The NFL Divisional Round is one of the most exciting weekends of football and DFS. Every team is now only two wins away from a Superbowl appearance. Plus, we get several matchups between the top quarterbacks in the league.
The Divisional Round is also where I start shifting towards more DFS GPP and tournament contests. As there are fewer games in the main slate, it becomes harder to gain an edge in DFS Cash. Instead, we can lean into the variance and target upside for tournaments.
As such, the players in this week’s article are my best plays, full stop. My picks are geared toward tournament settings but are also viable Cash options.
Editor’s Note: You can check out videos for each matchup below. You’ll also find them conveniently linked throughout the article!
BAL vs. HOU | BUF vs. KC | SF vs. GB | DET vs. TB
Now, let’s dig into our NFL DFS Divisional Rounds picks.
Cash is in session.
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NFL Divisional Round DFS
Teacher’s Pet
Chris Godwin (DraftKings: $6,300 / FanDuel: $6,900)
Chris Godwin might just have the best game environment on the slate. The Detroit Lions have allowed 54 points per game to receivers since Week 15. The Lions particularly struggle against slot receivers. Plus, Tampa Bay is nearly a touchdown underdog, so they will need to air it out to keep pace with the Lions. As for Godwin, he led the Buccaneers in receiving yards when these teams played in Week 6. We just watched Puka Nacua run mad routes all over this team. Now, it’s Godwin’s turn.
Honor Roll
Brock Purdy (DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: $7,800)
The San Francisco 49ers enter the weekend with the highest implied team total, currently set at 30 points. Brock Purdy is by no means a sexy pick, but he has perhaps the safest floor on the slate. Plus, with the 49ers’ upside, he also has a solid upside, which is why I like him in GPP settings. DFS players may be tempted to pay up for the elite quarterbacks, overlooking Purdy in the process. Purdy has scored over 20 DraftKings points in nine of his 16 starts this season. If the other quarterbacks fail to hit their ceiling, Purdy’s 20 points could be the key to the slate.
Aaron Jones (DraftKings: $6,700 / FanDuel: $7,400)
No, we are not chasing Aaron Jones’ three-touchdown performance from last week. We are, however, chasing volume. Jones has four consecutive weeks with at least 20 touches and 100 rushing yards. Believe it or not, the 49ers’ run defense provides the second-best matchup for running backs this week despite allowing the 17th most points to running backs since Week 15. Turns out, teams that can stop the run make deep playoff runs. Who would’ve thought? Anyways, back to Aaron Jones. The combination of his volume, passing-game upside, and a decent matchup make him a solid pick in Cash and Tournament settings.
James Cook (DraftKings: $6,300 / FanDuel: $6,800)
On initial glance, this is a tough matchup for James Cook. The Kansas City Chiefs have been solid against the run this season. However, it’s a tough week for running backs in general. Because of that, we need to look for running backs with passing-game upside. Bring in Cook, who had five catches for 80 yards when he played the Chiefs in Week 14. Now, the Chiefs will likely adjust to avoid explosive plays from Cook. That said, he still has the volume to payoff in DFS settings and can provide a contrarian option in tournaments as people try to avoid the Kansas City rush defense.
Nico Collins (DraftKings: $7,100 / FanDuel: $8,700)
It is hard to draw too many conclusions from the Week 1 battle between the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens. That said, Nico Collins was heavily targeted in that matchup, bringing in six catches on 11 targets. The Ravens will be without their top cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, this week. That plays well for Collins, who continues to be a top target in this offense. He also provides some salary relief for anyone paying up for the top quarterbacks or Christian McCaffrey. The Texans will likely be playing from behind and need to rely on Collins to stay competitive.
George Kittle (DraftKings: $5,200 / FanDuel: $6,400)
I absolutely love this spot for George Kittle. The Green Bay Packers secondary has struggled down the stretch. In particular, they have struggled against slot receivers. Kittle leads the 49ers in snaps from the slot, per PFF. He may be more heavily rostered than typical simply because of the reduced tight end options. However, expect more people to target Sam LaPorta, allowing you to gain leverage on the field by playing Kittle.
Check the Chalkboard
Christian McCaffrey (DraftKings: $8,800 / FanDuel: $10,800)
One of the key decisions on the slate will be whether or not to play Christian McCaffrey. The challenge is that he plays Saturday night, so we will have less time to pivot based on how the early games go. My overall approach is to play McCaffrey in Cash. He is cheaper than we were getting him during the season, despite having a solid matchup. In tournaments, I will have exposure to lineups with and without McCaffrey. Overall, I will play him more often than not, simply because he could easily break the slate and bury any lineup without him.
Participation Grade
Trey Palmer (DraftKings: $3,500 / FanDuel: $5,200)
Trey Palmer has gotten attention this year for his ability to take the top off of defenses. And while that is a key aspect of his game, he is also a solid route runner, which will help him tear up the Detroit Lions’ secondary. Again, the Lions are allowing the most points to receivers. With Palmer’s ability to beat defenses multiple ways, he is the perfect punt play, especially given his salary. He can triple his salary without scoring a touchdown this week. With a touchdown, he is helping you win a GPP contest.
Back of the Classroom Studs
Jared Goff (DraftKings: $6,300 / FanDuel: $7,600)
Similar to Brock Purdy, Jared Goff could easily get overlooked this week as people chase the elite quarterbacks. Goff had a stellar performance against the Buccaneers in Week 6, throwing for over 300 yards. Despite looking solid last weekend, the Buccaneers’ secondary has struggled this season, positioning Goff to have a solid outing. Plus, by having him in your lineup, you open yourself up to more late swap opportunities after the Saturday games conclude.
Gus Edwards (DraftKings: $5,900 / FanDuel: $6,900)
Gus Edwards is more of a tournament play this week, but I could make a case for playing him in Cash as well. Set aside the Week 1 matchup, where the Ravens had three rushing touchdowns on the Texans. From a game theory perspective, GPP players are likely to be easily enticed by the upside of a CJ Stroud versus Lamar Jackson shootout. But what if the Ravens get up and are inclined to play ball control and run out the clock? Or, what if this game becomes a defensive battle and hits the under? Those scenarios are just as likely as a back-and-forth air raid. In that scenario, Edwards should pop, getting the rushing volume and falling into the endzone.
Jauan Jennings (DraftKings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $4,700)
Remember how the Packers struggle against slot receivers? Outside of George Kittle, Jauan Jennings has the second most slot snaps of any 49ers pass-catcher. Plus, with the 49ers coming off a bye week, they have had time to install some gadget plays for their secondary and tertiary pass options. Kyle Shanahan may look to get Jennings involved early, throwing the Packers off the scent of their primary playmakers. Between the bye week and the matchup, Jennings is in line for a solid outing.
Luke Musgrave (DraftKings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $5,100)
Surprisingly, the San Francisco 49ers have struggled against tight ends down the stretch. Since Week 15, they have allowed 18 points per game to the position. Fortunately for the Packers, they have two solid tight end options, including the return of their number one tight end in Luke Musgrave. After a ramp-up period in Week 18, Musgrave was fully integrated into the offense last week, bringing in three catches and a touchdown. The Packers are going to want to use heavy personnel, leveraging play action out of run looks. That strategy favors Musgrave, who can capably play the run and the pass.
Kansas City Chiefs (DraftKings: $2,700 / FanDuel: $3,800)
The Kansas City Chiefs’ defense is one of the top defenses remaining. And yet, they are one of the cheapest defenses on the slate simply because of their matchup. However, we all know that Josh Allen could have a multi-turnover game in any given week. Plus, when these teams last played, Kansas City held the Bills to 20 points. Kansas City has the floor, and the upside to warrant Cash and GPP plays.
Houston Texans (DraftKings: $2,900 / FanDuel: $3,400)
The Houston Texans are my favorite contrarian option for tournament settings this week. They are a risky Cash play, especially given that Kansas City is cheaper on DraftKings. The Texans are intriguing for multiple reasons. They only have two games on the season without a turnover. They have recorded multiple sacks in 10 of their last 13 games. Plus, they have 10 games with at least three games on the season, including against this Ravens team in Week 1. The Texans may need a splash play from their defense to shift their odds of advancing, so expect them to play aggressively to force a big defensive play.
Report Card
DraftKings
Scoring System
- A: Scored over three times their price
- B: Scored over two times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
| Player | Price | Points | Grade |
| CeeDee Lamb | $9,000 | 23.5 | B |
| Dak Prescott | $7,600 | 35.62 | A |
| Aaron Jones | $6,300 | 35.1 | A |
| Najee Harris | $5,400 | 7.2 | C |
| Rashee Rice | $6,600 | 30 | A |
| Dallas Goedert | $4,800 | 12.1 | B |
| Rachaad White | $6,900 | 8.5 | C |
| Trey Palmer | $3,400 | 13.5 | A |
| Jared Goff | $6,200 | 14.78 | B |
| Devin Singletary | $5,700 | 16 | B |
| Quez Watkins | $3,500 | 4.2 | C |
| Dalton Schultz | $4,400 | 10.7 | B |
| Kansas City Chiefs | $2,900 | 8 | B |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | $2,600 | 3 | C |
| Overall | $75,300 | 222.2 | B |
| Season Long | $1,437,900 | 3816.48 | B |
FanDuel
Scoring System
- A: Scored over two times their price
- B: Scored over one and a half times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
| Player | Price | Points | Grade |
| CeeDee Lamb | $10,000 | 16 | B |
| Dak Prescott | $8,600 | 32.62 | A |
| Aaron Jones | $7,000 | 31.6 | A |
| Najee Harris | $6,500 | 6.2 | F |
| Rashee Rice | $7,800 | 23 | A |
| Dallas Goedert | $6,100 | 10.1 | B |
| Rachaad White | $7,700 | 8 | C |
| Trey Palmer | $5,400 | 13 | A |
| Jared Goff | $7,700 | 14.78 | B |
| Devin Singletary | $6,300 | 14.5 | A |
| Quez Watkins | $4,400 | 2.7 | F |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,900 | 10.2 | B |
| Kansas City Chiefs | $4,000 | 8 | A |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | $3,000 | 3 | C |
| Overall | $90,400 | 193.7 | A |
| Season Long | $1,732,700 | 3300.98 | B |
Be sure you’re following Austin on Twitter! He will be doing this article throughout the playoffs, so just go ahead and bookmark his author page!
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