Before we get into Week 7, let’s look back at NFL Week 6 from a DFS standpoint. It was the lowest-scoring fantasy week of the season, which led to some interesting DFS Cash trends. If you scored over 135 DraftKings points, you were likely making money. But that likely depended on one decision we have to talk about.
Did you play Raheem Mostert?
If you did, congrats! You were in line with the majority of DFS Cash players. Mostert was rostered by all of my DraftKings head-to-head opponents and was over 70% rostered in my DraftKings 50/50 contest. Essentially, if you didn’t play him in DraftKings, you were sunk out the gate.
What is fascinating about Mostert is comparing his DraftKings and FanDuel usage. This encapsulates the impact of salary on DFS player’s decisions. Mostert was much more expensive on FanDuel, which led to him only being rostered in just over 20% of my 50/50 leagues and by only 40% of my head-to-head opponents. That led to me beating the other 60% because, without Mostert, you were likely struggling.
This comes with the territory of DFS Cash. There are going to be weeks where certain players are such obvious plays that you almost play them by default, recognizing that if they fail, most other DFS players will have him as well, and it will all wash out. But who will that player be in Week 7?
Now, let’s dig into Week 7 and find this week’s slate breaker.
Cash is in session.
NFL DFS Week 7
Cooper Kupp (DraftKings: $9,500 / FanDuel: $9,700)
All seems to be back to normal in the fantasy world, as Cooper Kupp is back to smashing expectations. Well, one of those things is true. Kupp is killing it, but there is no “normal” in fantasy football. I digress. The point is: Play Cooper Kupp. The Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing the fourth most points to opposing wide receivers, and Kupp is averaging double-digit targets since his return from injury. He seems a guarantee for 20 points on any given week, with the ceiling that can save a fledgling Cash lineup.
Geno Smith (DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $7,000)
While it feels that Geno Smith has regressed from his 2022 performances, he is still proving to be a solid fantasy football player, particularly in DFS Cash settings. While he has two games below 10 points, the rest of his performances have been over 15 points, which is plenty to hit the cash line. His FanDuel price is particularly notable to me, as he is the 12th-most expensive quarterback despite having the fourth-best matchup for quarterbacks against the Arizona Cardinals. I will almost certainly have him as a salary savings option, allowing me to pay up for players like Cooper Kupp.
Kenneth Walker (DraftKings: $7,000 / FanDuel: $8,800)
Kenneth Walker is my favorite running back play of the week. Walker has gotten at least 16 touches every game he has played this year, including 22 touches in last week’s game. Coming out of the bye week, the Seahawks seem ready to continue trusting Walker with the primary running back duties. Once again, we get a great running back matching up against the Arizona Cardinals defense, who have averaged over 30 points per game allowed to the running back position since Week 3. Need more convincing? The Seahawks are a touchdown favorite, so should be grinding it out this week. The only note I have is that I likely will not play both Geno Smith and Walker, but if that’s the only way to get your salary in order, I understand the play.
Aaron Jones (DraftKings: $6,800 / FanDuel: $7,700)
The memory of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane destroying the Broncos still looms large in fantasy managers’ brains. While that game was definitely an outlier, Denver has still struggled against the run, allowing over 150 rush yards in three of their last four games. Aaron Jones is expected to return this week after getting much-needed rest during the bye week. In his one full game this year, he was targeted on four occasions, demonstrating his continued ability to get it down on the ground and through the air. If Jones returns this week, he’s a solid play if you need to save money from the likes of Kenneth Walker.
Jakobi Meyers (DraftKings: $6,200 / FanDuel: $7,400)
Who could have called Jakobi Meyers becoming such a prominent part of the Las Vegas Raiders offense? Well, many of us, but apparently not Bill Belichick. Meyers has been a PPR dream, getting consistent targets when on the field. That is all the rationale I need to drop him in my cash lineups this week, as we target opportunities as much as talent. While the Chicago Bears, at first glance, seem to be a tough opponent for wide receivers, this is more associated with the fact that teams can typically run all over the Bears and don’t need to throw the ball. But the Raiders have struggled running the ball, so I expect them to stay fairly balanced in what should be a close game.
Check the Chalkboard
Matthew Stafford (DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: $6,700)
Matthew Stafford has been the epitome of consistency this year. He has yet to have a game worse than 13 DraftKings points while rarely breaking over 20. He is a solid Cash play this week, especially with Kryen Williams out, as the Rams will turn more to the passing game against a struggling Pittsburgh secondary. The Steelers have averaged 19 points allowed to opposing quarterbacks since Week 3, which is exactly what we need for Stafford to cash.
Luke Musgrave (DraftKings: $3,300 / FanDuel: $5,000)
While we have focused on Denver’s inability to stop the run, we seem to have skipped over the fact that they are also struggling against tight ends. That’s right, the Broncos have allowed the most points to opposing tight ends. The Green Bay Packers have quickly integrated Luke Musgrave into their game plan, targeting him nearly five times per game, including two games of over five targets. Coming out of their bye week, I expect the Packers to have a game plan ready to exploit Denver’s weaknesses, including getting Musgrave the ball early and often.
Back of the Classroom Studs
Isiah Pacheco (DraftKings: $6,100 / FanDuel: $7,400)
It has been incredible to me to watch how the Kansas City Chiefs’ run game has progressed this year. Isiah Pacheco is such an exciting player to watch, and he gets a dream matchup this week. The Los Angeles Chargers continue to struggle against the run, giving up the ninth-most points to opposing running backs and the sixth-most since Week 3. With the highest implied team total of any team on the slate, I expect Kansas City to play from ahead and give Pacheco opportunities to score and pay off his salary.
Drake London (DraftKings: $5,100 / FanDuel: $6,900)
The Atlanta Falcons finally decided to pepper their best players with targets, setting Drake London up for a nine-catch, 125-yard day in Week 6. Now, London gets a matchup against Tampa Bay, who is allowing the ninth-most points to fantasy wide receivers. That number has been slightly elevated since Week 3, where they are giving up the eighth-most points to the position. London is too good of a play with too good of a target share to fail at his price this week.
D’Onta Foreman (DraftKings: $4,800 / FanDuel: $6,300)
The cheap running back options this week are challenging to decipher. I was a big D’Onta Foreman proponent during the preseason, expecting his performance for Carolina to carry over into 2023. He has instead been third on the depth chart, waiting for injuries to give him opportunities. I am most encouraged by the fact that he got 15 touches in his first outing. With Justin Fields likely missing this week, the Bears should look to run the ball, making Tyson Bagent’s life easier. If Foreman gets another 15 to 20 touches against the tenth-best matchup for running backs, he should easily pay off his salary.
Michael Wilson (DraftKings: $3,800 / FanDuel: $5,400)
Michael Wilson has been fairly quiet over the past few weeks but is still getting valuable targets. While a 9.8-point performance in Week 6 may have you avoiding Wilson, just look at his salary. With Wilson positioned below $4,000 on DraftKings, a 10-point performance is all we need, and oh, by the way, the Seattle Seahawks are the best team for opposing wide receivers. If you’re trying to get Cooper Kupp in your lineup, you need that salary savings.
Cade Otton (DraftKings: $2,900 / FanDuel: $4,700)
So Logan Thomas didn’t beat up on the Falcons linebackers the way I expected last week. But I am keeping the faith and looking to Cade Otton to fall into the endzone this week. Otton has continued to be a prominent route runner for the Buccaneers, and with Atlanta’s struggles against the tight end position, he is a solid punt play at tight end.
Baltimore Ravens (DraftKings: $2,500 / FanDuel: $4,100)
This is one of the more shocking salaries on the slate. The Baltimore Ravens’ defense has been solid this year, recording at least three sacks in all but one game and forcing at least one turnover in all but one game. Sure, the Detroit Lions are one of the better offenses they have faced, but that shouldn’t prevent the Ravens from being frisky on defense. Plus, this game is in Baltimore. While Jared Goff has been better on the road this year, history tells us he struggles outside of Detroit.
Atlanta Falcons (DraftKings: $2,800 / FanDuel: $3,600)
The Atlanta Falcons have been a volatile defense this year but have demonstrated an ability to get pressure on the quarterback and force turnovers at times. Because of this, I have them in my player pool, but in fairness, I am playing the Ravens everywhere unless I need to save salary on FanDuel. In that case, I will look to the Falcons and bet on a Baker Mayfield turnover and a tough outing from the Buccaneers’ offensive line.
- A: Scored over three times their price
- B: Scored over two times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
|New England Patriots||$2,600||3||C|
- A: Scored over two times their price
- B: Scored over one and a half times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
|New England Patriots||$3,600||3||F|