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Dynasty Offseason Overview – Quarterbacks

Dynasty Fantasy Football

 “The title is a misnomer” is a lousy way to start an article, but in this case, it’s technically correct. There is no offseason in dynasty. We’re less than three weeks post-Championship Week, and things are already firing up for 2024. Startups and dispersal drafts are in progress, and I’ve already gotten a bunch of terrible trade offers. Some things never change. With all that in mind, let’s start taking a big-picture overview of the player pool, position by position, starting with quarterbacks.

This won’t be super granular. There will be plenty of time for that later. Right now, I want to create a starting point for evaluations and come up with the questions we’ll need to answer between now and September.

My mind goes directly to Superflex when talking quarterbacks, so that will be the focus, but we’ll reference Single QB, as well. There are no rankings within the top tiers. In a vacuum, I wouldn’t give up anything to move from any player to any other player in the same tier. There may be specific instances where I would consider moving within a tier, like portfolio exposure, but I wouldn’t give up anything of tangible value to make the move. Similarly, should someone offer me something tangible to move within a tier, I’m generally glad to do it.

Dynasty Overview – Quarterbacks

Tier I

Interestingly, the top tier remains the same as going into the 2023 season. I would expect Allen to regain his status as the near consensus number-one overall pick in Superflex drafts. There may be some theoretical questions, but I don’t think there are any wrong answers in this group.

Tier II

It’s amazing what one healthy season will do, huh? Following a couple of seasons with late injuries, Lamar Jackson played a full, MVP-caliber year and reclaimed his spot in this tier.

Full disclosure, when I was brainstorming this article, I went into it thinking C.J. Stroud was a “Shop Around For a Haul” candidate. Then I watched the Wild Card game against Cleveland. I think I’m good holding him unless/until I’m blown away. In NFL GM-speak, I’ll take calls, but I’m not making them.

Stroud was outstanding against the Browns, but he wasn’t perfect. Jordan Love was perfect against Dallas. His stretch run performance has solidified his placement in this tier. He wins the 2023 Biggest Value Bump award for QBs and pays off everyone who invested and held a roster spot for three years. Present company included.

Big picture, I’m happy with any of these as my QB1 in superflex and ecstatic if I have two. Everyone in this tier qualifies for the “Any Given Sunday, Any Given Season” rule, so I’m not looking to add to any of them to move into a Tier I option. This is the sweet spot tier.

Tier III

The Cellophane Ceiling tier. We know a ceiling exists. It might be really high, but it also might be really fragile and subject to collapsing in on itself. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these had moved into Tier II by this time next year. Richardson is probably the only one with a real chance to move into Tier I, but he’s also the only one with a cellophane floor. He didn’t play enough to fully answer the questions in his prospect profile, and the injuries only added another very important question. Early returns are promising, but the sample size is minuscule. I’m OK with one of these as my starter in a single QB, but I’d want a solid backup plan from one of the next two tiers.

Tier IV

I’ll call this the “They Are What They Are” tier, but acknowledge there may be some drastically differing opinions externally. If I need a Superflex QB2, this is the tier I’m targeting. Their managers may be down on them, and I can likely get a viable starter at a small to moderate discount. Lawrence feels like he’ll be my top offseason trade target, as the Twittersphere seems unduly down on him. If he could pull off a season like Dak or Tua had this year, his placement next year will be up at least one tier. This tier is the end of the acceptable One-QB starters. Feel free to apply your own cutoff within.

Tier V

We’ve moved into the tiers that are grouped more nominally than by approximately equal dynasty value. This tier includes but two; rookies on bad teams with bad offenses and sketchy prospects for improvement. One drastically underplayed their draft capital, and one failed to transcend theirs. Of the two, I prefer Young, but it’s unlikely he’ll be a contributor in the next two seasons. This tier is begging for glass-half-full observers.

Tier VI

The “One year (maybe/hopefully) of quasi-starter level production, then you’re on your own” tier. The top half of this tier are safer bets to provide a full season of value, but they all have questions. Those four should all be more valuable as point scorers than the Young/Levis tier next year, but none hold any “dynasty value”.

Three of the eight will be coming off season-ending injuries. That should be the approximate expectation with this group again next year. All these players are dependent on the quality of the offenses they captain for production, but seven of the eight (looking at you, Daniel Dimes) are, in fact, currently surrounded by elite talent. I expect both Cousins and Mayfield to re-sign with their current teams, but their evaluations are subject to change should they not.

I listed the quarterback of the New York Jets but will no longer refer to him by name. I’m convinced he’s the NFL’s version of Beetlejuice. If you say or type his name three times, he’ll appear and start spouting nonsense conspiracy theories, and I don’t want to tempt fate. I don’t think he’s an actual good player, but nobody loves stat-padding more than he does, and the Jets could have a team full of enablers in ‘24.

Tier VII

In a just world, none of these would be starters. I expect none of this tier to make this list next year because they’ll all be backups by then. There are only two scenarios in which it would be acceptable to start any of these players:

  1. 16 Team, Two QB leagues for Sadomasochists!
  2. Subtly tanking Superflex teams

A contending Superflex team, by definition, would have better options to put in the flex every week than any of these.

What’s in the Box?!?! Tier

  • Caleb Williams
  • Drake Maye
  • Jayden Daniels
  • Michael Penix
  • JJ McCarthy
  • Bo Nix
  • Jordan Travis
  • Michael Pratt

Incoming! I expect the first four will be Day One starters with varying degrees of production expectation. The second group will be developmental types with varying degrees of bench time expectation.

Be sure you’re following Joel on Twitter. You can also find more of his Club Dynasty work here!

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