It’s Week 17, and things are getting weird in the NFL. I just spent a Thursday night pulling for Joshua Dobbs because who doesn’t love an underdog story? Derek Carr has all but resigned from the Las Vegas Raiders, leaving Davante Adams alone with preseason DFS star Jarrett Stidham. And Mike White is ranked in my top ten this week, just ahead of Garner Minshew.
What could go wrong?
Fortunately, the fantasy gods have spared the Main Slate for another week, but winter is coming. And by winter, I mean Week 18, the week where teams go the extra mile in saving their star players and fantasy managers waste countless hours ensuring their no-brainer starters are actually playing.
And if you’re thinking about pivoting away from DFS after Week 17, not so fast. I’ll be here through Week 18 and through the NFL playoffs for all your DFS Cash advice. Keep in mind that as fantasy championships end, new people may choose to try out DFS, which means there are opportunities to be had. Or maybe you are the person designing your first DFS lineup and looking for a leg up over the competition. If so, welcome to The A List. Let’s win some cash.
Cash is in session.
NFL DFS Week 17
NFL DFS Week 17
Travis Etienne (DraftKings: $6,400 / FanDuel: $7,700)
There are few matchups better than Travis Etienne against the Houston Texans this week. Houston has continued to be abysmal against opposing running backs, giving up the third most points to the position since Week 13. And while this wasn’t enough for the Tennessee Titans to take advantage, I expect much better outcomes from the Jaguars and Etienne on Sunday.
While Etienne has been slightly underperforming in recent weeks, he has continued to provide a safe floor and is a good candidate for positive touchdown regression. He has put up over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his past two games, including that matchup against the stout Jets defense. Additionally, he has only put up four touchdowns on the season, with his last one coming in Week 9. With everything working in his favor, Etienne has the opportunity to be a slate-breaker.
Jared Goff (DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $7,400)
It’s comedic that the analysis on Jared Goff can amount to “is he playing at home or in a dome,” but here we are. For the record, the answer is yes; Goff is playing at home and in a dome this week. But besides the fact that Goff loves being indoors, he has a cakewalk of an opponent in the Chicago Bears.
The Bears have given up the most points to opposing quarterbacks since Week 13. To be fair, they have faced the likes of Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts in that time. But also, they gave up 300 yards and three touchdowns to Mike White. And while I love Mike White, he is still in the Jared Goff tier of quarterbacks. The primary concern here is that Chicago is a six-point underdog, so Goff could get game-scripted out, but I believe Justin Fields keeps this game close, pushing the Lions to keep airing it out.
Saquon Barkley (DraftKings: $8,000 / FanDuel: $9,200)
Welcome back to The A List, Saquon Barkley. It’s been way too long. After a four-week slump, Barkley has returned to his early season performance over the past two weeks, scoring at least 20 DraftKings points on both occasions. This is terrible news for the Indianapolis Colts, who have given up the most points to opposing running backs since Week 13, averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points allowed per game. However, with Barkley a constant touchdown threat and continuing to be involved in the passing game, he should be an anchor piece of everyone’s Cash lineup.
Garrett Wilson (DraftKings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $7,300)
I’m so happy Mike White is back under center for the Jets. And you know what? I’m thankful for Zach Wilson. You know why? Thanks to Wilson, Garrett Wilson’s DraftKings value has dropped to a cool $5,500. As is typical, FanDuel has maintained Garrett Wilson’s high price, but on DraftKings, he is simply too cheap to avoid.
In the three games, Mike White has started this season, Wilson has averaged 22.5 DraftKings points, racking up 19 catches on 30 targets. And as almost any pundit would tell you, White has the locker room, which is huge in terms of Wilson’s success.
Tyreek Hill (DraftKings: $8,900 / FanDuel: $9,000)
With Tua Tagovailoa out this week, DFS players may be wary of rostering Tyreek Hill. But it turns out some of Hill’s best performances this season came with Teddy Bridgewater under center. So the most relevant data point here is Week 6, where Hill had his best performance of the season, recording 32.7 DraftKings points with Bridgewater running the offense. Needless to say, Hill is quarterback-proof.
Lastly, the New England Patriots have provided a favorable matchup for opposing receivers, allowing the fifth most points since Week 13. The Dolphins are underdogs in this matchup, but the spread is close at 2.5 points. With that, there should be plenty of pass opportunities to get Hill to return on value.
Before you set your Week 17 NFL DFS lineups, be sure to check out Austin and Ryan’s weekly rankings!
Check the Chalkboard
Justin Fields (DraftKings: $7,900 / FanDuel: $8,400)
Many fantasy managers in their championship matchup are thankful Justin Fields returned to the field last week. Even if you were eliminated while Fields was out, you could still relive those glory days as he takes on the Detroit Lions, who allowed 43.38 DraftKings points to Fields the last time they played.
Now, I tend to be careful correlating in-season matchups and assuming what happened in one game will repeat itself. But even if Fields fails to hit that 40-point ceiling again, he is poised to put up points, as the Bears are underdogs and will need to rely on him to stay involved. And as was the case last week, there is plenty of wide receiver value on the slate to allow you to pay up for both Fields and a running back.
Tyler Conklin (DraftKings: $2,900 / FanDuel: $4,900)
I am probably too excited that Mike White is starting. I think I’m just making up for my Week 15 article that was filled with New York Jets until White was ruled out. But I just love this Jets offense with him under center, which is why Tyler Conklin is a prominent punt target this week. In three weeks with White at quarterback, Conklin brought in 18 targets, averaging six per game. Any tight end getting six targets and valued under $3,000 on DraftKings is worth the start. Lock it in.
Back of the Classroom Studs
Brian Robinson (DraftKings: $5,200 / FanDuel: $6,900)
The Washington Football Team takes on Cleveland, who have admittedly improved against running backs in recent weeks, ranking 15th against the position since Week 13. That said, Brian Robinson is likely to get most of the work and was putting up decent numbers against the San Francisco 49ers before Washington turned away from him.
Additionally, Antonio Gibson is on the injury report and, as of this article, has yet to practice this week. Robinson will see increased usage and possibly more pass-catching work if Gibson sits. Even if Gibson plays, I imagine they will ride with Robinson to manage Gibson’s health. Even in a neutral matchup, Robinson is a solid value play as Washington looks to run the ball to stay on schedule.
Zonovan Knight (DraftKings: $5,100 / FanDuel: $6,400)
As much as I try, it is hard to go a week without picking three players from the same team. I just love this spot for the Jets as they face off against the Seattle Seahawks, who have given up the fifth-most points to opposing running backs since Week 13. And while I wouldn’t recommend rostering all three Jets players named in this article, you could certainly pick two of the three and find success.
The Jets are 2.5-point favorites, so even though they’re favored to win, it isn’t a sure thing, and they will likely need to continue to move the ball to stay in the lead. Because of this, I can easily tell a story with Garrett Wilson recording seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, Tyler Conklin bringing in three for 30, and Zonovan Knight rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown. In that scenario, you would feel good about all three players. (It also means this is a fun team to stack in tournament settings)
Drake London (DraftKings: $4,900 / FanDuel: $6,700)
Why yes, this is the second consecutive week I’ve selected Drake London for The A List. And look, I get it. The Falcons are rough from a football perspective. But come on, $4,900 for Drake London? If I told you a player was averaging over 10 targets, you would think they were at least valued at $6,000 on DraftKings, which is what he has done since Week 12. In fact, he has more targets than Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Christian Watson in that span.
And I know not all targets are created equally. And while it’s not fun to watch, London is getting targets and hitting his cash line, recording seven catches in each of his last two matchups. Desmond Ridder, while still developing, has been an improvement for the Falcons’ pass game, and London has been his favorite target, with a 35.7% target share in Ridder’s two starts. That leads all wide receivers at that time. Meet me at the London.
D.J. Moore (DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $7,000)
No, don’t worry; you are definitely reading the Week 17 article, despite two repeat receiver picks. Sometimes I seriously question how the DFS sites set their player values because D.J. Moore is simply too cheap. Since Sam Darnold came under center in Week 12, Moore ranks 25th in DraftKings scoring amongst wide receivers, including a bye week and that dud performance against the Seahawks. Since Week 15, he’s 12th.
If we take that Seattle game as an outlier, Moore has averaged 20.6 DraftKings points per game with Darnold at quarterback. His target share is approaching 30%, and he has scored three touchdowns. D.J. Moore? Scoring touchdowns? Yes, it happens when Sam Darnold is throwing the ball. Who Knew?
Noah Fant (DraftKings: $3,400 / FanDuel: $5,200)
I can never read Noah Fant’s name without hearing Matthew Berry say, “he’s Noah Fantastic.” And while it’s hard for me to get excited about any tight end, Fant is an excellent punt play this week, particularly if you are trying to decide which of the three Jets players from this article to bench.
As great of a matchup as this is on the Jets’ side, the Jets present opportunities for opposing tight ends, allowing the fifth most points since Week 13. During that same period of time, Noah Fant has been TE9 in DraftKings scoring. Add to that the fact that Will Dissly is likely out for another week, and you have yourself a dream punt play.
Carolina Panthers (DraftKings: $2,400 / FanDuel $3,500)
Need to save money at defense? I frequently like targeting the Panthers, as they have the ceiling to pay dividends while rarely bottoming out. And this week, they have something to play for because with a win against Tampa Bay, they keep the door open for an NFC South championship. Also, with the Buccaneers’ ongoing offensive line struggles, I like the Panthers for their opportunity to pressure Tom Brady into sacks and mistakes.
New England Patriots (DraftKings: $2,600 / FanDuel: $4,000)
Once again, the New England Patriots are a sub-$3,000 defense on DraftKings, while they’ve been priced up slightly on FanDuel. Last week they were the number one defense despite getting routed by Cincinnati in the first half. They will be challenged once again against the Miami Dolphins, but when these teams met in Week 1, the Patriots still managed a safe floor of four points. With them priced so cheaply, you’ll take that seven days a week.
- A: Scored over three times their price
- B: Scored over two times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||$7,800||14.6||C|
|New England Patriots||$2,700||14||A|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||$8,400||11.1||C|
|New England Patriots||$4,500||14||A|
Looking for more Week 17 NFL DFS plays with the best possible matchups? Our Weekly Matchup Report gives you that info every Wednesday.