The Los Angeles Chargers currently have the 4th fewest cap space among NFL teams. “Space” would indicate there’s room to add pieces, except the Chargers currently sit at roughly $35 million OVER the recently announced $255.4 million salary cap.
And yes, that number reflects the unprecedented $30 million increase heading into 2024.
In a nutshell, the Chargers have some moves to make in the way of subtracting from their already suspect roster.
With a new front office and coaching staff, there is about to be a whole new look to this Chargers team. I have some ideas on how this team can be reshaped to continue to provide us with fantasy football superstars.
A shift in offensive philosophy
After National Championship-winning HC Jim Harbaugh agreed to become the new head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, speculation began about whether he would “get the band back together.” Harbaugh may have been coaching in the college ranks for some time, but he once led the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl.
His offensive coordinator on that team was Greg Roman, most recently the OC of the Baltimore Ravens from 2019-2022. If you’ve ever seen a Greg Roman-coached offense, you know he will run the ball with the best of them. In his ten years as an offensive coordinator, he never finished below 9th in the league in rushing attempts and finished 4th or better in rushing yards in nine of ten seasons.
On the flip side, only once did a Greg Roman-coached offense finish in the top 10 in passing attempts. In fact, Roman’s offenses have been in the bottom 5 in pass attempts in nine of ten seasons. Fun fact: Justin Herbert averages over 39 pass attempts per game over his four-year career.
So, when Harbaugh announced the hiring of Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator, many were left to wonder what this would do to Justin Herbert’s stock. “Can you imagine Justin Herbert with a great running game?” is a direct quote from Roman. So it sounds like Roman and the running game are more likely to supplement Herbert and the passing attack, with the dream being the 2019 Baltimore Ravens offense when Lamar Jackson won the MVP.
So how can we recreate that Ravens offense and maximize Justin Herbert’s potential? Let’s start by freeing up some cap space for some financial flexibility.
You had a good run, Mike Williams.
By releasing Mike Williams, the Chargers will save $20 million in 2024. Williams can be great when he’s on the field, but he’s had some issues staying on the field.
Williams has a long history of injuries, having played a full season only once. Only twice has he ever topped 1,000 yards, and he’s only hit double-digit TDs once, and that was in 2018.
For as great a compliment as Williams is to All-Pro WR Keenan Allen, both are getting up there in age. Williams will be 30 in 2024, while Allen will be 32. And for the dearth of passing volume on the horizon, there is little need to pay more than one WR $20 million or more in a season.
Trade Khalil Mack while his value is high
DE/LB Khalil Mack had his first double-digit sack season since 2018 this past season. Entering his age-33 season, Mack isn’t likely to fetch premium draft capital due to his age. And when you add that he holds a cap number of $38.5 million, the Chargers might be lucky to get a 4th round pick.
Teams will always pay a premium for quality pass rushers. And trading Mack saves the Chargers $23.25 million. So, for a team that needs to clear cap space and get younger, they should take a couple of mid-round draft picks and the cap relief while they can.
The Chargers will also likely explore the idea of trading or releasing LB Eric Kendricks. The move would save them $6.5 million, even if it leaves a gaping hole in the middle of their defense.
Rebuild the Running Back room.
Fantasy football managers love and adore Austin Ekeler. He’s one of the few NFL players that embraces fantasy football. But he’s not the premium fantasy asset he once was and is highly unlikely to re-sign with the Chargers.
So without Ekeler, who will Justin Herbert be handing the ball to?
It’s likely the Chargers will look to the NFL Draft to try and identify someone from this class to carry the load for 2024 and beyond. But considering the top two RBs on their depth chart are free agents (Ekeler and Joshua Kelley), the team currently sits with former 3rd-round pick Isaiah Spiller as their number one RB.
Um, not great.
Just as Greg Roman is a former coach with the Ravens, new general manager Joe Hortiz comes from Baltimore as well. A reunion of Gus Edwards and Greg Roman makes all the sense in the world and would help ease in an incoming rookie. Edwards averaged 5 or more yards per carry in four of five seasons and scored 13 TDs last season. He’s had 133 or more carries in four of five seasons and averages 10.1 attempts per game over his career.
Edwards can be the lead back for a season, but also a quality 1b in a system he already knows.
Rebuild the Tight End room.
Much like at RB, the Chargers are left with a third-stringer as their current TE1 (Stone Smartt). Starter Gerald Everett will be 30 and is a free agent. Backups Donald Parham Jr and Nick Vannett are also free agents. As a result, this position will likely require both free agency and the draft to fill it out.
Let’s start with free agency. A free agent that I’d love to see land here is Harrison Bryant. A backup TE in Cleveland the last four seasons, Bryant is a former Mackey award winner in college as the nation’s best TE. He’s a quality blocker and can score in the red zone. Bryant adds quality depth at the position, and some leadership for when/if the Chargers add to the TE room come draft day.
How to approach the NFL Draft
Losing Justin Herbert for any amount of time is usually a valid reason for finishing with a top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. With the team needing to cut ties with some of their older and pricier players, hitting on draft picks will be essential to building this team.
Something the Ravens have done well for YEARS is let the draft come to them and not overthink what the team needs versus adding premium talent.
As previously mentioned, new Chargers GM Joe Hortiz spent 26 years with the Ravens, watching how they operate. It’s not egregious to think that Hortiz will operate in a similar fashion.
There’s a lot of top-end talent in this particular draft class. With Jim Harbaugh at the helm, it’s obvious to think an offensive or defensive lineman could easily be the play, given they’re unlikely to focus on WR this early after spending a 1st-round pick on Quentin Johnston last year.
Their offensive line needs are on the right side, with LT Rashawn Slater entrenched on Justin Herbert’s blindside. If they fall in love with a tackle, a trade-down would make the most sense to gain value in the selection and tack on some additional draft capital.
The same thought process should apply to the defensive side of the ball. While Jared Verse and Dallas Turner sit atop the list of EDGE rushers in this class, they aren’t considered as elite as other prospects at other positions. A trade-back to pair one of them with an aging and oft-injury Joey Bosa also makes sense.
And with the 5th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft…
If the Chargers decide to stay at 5, there’s one player that makes the most sense. And that’s Georgia TE Brock Bowers.
Greg Roman had an elite TE during his time in San Francisco, former first-round pick Vernon Davis. Roman also had an elite TE in Baltimore, former 3rd-round pick Mark Andrews.
Brock Bowers is both an elite blocking TE and an elite receiving TE. Some think he’s a better TE prospect than Kyle Pitts, and he was considered a unicorn. Pairing Bowers with Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen helps to keep the passing attack centralized to two main targets to open up the running game.
If the team feels the 5th overall pick is too rich for a TE (and I’m sure there are many who will feel that way), they may find a way to trade back and potentially use their 2nd round pick on the TE2 of this class, Ja’Tavion Sanders out of Texas. Either way, I fully expect the Chargers to come away with a big upgrade at the TE position in late April.
Can Justin Herbert focus on efficiency over volume?
Justin Herbert has posted completion percentages over 65% in each of his four seasons in the NFL, with a high mark of 68.2% in 2022. But with a decrease in passing volume, touchdowns will be the key to Justin Herbert’s success in 2024.
In Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP season, he had a ridiculous 9.0 TD percentage. Justin Herbert has never posted higher than 5.7%. Greg Roman’s scheme will look for Herbert to put the ball in the hands of his playmakers and let them make plays. So, regardless of what you or I think of Quentin Johnston, he should be primed for a second-year leap if he figures out how to catch the football.
Keenan Allen isn’t getting any younger, sadly. But he just posted 108/1243/7 in 13 games in his age 31 season. He’ll once again be the apple of Herbert’s eye. If the Chargers add a talent like Brock Bowers to go with Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, Justin Herbert should be able to be more efficient while throwing only 32-33 times per game.
If the Chargers add a back like Gus Edwards and a rookie like Blake Corum, Jim Harbaugh’s choice at RB while at Michigan, Herbert will face defenses that have to respect the running game for the first time in his career.
Some may have grumbled over the selection of Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. And while I don’t trust his ability to creatively scheme a passing game, I trust the talent that already exists in Los Angeles to make the most of their opportunities.
“Can you imagine Justin Herbert with a great running game?”
Yes, Greg. Yes, I can. And I’m salivating.
Be sure you’re following Josh Hudson on Twitter. You can also find more of his Club Fantasy work here, including a few other Fixer Uppers!
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