition of Kirk Cousins, now is the time to focus on defense, and there’s no better guy who fits their needs than edge rusher Dallas Turner from Alabama. The Falcons’ defense ranked 27th in pressures in 2023, and Turner would be an immediate impact player, much like his former teammate Will Anderson Jr. was for the Houston Texans last season. Turner was tied for 11th in sacks, 16th in hurries, and 17th in hits, and he would be a huge piece in making the Falcons a complete team on both sides of the ball.
9. Chicago Bears- Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Here we come to a crossroads; do the Bears get an offensive lineman to protect their number one pick, or do they get him a weapon? Judging by what they’ve done in the offseason, I think they lean toward another weapon and select wide receiver Rome Odunze out of Washington with the ninth-overall pick. Along with his deep ball ability (where he ranked first in both catches and yardage), Odunze also ranked first in contested catches with 21 over the course of last season. It would be nearly impossible for opposing defenses to figure out their coverage between him, DJ Moore, and Keenan Allen, giving Williams a plethora of options in the receiving game.
10. New York Jets- Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
While offensive lineman is still on the table for the Jets as well, the addition of star tackle Tyron Smith in free agency makes this less of a priority. That’s why I think they go with a generational prospect in Brock Bowers out of Georgia. Bowers is truly a unicorn, finishing with 882 yards as a true freshman; he followed that up with back-to-back John Mackey Awards as a sophomore and junior. He is a true dual-threat tight end with excellent blocking skills, strong hands, and ability to gain yards after the catch, and we know how Aaron Rodgers can get attached to a good tight end. My money is on A-Aron getting his way on this one.
11. Los Angeles Chargers trade with Minnesota Vikings- Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon State
They may have traded down out of the fifth spot, but the Chargers are still coming away with a critical piece for a Greg Roman offense in offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga. He has the ability to play at tackle or guard (even if his college numbers show him strictly at right guard), but his 90.9 run-blocking grade is what really intrigues me, especially after the Chargers just signed J.K. Dobbins. You know they’re going to be run heavy in this system, and now with pick 23 courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings, they can address wide receiver later in the first round. With the 32nd-ranked run-blocking defense in the NFL in 2023, this is a position they HAVE to correct here.
12. Denver Broncos- Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Some may say this is a little high for a quarterback, and the Broncos may indeed be in a position to trade down, but even if they do, I think they end up with Bo Nix in the first round. He could be looked at in the second round, but seeing as they don’t have one currently, I think they pay up to secure their franchise quarterback. Nix has all the traits Sean Payton likes in a quarterback, including processing time, arm strength, and the ability to scramble out of pressure when necessary. His age is a little concerning, as he is a six-year “super senior,” but that may actually benefit him. It could take him a few years to develop, so you’re not going to be targeting him in redraft leagues, but he could provide some value in dynasty formats.
13. Las Vegas Raiders- JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Much like the Broncos, the Raiders should be targeting a quarterback; however, unlike the Broncos, they actually have a second-round pick. That’s why I think they opt to go with offensive lineman JC Latham out of Alabama. Latham also has some versatility as a guard and tackle, and he finished 2023 with an overall grade of 81.9, according to PFF.com. While he didn’t test at the combine, his measurements alone make him a coveted prospect, as he came in around the 90th percentile or above in weight, arm length, and hand size. You might see Las Vegas opt to go for a cornerback here instead, but if they’re looking at quarterback in the second (*cough, Michael Penix, Jr.), they’ll start by shoring up their offensive line.
14. New Orleans Saints- Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Continuing the offensive line streak, the Saints select offensive tackle Troy Fautanu from Washington. His versatility alone makes him a coveted prospect, but when you look at what he was able to do at his size, it sweetens the deal. His pure athleticism can’t be taught, so although he may need some molding at the next level, he should be able to adapt quickly. The Saints ranked 25th in run blocking and 26th in pass blocking in 2023, so bringing in a stud in the trenches should result in immediate offensive improvement across the board.
15. Indianapolis Colts- Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
I’ve had this pick locked in for a long time after how poor the Colts’ secondary looked last season. Any other year, we’d be looking at Mitchell to be a potential top-ten pick, but there is SO MUCH offensive talent on the board this year that the Colts get a steal with the cornerback out of Toledo. While he didn’t repeat 2022’s interception numbers in 2023, he locked down his coverage, not allowing a single touchdown in 2023, and that is EXACTLY what this secondary needs. His 91.5 coverage grade, along with his 88.7 man coverage grade, will immediately improve this defense.
16. Seattle Seahawks- Jackson Powers Johnson, C, Oregon
The Seahawks signed former fifth-round center Nick Harris in free agency from the Cleveland Browns this offseason, but in my opinion, that seems to be more of a depth piece than anything. In 2023, Seattle ranked 28th in pass-blocking and 15th in run-blocking, so to give their offense a chance in a stacked NFC West, they’re going to need to go for some better talent on this offensive line. Enter Jackson Powers-Johnson out of Oregon. Even if they don’t need him at center, Powers-Johnson has the versatility to play across the offensive line, and he’s a UNIT, coming in at over 320 pounds. He never allowed a sack in his last three years at Oregon, and, in fact, only allowed one total pressure during that span. He will make a huge impact in the Seattle trenches.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Jacksonville Jaguars could target a wide receiver in the first round of this year’s draft, but as the class is so deep, I think they opt to wait and look at shoring up their defense first. Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold sticks out to me as the guy for the job. Last season, the Jaguars had a decent secondary, but they struggled with making tackles, and that is what ultimately played a role in their epic second-half collapse. Now that they have to contend with the juggernaut in their own division, the Houston Texans, they HAVE to step in on the defensive side of the ball.
Terrion Arnold could be a bit of a project player, as he only has one year as a starter under his belt, but he is a true athlete. He’s not super speedy, running only a 4.5 40, but his ability to make quick turns and anticipate routes makes up for that. Even if he is more of a developmental player, you can’t pass up on that talent.
18. Cincinnati Bengals- Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
It seems like we talk about this every single season, but once again, the status of the Cincinnati Bengals offensive line is in question. This has been a recurring theme for years, but now with Joe Burrow’s new contract, it gets even more important, even to the point that some Vegas books have the first position drafted sitting at -200. The Bengals have hosted several offensive linemen, including Troy Fautanu, but since he’s off my board at this point, I have them going with Olumuyiwa Fashanu from Penn State.
At 6’6” and 312 pounds, he’s everything you want in terms of size, but he also has surprising quickness for someone that big. While he did allow ten hurries and six hits last season, he hasn’t allowed a sack in the last three years, something that will definitely be a positive for Burrow. He’s a much better pass blocker than he is a run blocker, holding a grade of 88.4 to 70.5 respectively, but again, that’s the way you protect your star quarterback.
19. Los Angeles Rams- Byron Murphy Jr., DI, Texas
After Aaron Donald’s retirement, an interior defensive lineman should be at the top of the list for the Los Angeles Rams, and who better than Byron Murphy Jr. out of Texas? He’s on the shorter side for a defensive lineman, but he more than makes up for that with his strength and violent gameplay. He holds a stellar 91.5 pass rush grade, with a pass rush win rate of 19.6%, so although he’s stepping into some big shoes held by Donald, he should be just fine. If he’s still available at 19, the Rams would be remiss if they didn’t call his number as soon as they’re on the clock.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers- Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Much like the Bengals, the Steelers have had their share of offensive line woes over the past few seasons, AND their Vegas odds are even better than the Bengals, sitting at around -320 to take an offensive lineman with their first pick. Last year, they ranked 31st in pass blocking, and with a quarterback controversy brewing between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, the last thing they need is to worsen it with poor offensive line play. At this point of the draft, Amarius Mims looks to be the best player on the board for them. He is a better pass blocker than a run blocker, but with a run-block rating of 11th in 2023, that’s not really a concern for them. Mims has all the superlatives you want in an offensive lineman, size, length, strength, etc., so the Steelers are getting a good one here.
21. Miami Dolphins- Jer’Zahn Newton, DI, Illinois
As good as the Dolphins offense was last season, when they faced other elite offenses, their defense just couldn’t stop them enough to pull out the win. Part of this was due to the massive number of injuries they suffered, but they should have had enough depth to overcome that. Now they’re in an arguably worse situation after losing some key defensive linemen in free agency, so that’s why they will select Jer’Zahn Newton from Illinois. Much like Byron Murphy Jr., he’s smaller than your typical defensive lineman, but he makes up for it with speed and strength. He’s solid across the board in both run defense and pass defense, and in 2023, he finished second in sacks, tied for sixth in hits, and eighth in hurries. This guy is a juggernaut, and Miami desperately needs him if they’re going to compete with other AFC powerhouses.
22. Philadelphia Eagles- Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Eagles’ secondary was DISMAL last season, and that is putting it mildly. They ranked 30th in pass yards allowed per game, and the majority of that yardage was given up to wide receivers. They need help in their secondary BADLY, and that’s why they take the versatile Cooper DeJean here. DeJean has the ability to play all over the field in any position, and while he’s best suited for an outside corner, his versatility is an additional selling point. He doesn’t have much experience in playing in press-man coverage, so that will be something to work on, but the Eagles can’t pass up on his versatility with all the issues they had last year.
23. Los Angeles Chargers trade with Minnesota Vikings- Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
They may have missed out on one of the top three wide receivers in the draft, but they’re still getting a stellar player in Brian Thomas Jr. out of LSU. At 6’3” and 209 pounds, he’s a prototypical wide receiver, and after letting Mike Williams walk in free agency and trading Keenan Allen, they have to get a weapon for Justin Herbert. Thomas played in the shadow of fellow prospect Malik Nabers, but he still accumulated numbers in his own right, finishing with 1,177 receiving yards in 2023. The question with Thomas is if that production was a fluke, considering he only had 720 receiving yards combined in the previous two years. Still, he showed dominance in 2023, and with Justin Herbert, he should only be able to get better (as long as he doesn’t go down the Quentin Johnston route).
24. Dallas Cowboys- Graham Barton, OT, Duke
The Cowboys have had arguably the worst offseason of any team in the NFL (and this is coming from a fan), but the worst thing they did was allow key pieces of their offensive line to walk in free agency. Pro Bowler Tyron Smith went to the New York Jets, while center Tyler Biadasz went to the rival Washington Commanders, so the offensive line is a HUGE concern and a must-draft position here in the first round. Graham Barton from Duke seems to fit what they need to start filling the gaps in the line. While Barton is listed as an offensive tackle, it’s speculated that he’ll move to the interior (and with Biadasz gone likely center), as he can get tripped up on the outside too much. At 6’5” and 313, he could be the anchor for years to come.
25. Green Bay Packers- Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
With all the offensive talent in Green Bay, they may have the luxury of making it even better by shoring up their offensive line. After bringing in Josh Jacobs, I think they look for someone to make their run-blocking better, and that “guy” is Tyler Guyton from Oklahoma. He doesn’t have to be a starter right away, as Green Bay’s line is already fairly established, but he does have the type of athleticism you don’t pass up on. He only played on the offensive side for a year after switching from defensive lineman, so there will be a learning curve, but at 6’8” and 322 pounds, he’s the type of player who could make a huge impact down the road.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Tampa Bay’s defensive line, especially their edge rushers, are very young and inexperienced, but I still think they opt to bring in another elite option to their ranks in Laiatu Latu. His PFF grade of 96.4 jumps off the page, and if you’re not a numbers person, he most definitely passes the eye test on his film. From a talent perspective, he should be gone much earlier, but I think the medical concerns on his 2021 neck injury push him down a bit in the draft boards, giving the Buccaneers a steal at 26.
27. Arizona Cardinals- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
With their second pick of the first round in 2024, the Cardinals shift to the defensive side of the ball and select Kool-Aid McKinstry. Aside from a seriously badass name, McKinstry’s skills speak for themselves. He started as a true freshman at Alabama (and if you know Nick Saban, you know how rare that is), and he’s continued to improve each season. In 2023, he only allowed a 48.7% completion percentage, 205 yards, and one touchdown. He’s not a ball-hawking type if that’s what you’re looking for, but he should be able to shut down opposing receivers. The Cardinals need a true number-one cornerback, and with his skillset, McKinstry could be the man for the job.
28. Buffalo Bills- Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
We all know the Bills are going to take a wide receiver in this draft after trading away Stefon Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency; the question is which one. I’m thinking they lean toward Troy Franklin from Oregon to give them another big body in the receiving room. He could stand to gain some weight at 6’2” and only 176 pounds, but his production in a stacked Pac-12 last season speaks for itself. He finished 2023 with 1,383 yards, and while most of these were on deep balls and vertical routes, that fills the void left by Diggs. The Bills already have Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel for the intermediate routes; what they need is a field stretcher, and Franklin is the perfect option.
29. Detroit Lions- Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
After nearly making it to the Super Bowl last season, the Lions are looking to find one more piece to help them get over the hump this year. That piece very well may be Nate Wiggins. He’s fast, fluid, and can recover well, and in 2023, he only allowed a completion rate of 43.9%, putting him close to shutdown territory. He has a little bit more in the way of turnover capability than Kool-Aid McKinstry, which is something the Lions “pride” themselves on, and he’ll be a nice complementary piece to last year’s draft pick, Brian Branch.
30. Baltimore Ravens- Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
As good as the Ravens have been the past few seasons, they have struggled with their wide receivers. Last year’s first-round pick, Zay Flowers, has the potential to become a game-changer, but aside from that, there are some glaring holes in the wide receiver room. That’s where Ladd McConkey comes in. He’s being pegged as a slot guy, but he does have the ability to gain yards after the catch, giving him upside that some other slot receivers don’t possess. McConkey also has a fairly versatile route tree, something that could allow him to move outside if the scheme dictates it. After getting Derrick Henry, all the Ravens need is another offensive weapon, and McConkey could be the guy.
31. San Francisco 49ers- Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
“Why are the 49ers taking a defensive piece when their defense was so good last year?” Well, as I like to say, the rich get richer. They need another stud opposite Nick Bosa, and Jared Verse is that guy. The most common word I see to describe him is “violent,” and if you watch his tape, you’ll see why that’s an apt descriptor. With 25 tackles and 11 sacks in 2023, the numbers speak for themselves; he just may have to work on gaining leverage at the NFL level.
32. Kansas City Chiefs- Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
The hot gossip after the combine was that the Chiefs would take Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy after his record-setting combine, but I think they look at the other Longhorn still on the board, Adonai Mitchell. His size and Combine numbers jump off the page, but it does look like he has a little weakness in his actual game play in being aggressive at the jump point. Still, with Rashee Rice facing charges in a hit-and-run a month or so ago, I think the Chiefs take a chance on him here. Even if he doesn’t get a ton of gameplay this season, he could be in for a big role next year if and when Rice is suspended.
