We are down to four teams, and whether or not your team is still in it, there is plenty to play for when it comes to NFL Conference Championship DFS. With only four teams to choose from, our DFS slate is tighter than ever, meaning we have to get creative when constructing lineups. That means it’s time to let go of some of your traditional rules and lean into the variance of a small slate.
Editor’s Note: You can check out videos for each matchup below. You’ll also find them conveniently linked throughout the article!
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Now, let’s dig into our NFL DFS Conference Championship picks.
Cash is in session.
NFL Conference Championship DFS
Teacher’s Pet
Brandon Aiyuk (DraftKings: $6,900 / FanDuel: $7,800)
The Detroit Lions’ secondary could be the reason they do not make it to the Superbowl this year. Since Week 15, they have averaged 52 points allowed to opposing receivers. By comparison, no other team playing this weekend has allowed more than 30 points per game to the position. That puts Brandon Aiyuk in a solid spot to pop off. Additionally, people are down on him, meaning he will likely have a low rostership percentage, particularly with the news of Deebo Samuel playing.
Honor Roll
Patrick Mahomes (DraftKings: $6,900 / FanDuel: $7,400)
It is odd that the best quarterback in the league would be considered a contrarian play, but Patrick Mahomes might just be the lowest-rostered quarterback on the weekend. The narrative around the Baltimore Ravens is that they have the best defense in the league. And while that is true, it should not distract from what Mahomes can accomplish. It would shock no one if he went for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Plus, he can destroy defenses with his legs, especially during the playoffs.
Isiah Pacheco (DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: $7,800)
On the flip side, the Ravens’ one weakness is run defense, which could favor Isiah Pacheco. Kansas City has shown a commitment to running the ball when necessary. When they do so, they run through Pacheco. He is as likely as any player this weekend to have a 20 to 25-touch performance. With the amount of volume, he is a lock for any lineup.
Sam LaPorta (DraftKings: $5,400 / FanDuel: $6,500)
While Sam LaPorta has not been at 100% during the playoffs, he is effectively the only tight end the Detroit Lions have at their disposal. Sure, they signed Zach Ertz, but that was simply an insurance move. If a tight end is getting the ball, it’s going to be LaPorta. Now, the 49ers are known for being challenging over the middle of the field. That said, they have allowed 17 points per game to tight ends since Week 15, the most amongst the remaining teams. LaPorta is likely to be chalky, so make sure to get different elsewhere, but he is safe chalk to play this week.
Check the Chalkboard
Christian McCaffrey (DraftKings: $9,000 / FanDuel: $11,000)
Don’t get cute. Yes, the Detroit Lions have a great run defense. That doesn’t mean you should fade Christian McCaffrey. He could just as easily get there by catching six passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns. He is not a normal running back. The matchup against the Lions warrants setting some lineups without McCaffrey, but he still should be in a solid portion of DFS lineups.
Participation Grade
Jameson Williams (DraftKings: $3,700 / FanDuel: $5,000)
This is a bet on two things. First, the San Francisco 49ers defense isn’t as good as it has been in recent years. But that is not the prominent narrative. Bet number one is that DFS players will fixate on the typical narrative of the 49ers’ defense and avoid the Lions’ receivers. Secondly, the 49ers are particularly vulnerable outside the hashes, which is where Jameson Williams makes his living. Bet number two is that Williams catches a deep touchdown on a go route that sets your lineup apart from the rest.
Back of the Classroom Studs
Justice Hill (DraftKings: $4,800 / FanDuel: $5,500)
The number one Baltimore Ravens running back is not the most expensive Ravens running back this week. That’s right, Justice Hill had more touches than Gus Edwards last week and yet is cheaper on both websites. Simply put, Hill has the opportunities and the salary savings. The Kansas City Chiefs have struggled against the run, which will benefit Hill.
Jauan Jennings (DraftKings: $4,600 / FanDuel $5,300)
Even though Deebo Samuel is set to play this week, expect Jauan Jennings to get his fair share of chances. He was already being worked into the action before Samuel went out last week, and that only proliferated when Samuel exited. There’s a good chance that Samuel is not at 100%, which will favor Jennings once again. Plus, the Lions’ secondary is so bad that multiple receivers can get there.
Rashod Bateman (DraftKings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $4,900)
Believe it or not, the Kansas City Chiefs are the toughest matchup for opposing receivers on the slate. Despite that, Rashod Bateman has a pathway to be the contrarian play of the week. L’Jarius Snead is likely to focus his attention on Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews, which should provide opportunities for the other Baltimore Ravens pass-catchers. Enter Rashod Bateman, who has quietly been a consistent target of Lamar Jackson’s. Given the attention the other receivers are likely to receive, Bateman will get the opportunity to shine and stretch the field. That is a solid recipe for a winning DFS lineup.
Detroit Lions (DraftKings: $2,600 / FanDuel: $3,300)
Here we have a classic game theory move. The chalky defenses are likely to be the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Therefore, I will avoid playing them. Defensive performances are so hard to predict and are incredibly volatile. All it takes is for one team to score a defensive touchdown for them to be the best option on the slate. Here, I’m betting on the Lions having a low rostership percentage and looking for splash plays to bring the upset to San Francisco. Plus, Aiden Hutchinson has been playing like a madman and could single-handedly make the Lions the best defense on the slate.
Report Card
DraftKings
Scoring System
- A: Scored over three times their price
- B: Scored over two times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
| Player | Price | Points | Grade |
| Chris Godwin | $6,300 | 8 | C |
| Brock Purdy | $6,500 | 15.48 | B |
| Aaron Jones | $6,700 | 19.6 | B |
| James Cook | $6,300 | 12.2 | C |
| Nico Collins | $7,100 | 11.8 | C |
| George Kittle | $5,200 | 18.1 | A |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,800 | 31.8 | A |
| Trey Palmer | $3,500 | 5.2 | C |
| Jared Goff | $6,300 | 20.08 | A |
| Gus Edwards | $5,900 | 4.9 | F |
| Jauan Jennings | $3,600 | 11 | A |
| Luke Musgrave | $3,600 | 4.4 | C |
| Kansas City Chiefs | $2,700 | 0 | F |
| Houston Texans | $2,900 | 8 | B |
| Overall | $75,400 | 170.56 | B |
| Season Long | $1,513,300 | 3987.04 | B |
FanDuel
Scoring System
- A: Scored over two times their price
- B: Scored over one and a half times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
| Player | Price | Points | Grade |
| Chris Godwin | $6,900 | 6 | F |
| Brock Purdy | $7,800 | 15.48 | B |
| Aaron Jones | $7,400 | 15.1 | A |
| James Cook | $6,800 | 10.2 | B |
| Nico Collins | $8,700 | 9.3 | C |
| George Kittle | $6,400 | 16.1 | A |
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,800 | 28.3 | A |
| Trey Palmer | $5,200 | 4.2 | F |
| Jared Goff | $7,600 | 20.08 | A |
| Gus Edwards | $6,900 | 4.4 | F |
| Jauan Jennings | $4,700 | 8.5 | B |
| Luke Musgrave | $5,100 | 2.9 | F |
| Kansas City Chiefs | $3,800 | 0 | F |
| Houston Texans | $3,400 | 8 | A |
| Overall | $91,500 | 148.56 | B |
| Season Long | $1,824,200 | 3449.54 | B |
Be sure you’re following Austin on Twitter! He will be doing this article throughout the playoffs, so just go ahead and bookmark his author page!
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