Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons: What it Means for Fantasy Football

The start of NFL free agency (or at least the “tampering period”) did not disappoint yesterday. Several blockbuster deals sent many of our favorite players to new locations. One of the biggest and most impactful moves was former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins signing a four-year $180 million dollar deal with the Atlanta Falcons.

In addition to the boost local Kohl’s retailers should see, Cousins should also boost the group of mega-talented skill position players who have somewhat disappointed up until now. Tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London, and even running back Bijan Robinson all get an immediate upgrade in all formats of fantasy football. But just how much should we move them up in the ranks?

We don’t want to overreact before we’ve seen Cousins play a snap (cough, Aaron Rodgers, cough), so let’s take a step back and look at what the 36-year old has to offer the dirty birds and our fantasy football rosters this season.

Kirk Cousins Signs With The Atlanta Falcons

Health and System Overview

We can’t ignore the elephant in the room: for a quarterback in his mid-to-late 30s, mobility and physical health are major questions. Cousins suffered an Achilles tear in late October of the 2023 season. And while the Falcons expect him to be healthy for the start of the season, he is facing an average recovery time of nine months. That would likely put him in camp at the beginning of August. As such, it won’t provide him much time to develop a rapport with his new teammates or learn the new system implemented by the new head coach.

The good news is that offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s system should be nearly identical to the one Cousins saw in Minnesota under Kevin O’Connell. That isn’t surprising, considering that the two worked together for two years with the Los Angeles Rams. Cousins thrives in that West Coast offensive system, so there shouldn’t be too much of a learning curve when it comes to learning the playbook.

How Much of an Upgrade is Cousins?

While there are some issues surrounding Cousins’ age and durability, it seems that the Falcons are all-in. If they believe he’ll be ready, who are we to speculate? With that put to bed, let’s now look at just how much of an upgrade Cousins will bring to Atlanta.

I know he has earned a bad wrap, but the truth is, Cousins is near the top of the league in several important metrics from last season. According to PlayerProfiler.com, he was seventh in accuracy rating, third in true completion percentage, eighth in deep ball completion percentage, second in clean pocket completion percentage, and third in true passer rating.

In under two months of football, Cousins compiled 2,331 passing yards, putting him well on his way to being one of the most prolific passers in the league had he not been injured. When you compare those numbers to the tandem of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, I don’t think you can argue that Cousins isn’t a major upgrade.

With their combined stats in 2023, Ridder and Heinicke finished 27th in the league in passer rating and had the third-worst touchdown to interception ratio. While Cousins has seen plenty of flack for his primetime interceptions, he still has much better ball security than either of Atlanta’s two quarterbacks from last year.

Cousins is familiar with elite weapons

I don’t want to compare Drake London to Justin Jefferson or Kyle Pitts to T.J. Hockenson across the board in terms of athletic ability. The truth is, the latter have been top receiving options with Kirk Cousins. When Cousins went down, their numbers dipped, and I think the opposite can be true for London and Pitts.

Again, looking at PlayerProfiler.com, London’s target quality rating was 5.21, good for 35th in the league. While that may not sound so bad, compared to Justin Jefferson’s 5.89 that ranks 12th, there’s a lot of room for improvement. Kyle Pitts fared even worse, with a target quality rating of 3.85 (37th) compared to Hockenson’s 5.4 (fifth). I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to take a chance on Kyle Pitts yet again in the 2024 season with Cousins under center.

Cousins should even help improve the fantasy value of Bijan Robinson in a roundabout way due to his lack of mobility. Last season, quarterbacks accounted for 13% of the Falcons’ total rushing attempts. If we give Robinson upwards of a 10% increase in carries, it could push him towards the magic threshold of 260-280 carries per year. The emphasis on rushing could tick down just a little with a new system and emphasis on passing. However, he should still be considered one of the most elite running backs in the league, especially now that opposing defenses have to respect the pass.

Where Should Cousins and His Weapons be Drafted?

Although this is all speculation until we see Cousins on the field and hear reports from training camp, he should once again be a top-tier quarterback based on past performance alone. He finished as a QB1 from 2020-2022. And up until his injury last season, he was sitting as the overall QB6.

Cousins may see a slight rise in average draft position (ADP) from last year’s QB16, but you should still be able to get him at a discount relative to his production. With these weapons and a similar system, he should once again be a mid-range QB1 in fantasy. 

So what about the weapons? How high am I moving them up in my rankings?

I think Drake London should be considered as a high-end WR2 with mid-range WR1 upside, even though he has been somewhat disappointing thus far in his NFL career. The problem with London’s production isn’t on him — it’s been on the quarterback. He’s a top-ten talent, and we’ve seen in the past that when Cousins has a top talent, he feeds him.

As far as Kyle Pitts, I’m looking to move him into the top tier of tight ends yet again. Yes, I know it hasn’t worked out yet and that Pitts has consistently underdelivered relative to his ADP. But Jonnu Smith is gone, there’s a new offensive coordinator in town, and he finally has a quarterback. This should finally be the year. His ADP will probably stay in the lower tier of TE1s, but he has the upside to finish in the top three.

As the saying goes, “a rising tide lifts all boats.” Cousins has brought high-tide to the Atlanta Falcons and their offense.

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