When the New England Patriots brought on Bill O’Brien to be their offensive coordinator at the beginning of the 2023 offseason, the fantasy football community was just happy a defensive-minded coach wasn’t calling plays for the offense anymore.
Sadly, little else was done to fix this offense from their putrid 2022 output. Signing WR JuJu Smith-Schuster was disastrous. Free agent TE Mike Gesicki scored two touchdowns on 29 receptions. And QB Mac Jones was benched multiple times.
These moves led to an even more abysmal finish than 2022:
- From 20th to 28th in Passing offense
- From 24th to 26th in Rushing offense
- From 26th to 30th in Total offense
- From 17th to T-31st in Scoring offense
New England’s disappointing 2023 led to major turnover for the first time in a quarter century. Bill Belichick is no longer the head coach, and Bill O’Brien took the OC job at Ohio State. LB coach Jerod Mayo was named as Belichick’s successor, and no OC has been hired (yet). And no GM has been tapped either.
There is plenty of uncertainty on the horizon for the New England Patriots on both sides of the ball. But since this is a fantasy football site, we really only care about offense. (Don’t worry, I’ll touch on a few defensive moves.) So how can this offense be fixed to provide viable fantasy options in 2024? I have a few ideas.
There’s plenty of money to spend
With every quick turnaround, money is usually at the forefront. Two years ago, the Patriots went on a spending spree, bringing in the likes of TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, WRs Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, LB/EDGE Matthew Judon, DB Jalen Mills, and plenty of others.
Some signings worked out better than others, but the Patriots made the playoffs, so the whiffs were easy to overlook. But two years later, very few of them are still making an impact.
Per overthecap.com, the Patriots sit with approximately $66.1 million in cap space (as of 1/25), 3rd-most in the league. And that number could easily increase. Just cutting CB J.C. Jackson puts them over $80 million in cap space. They can even designate Smith-Schuster a post-June 1st cut to save an additional $7.67 million. (And I fully expect that to happen after his dismal 2023.)
Once a GM is hired, they’ll have their work cut out for them. And the first thing they should do is look at a couple of their young defenders–
Build around Josh Uche and Christian Barmore
EDGE Josh Uche had a down 2023 from his breakout 2022. But while his sack numbers were underwhelming (3.5), he finished second on the team in pressures (37). Part of that could easily be that standout pass rusher Matthew Judon missed 13 games this season, so defenses could key in on him. When used properly, Uche can be an effective pass rusher to complement Judon. If I had to guess, Uche will look for a contract in the $15 million a year range.
Barmore, as a defensive tackle, led the team in pressures (49) and sacks (8). His PPF grades as a run defender and pass rusher have increased through each of his first three season. He’s 24 and is up for an extension. This should be the easiest contract the Patriots hand out this year, and it will likely start in the $20 million-a-year range. Interior pressure is a hot commodity these days.
Don’t overspend on their own free agents
With Bill Belichick no longer in New England, the Patriots need to focus on getting younger and not recycling veterans. Of their most notable free agents, nine are 29 or older. Bringing any of these players back comes with too much risk. Hunter Henry (30) and Ezekiel Elliott (29) were the most productive of the group, but both are likely more interested in a shot at a championship than a rebuilding effort.
What will the offensive scheme look like?
The departure of Bill O’Brien means the Patriots will have a fourth play-caller in as many years. Could a reunion with Josh McDaniels happen? I’d wager no. There was a lot of talk that McDaniels didn’t leave New England to take the Colts HC job some years ago because he wanted to succeed Belichick. With that honor going to Mayo, McDaniels is likely in his feelings.
So far in their search, Mayo has interviewed Rams TEs coach Nick Caley and Rams QB coach/pass game coordinator Zac Robinson. Both have spent time with the Patriots over the years: Caley was previously with the Patriots for eight seasons as an offensive assistant/TEs coach, and Robinson was a former draft pick of the Patriots who played with Mayo in NE. Mayo has also interviewed Bengals’ QB coach Dan Pitcher (though some believe he’s likely to remain in Cincinnati to succeed OC Brian Callahan, who was just named Head Coach of the Tennessee Titans).
Having ties to NE is a plus since Robert Kraft’s obsession with family could be mistaken for an episode of The Sopranos. Robinson is considered a rising star in coaching circles. And since he has spent time with Sean McVay, his star is even brighter. Bringing an outside perspective can help freshen up this offense, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Robinson is given his first shot to call plays.
What offensive pieces are needed?
If we look at the Rams’ offense for some hints, we can determine what the Patriots need to have a serviceable offense in 2024. And here’s the short answer: EVERYTHING.
If we operate under the assumption the Patriots will use the 3rd overall pick on a quarterback, let’s put some useful pieces around him to help the rookie succeed in Year One.
But, first thing’s first–
Trade Mac Jones
Look, it didn’t work. Belichick ruined his confidence, and there’s no point in going back to the well when there’s an incoming QB class that is not only deep but top-heavy. Yes, he led this team to the playoffs in 2021, but he couldn’t overcome the ensuing adversity. The Patriot’s best hope is to get a similar return as the 49ers received when they traded former 1st-round pick Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys — a 4th-round pick.
Keeping Jones on the roster when the plan is to spend your top draft pick on a QB will only further destroy his already fragile psyche. It can also diminish his trade value. The sooner you deal him and accept the L, the better.
Teams I could see that may have interest include the Rams, Saints, Packers, and Vikings.
Find some offensive line help
A staple of Patriots’ lore has been turning water into wine at the offensive line position. If Zac Robinson ends up as the play-caller, it wouldn’t surprise me if he follows a similar mold. Sean McVay didn’t spend many early picks on offensive linemen either, instead, looking for traits that operated within his scheme.
As a result, I don’t expect the Patriots to be in on the more expensive options on the market, like T Jonah Williams and G Jonah Jackson. Could they make a run at G Robert Hunt from Miami? We see these types of inter-division sign-aways happen all the time.
But someone I think they should look at is G Ezra Cleveland. He spent three and a half seasons in Minnesota before a midseason trade to the Jacksonville Jaguars this year. His last year and a half in Minnesota, though, was played with Kevin O’Connell as the HC/OC. A Zac Robinson scheme is likely to be similar, and Cleveland was a solid run blocker during his time there. (We won’t talk about his putrid attempts at pass blocking.)
While Robinson is the current pass game coordinator for the Rams, a strong running game is what will take pressure off a young QB. (This will be addressed later, so stay tuned.) And McVay always had a strong running game to balance his elite passing game. This is the kind of low-key move that doesn’t kill your cap and provides some upside if the kinks can be worked out.
C David Andrews has expressed an interest in returning, and he could easily be a cap casualty with a scheme coming in. Having a veteran center operating with a young QB could be invaluable and shouldn’t be ruled out.
Weapons, weapons, weapons
The Patriots scored a league-low 13.9 points per game. And no, that’s not a typo. They averaged less than TWO TOUCHDOWNS PER GAME. Their leading rusher was a 28-year-old Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Their leading receiver was Demario “Pop” Douglas, a 6th-round rookie from Liberty who didn’t top 600 yards nor score a TD.
So, yeah. Weapons.
Let’s break this down by position–
Running backs
Rhamondre Stevenson had a breakout in 2022, and many of us (myself included) expected that to continue in 2023. The signing of Elliott led to far too many carries being shared, and Stevenson never got going. He only played in 12 games due to an ankle injury.
With Elliott not likely to be re-signed, Stevenson needs a backup. With Stevenson’s ability to be effective as a runner and receiver, there’s no need for a “complimentary” back. The Patriots need someone capable as a pass catcher, but can handle a workload if anything were to happen to Stevenson.
Unlucky for the Patriots, not many of those types of backs hit free agency. They could look to the draft and may do just that. But a low-cost option I would explore would be Antonio Gibson. He’s shown the ability to catch passes effectively, although his ability as a pass blocker is suspect. And he has two seasons where he had 170 or more carries. He’s also scored 29 TDs in four seasons.
You could likely secure Gibson for a 3-year, $12 million deal with an easy out after 2024 if you find a quality RB via the draft. That provides an additional weapon and depth at a position of need.
Wide Receiver
I think it’s safe to say the Patriots swung and missed on choosing JuJu Smith-Schuster over Jakobi Meyers last offseason. Meyers totaled 11 TDs with the Raiders this season, while JuJu only PLAYED in 11 games. Yikes. As noted above, the Patriots can designate JuJu as a post-June 1st cut and rid themselves of that mistake rather quickly.
With Kendrick Bourne and Jalen Reagor both free agents, the Patriots are left with veteran DeVante Parker (394 yards, 0 TDs), Tyquan Thornton (91 yards, 0 TDs), and rookies Demario Douglas (561 yards, 0 TDs) and Kayshon Boutte (19 yards, 0 TDs). That’s worse than a Pop Warner squad.
Thornton is entering Year 3, while Douglas and Boutte enter Year 2. And Parker hasn’t been a good receiver since before COVID (he’ll be 31 in 2024). Without adding any pieces, they’re heading into 2024 with Parker as the X, Thornton/Boutte as the Z, and Douglas as the slot.
Are they attractive enough for the top free agents?
Outside of the big names like Mike Evans (31), Calvin Ridley (30), Marquise Brown (27), Michael Pittman Jr. (27), and Tee Higgins (25), not much young talent is available via free agency. The Patriots will have some cap space to challenge for the likes of Higgins, Pittman, and Brown (pending none re-sign with their current teams). But should they chase them?
It’s difficult to imagine any of these WRs choosing NE over a team with a QB in place. And Mac Jones isn’t attracting any of these options.
The Patriots should turn their attention to a younger option who showed progress at a previous stop — Donovan Peoples-Jones.
DPJ has good speed and is one year removed from a 61/839/3 campaign in Cleveland. He can compete with Thornton and Boutte as the Z in this offense while the team looks to the draft to find a potential WR1 at the top of the 2nd round. DPJ is unlikely to re-sign in Detroit after a midseason trade and will be looking for an opportunity to rebuild his value where he can see meaningful targets. I can’t think of a better place than NE. And he shouldn’t cost more than a 1-year, $8 million deal with incentives, similar to what DJ Chark signed with Carolina last year.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, and Pharoah Brown are all free agents. So the Patriots will need to attack this position in free agency probably more than any other. There are two names that stand out to me on the market that the Patriots should be interested in — Noah Fant and Harrison Bryant.
Bryant has been used mainly as an inline blocking TE while in Cleveland, with David Njoku dominating targets. Bryant can find the end zone, though, with 10 TDs in four seasons on only 89 receptions. He would make for a solid red-zone option.
Noah Fant could be the Tyler Higbee in Zac Robinson’s offense. Fant has always been a skilled pass catcher, with speed to separate from linebackers and give defenses fits. Where he’s typically struggled is as a blocker. And that’s where he improved most in 2023. He posted a 72.1 pass block grade in Seattle this year, compared to a 39.5 grade just two seasons ago.
Fant spent the last two seasons in Shane Waldron’s offense. Waldren spent four years with McVay in Los Angeles, three of those as the pass game coordinator. He’d fit right in as a field stretching safety blanket for a young QB.
Bryant shouldn’t cost more than $6 million per year, while Fant may approach $10 million per year.
Who will play Quarterback?
Ah, yes. The burning question. With the Patriots owning the 3rd overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, many draft pundits see the selection being LSU QB and reigning Heisman trophy winner Jayden Daniels. His ability as a runner, coupled with his growth as a passer over the last year, has teams enamored with his potential. He’s entered the conversation as the QB2 off the board, and it will only grow louder as offseason testing gets underway.
With the Patriots also owning the 34th pick, there’s a very real possibility they can pair Daniels with a young receiver with WR1 upside. This is one of the deepest WR classes in recent memory, with Daniel Jeremiah’s recent mock draft calling for six WRs in the first 32 picks, including three in the top 6. The Patriots could even show they’re a different organization than in years past and trade up to secure one of these guys. Imagine pairing Daniels with his college teammate, Brian Thomas Jr.. At 6’5″, he has the size and speed (estimated 4.47 40 time) to be a problem at the next level.
After the first two rounds, the Patriots can look to do what they do best and turn water into wine.
Will this fix the Patriots?
We just saw a rookie head coach with a rookie QB win a division and a playoff game. While I’m not convinced Jerod Mayo is of the same caliber as DeMeco Ryans or one of these rookie QBs will have the same kind of impact CJ Stroud had, I won’t rule it out. The Texans invested a lot of money into their offensive line, and the Patriots know they will likely need to do the same at some point.
They need their young WRs to show some kind of growth and maturation. Aside from Demario Douglas, there’s little to be excited about at the position.
If this offense stands a chance to provide any fantasy hope in 2024, it starts and ends with Rhamondre Stevenson. And that upside will have top 5 potential if he’s paired with a mobile QB as skilled as Jayden Daniels.
The good news? This offense can’t get any worse. That’s something to be happy about if you’re a Patriots fan.
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